Improbable-Distribution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.54K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

19.3%

Resolved

Trades

241

lifetime

Volume

$25.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 05-21 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 27% $-1,538

Sports

1% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1772717400	2	$4.3K	3,317	3,280	+37	open	—	03-05 13:45
btc updown 5m 1772717100	2	$2.1K	1,533	1,510	+23	open	—	03-05 13:30
btc updown 15m 1772712000	2	$1.4K	1,143	1,134	+8	open	—	03-05 12:15
btc updown 15m 1767698100	2	$1.1K	1,049	997	+52	open	—	01-06 11:28
btc updown 15m 1767720600	2	$882	622	622	+0	open	—	01-06 17:45
btc updown 15m 1767708000	1	$825	2,383	0	+2,383	open	—	01-06 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	4	$742	6,863	0	+6,863	Up	$-742	05-06 00:55
btc updown 15m 1772629200	2	$651	484	476	+8	open	—	03-04 13:11
btc updown 5m 1772709000	2	$649	459	452	+7	open	—	03-05 11:15
btc updown 15m 1767722400	1	$616	1,980	0	+1,980	open	—	01-06 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$594	1,654	0	+1,654	open	—	04-26 21:41
btc updown 5m 1772717400	1	$497	1,699	0	+1,699	open	—	03-05 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$495	1,106	0	+1,106	Down	$-495	05-06 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	4	$461	1,403	0	+1,403	Up	$-461	05-06 01:48
btc updown 15m 1767719700	2	$449	269	269	+0	open	—	01-06 17:30
btc updown 5m 1772716200	1	$436	1,656	0	+1,656	open	—	03-05 13:12
btc updown 5m 1772709600	2	$397	304	300	+4	open	—	03-05 11:24
btc updown 15m 1776866400	3	$391	335	317	+19	open	—	04-22 14:16
btc updown 15m 1772630100	1	$361	805	0	+805	open	—	03-04 13:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	2	$328	295	295	+0	Up	+$209	05-05 03:12
btc updown 5m 1772708400	2	$319	208	205	+3	open	—	03-05 11:04
btc updown 15m 1772628300	2	$303	204	201	+3	open	—	03-04 12:57
btc updown 15m 1767696300	2	$278	182	182	+0	open	—	01-06 10:56
btc updown 5m 1772707200	2	$276	175	173	+3	open	—	03-05 10:45
btc updown 15m 1767718800	5	$269	184	184	+0	open	—	01-06 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$246	853	0	+853	open	—	04-26 17:01
btc updown 5m 1772706000	3	$219	153	151	+2	open	—	03-05 10:24
nba nop ind 2026 01 16	2	$181	110	110	+0	open	—	01-17 02:13
btc updown 15m 1772627400	2	$179	96	95	+0	open	—	03-04 12:40
sol updown 15m 1770257700	1	$146	325	0	+325	open	—	02-05 02:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 15:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	101	44¢	$44	0x1eaffb…
05-21 15:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x97f5dc…
05-21 15:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	137	18¢	$25	0x5dc2f4…
05-15 23:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	89	39¢	$35	0x3576ea…
05-15 23:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x8c92a7…
05-15 23:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x4bec30…
05-15 23:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x37204b…
05-15 23:17:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	81¢	$5	0x3f21fa…
05-15 23:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x7d3a9f…
05-15 23:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	81	37¢	$30	0xbc0d69…
05-15 23:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	42	82¢	$35	0x64cc94…
05-15 23:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x287d3c…
05-12 00:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0xc50380…
05-12 00:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0xcd8ed8…
05-12 00:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x02e36f…
05-12 00:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0xe87217…
05-06 02:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	172	32¢	$55	0xeb9306…
05-06 02:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	684	44¢	$300	0xe87905…
05-06 02:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	422	46¢	$195	0xb9c75e…
05-06 01:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	227	10¢	$22	0x085071…
05-06 01:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x4c4a4e…
05-06 01:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x4f3977…
05-06 01:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	316	18¢	$56	0x78fad0…
05-06 01:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	995	37¢	$371	0x9e407d…
05-06 01:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	72	40¢	$29	0x911c4d…
05-06 01:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x5823d1…
05-06 01:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x60eca8…
05-06 00:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1,608	6¢	$95	0xed79fe…
05-06 00:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1,942	10¢	$190	0xdc33da…
05-06 00:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2,394	16¢	$381	0x7b4b12…
05-06 00:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	918	8¢	$77	0xc8d549…
05-05 03:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	295	91¢	$269	0xb2e874…
05-05 03:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	295	20¢	$60	0x89b300…
05-05 03:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0xdffbdd…
