Ill-Informed-Ownership — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

391

Trades

869

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 11-09 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Other

74% 73% -$13

Crypto

20% 75% +$0

Politics

4% 57% $0

Sports

1% 77% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	4	$80	40	40	+0	Yes	$0	08-28 11:19
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	4	$74	46	29	+17	No	+$0	08-10 15:08
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-15 18:17
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-30 07:57
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 24?	7	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-24 05:04
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	6	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:20
ethereum above 1600 on july 30 2026	2	$59	30	30	+0	Yes	$0	07-29 22:00
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	4	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-19 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 25?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-25 02:34
bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-27 07:32
will solana dip to 50 june 22 28 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-28 15:31
ethereum above 1700 on july 20 2026	3	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	07-20 13:28
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 24?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-24 17:55
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 13?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	08-12 22:38
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on July 27?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-27 11:58
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 28?	5	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-28 08:43
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on August 7?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-07 17:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on July 30?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-30 00:18
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 26?	4	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-26 06:19
will slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the office of the special prosecutor and national crime agency 20260623184301115	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-05 00:51
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 22?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-22 16:25
ethereum above 1600 on july 13 2026	4	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	07-13 14:02
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on August 9?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	08-09 05:39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on July 4?	4	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-04 02:00
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	6	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	08-11 10:03
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 23?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-23 17:55
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 7?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	08-07 21:03
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28?	3	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	06-27 20:22
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-29 08:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $68,000 on July 6?	2	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-06 07:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 00:13:31	Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4860f2…
11-09 00:12:36	Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x0dcd21…
11-02 05:29:30	Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x638d4b…
10-19 22:42:12	Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x99c9a8…
09-01 11:13:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x436ba6…
09-01 04:29:55	bitcoin above 84k on september 1 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x93af41…
09-01 04:28:39	Will there be 6 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x654af0…
09-01 04:00:12	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x0ad751…
09-01 03:27:58	Will Epic Games have the highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x6d3e83…
09-01 02:12:12	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x87b3f8…
08-31 20:20:37	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xdd9bc1…
08-31 20:20:37	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9f28dd…
08-31 20:20:37	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2e686c…
08-31 19:37:51	Will there be 6 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x93ab14…
08-31 15:38:21	bitcoin above 84k on september 1 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf512a7…
08-31 12:53:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 31?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xb81f3e…
08-31 12:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4b2b43…
08-31 05:59:58	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x7c2254…
08-31 04:47:31	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x299ebd…
08-31 02:06:52	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xa9c6f5…
08-30 23:53:45	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x834d07…
08-30 23:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xce10e7…
08-30 22:49:57	Will Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x576d4e…
08-30 20:53:24	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5aae95…
08-30 18:40:36	Will Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5bd62f…
08-30 13:38:46	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xb964ef…
08-30 13:37:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xb35fb3…
08-30 12:32:54	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x4f171a…
08-30 10:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x155f21…
08-30 01:18:55	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 30?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe19558…
08-30 00:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on August 30?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x370c4d…
08-29 21:18:36	will bitcoin reach 82k on august 29 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9c16af…
08-29 18:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa9bc53…
08-29 14:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on August 30?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x19f2f1…
08-29 11:48:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 29?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x2a38c3…
08-28 18:17:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6f74f0…
08-28 17:50:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 29?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xaba3ca…
08-28 12:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 29?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x30fe72…
08-28 11:19:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$23	0x21adb7…
08-28 02:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on August 28?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x4b4f85…
08-28 01:05:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0xea5348…
08-27 22:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on August 28?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x35b6e7…
08-27 17:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 27?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0x3200c1…
08-27 17:15:42	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xb04620…
08-27 17:14:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x9e9683…
08-27 16:46:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x61d7b2…
08-27 15:27:27	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xccb6c2…
08-27 10:45:51	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc5b6dd…
08-27 07:32:12	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xf97bfc…
08-27 05:54:15	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd99694…
08-27 04:51:48	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x53084c…
08-27 03:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 27?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x7c5c03…
08-27 01:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on August 26?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb7f6ea…
08-26 22:12:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 27?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x34ba9d…
08-26 17:59:55	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 27?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8b90b7…
08-26 12:34:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fae07…
08-26 10:54:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on August 26?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4ef7dd…
08-25 17:53:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 25?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$19	0xe35c98…
08-25 11:15:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on August 25?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x68c460…
08-25 10:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x71fed7…
08-25 10:07:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C or higher on August 25?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x71ed4f…
08-25 10:07:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on August 25?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf77db2…
08-25 08:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0228a0…
08-25 05:32:15	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on August 25?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xfb36bb…
08-25 05:12:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xb7fa63…
08-25 05:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x56ce15…
08-25 03:53:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa37d8c…
08-25 00:34:33	will bitcoin dip to 74k on august 24 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x3bc364…
08-24 20:40:06	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6ea97a…
08-23 20:54:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 24?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0xc0157d…
08-23 20:52:37	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x69574b…
08-23 19:05:45	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2885e7…
08-23 15:02:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 24?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xb81291…
08-15 03:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfa2d04…
08-15 03:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf89bf2…
08-15 03:56:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf976e8…
08-15 03:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x88f3a2…
08-14 21:26:18	will bitcoin reach 64k on august 14	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8e3fec…
08-14 20:20:31	will ng dip to 2 10 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb71d12…
08-14 19:41:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C or higher on August 15?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xbd3079…
08-14 19:00:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd6f43d…
08-14 19:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C or higher on August 15?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x84d9e7…
08-14 18:45:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C or higher on August 15?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5887ed…
08-14 12:40:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C or higher on August 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x3de3c2…
08-14 10:09:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 14?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5530dc…
08-14 10:00:04	will ng dip to 2 10 by august 10 2026	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x662d45…
08-14 07:36:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or below on August 15?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x712de5…
08-14 03:50:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc72802…
08-14 02:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or below on August 15?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf3686b…
08-13 22:43:24	will ng dip to 2 10 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb88665…
08-13 11:23:45	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x189351…
08-13 11:23:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on August 13?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x0f1f26…
08-13 09:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on August 13?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x40d135…
08-13 07:56:36	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x6bee99…
08-13 06:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 13?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xb54116…
08-13 06:33:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 13?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x726e6c…
08-13 06:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 13?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x575fae…
08-13 06:22:57	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3148ab…
08-13 05:18:04	solana above 80 on august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd076ad…
08-13 03:02:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 13?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xeb5430…