05-05 03:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	65	39¢	$25	0xaca04c…
05-04 21:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	71	27¢	$19	0x509444…
05-03 22:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x1eb634…
05-03 22:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfd56ba…
05-03 19:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	160	10¢	$16	0xe0091b…
05-03 03:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	122	37¢	$45	0x49bc8a…
05-03 03:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	46	26¢	$12	0x99aad1…
05-03 02:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x233f13…
05-03 02:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa26265…
05-03 02:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x60741d…
05-01 17:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xe4b510…
05-01 17:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xc46a26…
05-01 17:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x9e1c09…
05-01 17:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x679b5e…
05-01 17:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x882410…
05-01 17:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x6ba4db…
05-01 17:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x40d02e…
04-30 17:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x5ddf54…
04-30 17:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x975bd2…
04-30 17:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x00b293…
04-30 17:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x296523…
04-29 17:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x9c4f95…
04-29 17:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfb8652…
04-29 17:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x4621ba…
04-29 17:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xc8f95d…
04-29 17:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4a0fc4…
04-29 17:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	165	33¢	$55	0x1e192f…
04-29 17:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x4760a9…
04-29 17:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x4fe5f5…
04-29 17:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x57d0dd…
04-29 17:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf26ceb…
04-29 17:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	122	12¢	$15	0x25f026…
04-29 17:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x680adf…
04-26 21:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	700	14¢	$99	0xa53fac…
04-26 21:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1,023	33¢	$338	0x8fe4f0…
04-26 21:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	631	41¢	$256	0x791aec…
04-26 21:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0xae6d30…
04-26 21:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1,284	7¢	$93	0x6a24fc…
04-26 21:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x96475f…
04-26 17:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	853	29¢	$246	0x9dd6ce…
04-26 16:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	259	30¢	$78	0x01d225…
04-26 16:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	79	99¢	$78	0x6f8c50…
04-26 16:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	81	50¢	$41	0xb30cef…
04-25 17:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	43	25¢	$11	0x965136…
04-25 16:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	331	31¢	$104	0x50b131…
04-25 16:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x6a44ef…
04-25 16:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	111	26¢	$29	0x93f321…
04-25 00:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	52	30¢	$16	0x0ce729…
04-25 00:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd3a11d…
04-24 14:38:12	btc updown 15m 1777041000	Down	BUY	429	10¢	$44	0x6ee102…
04-23 13:46:50	btc updown 5m 1776951900	Down	BUY	271	25¢	$68	0x10a716…
04-23 13:44:58	btc updown 5m 1776951600	Down	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xc49554…
04-23 13:43:06	btc updown 15m 1776951000	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x51533a…
04-23 13:41:16	btc updown 5m 1776951600	Down	BUY	47	38¢	$18	0x9ccdac…
04-23 13:40:44	btc updown 5m 1776951300	Down	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xd68629…
04-23 13:36:30	btc updown 5m 1776951300	Down	BUY	47	40¢	$19	0x647e7c…
04-22 14:16:10	btc updown 15m 1776866400	Up	SELL	317	99¢	$314	0x13b7f9…
04-22 14:06:00	btc updown 15m 1776866400	Up	BUY	283	18¢	$51	0x9f5e9b…
04-22 14:05:38	btc updown 5m 1776866400	Up	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0xc9a0d2…
04-22 14:02:00	btc updown 15m 1776866400	Up	BUY	52	51¢	$27	0x7f9d00…
04-22 14:01:12	btc updown 5m 1776866400	Up	BUY	54	30¢	$16	0x0f46fd…
04-20 14:10:22	btc updown 15m 1776693600	Up	BUY	128	37¢	$47	0x5416fb…
04-17 13:25:40	btc updown 15m 1776431700	Up	BUY	168	63¢	$106	0x6377ef…
04-17 13:25:12	btc updown 5m 1776432000	Up	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x7f816c…
04-17 13:21:28	btc updown 5m 1776432000	Up	BUY	108	40¢	$43	0xf10b9e…
04-17 13:18:52	btc updown 5m 1776431700	Up	BUY	249	17¢	$42	0x57a236…