Fine-Capitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$153.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.03K

Hit rate

46.6%

Resolved

906

Trades

21,053

lifetime

Volume

$3.56M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$169

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 17:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 197 days

Categories

Other

75% 44% +$151,187

Sports

20% 42% +$23,011

Politics

5% 16% -$14,819

Tech

0% 0% -$6,116

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 235 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes		+30	$5	52¢	$16	+$11	08-17 18:47
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+0	$2,038	3¢	$0	-$2,038	08-11 23:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	264	$171.1K	155,751	114,249	+41,502	No	-$3,707	03-04 19:52
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	518	$86.7K	134,983	61,270	+73,713	No	+$21,284	05-30 18:59
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	569	$85.3K	158,679	20,738	+137,941	Yes	-$33,904	05-30 18:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	94	$79.5K	135,218	135,217	+0	No	+$3,600	05-28 19:12
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	742	$72.5K	245,004	0	+245,004	Yes	-$3,764	04-12 22:17
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?	123	$69.1K	111,111	47,200	+63,911	No	+$70,792	04-26 17:53
crint aus zwe 2026 02 13	235	$58.0K	97,831	40,010	+57,821	Zimbabwe	+$72,401	02-13 08:58
lal mad rso 2026 03 07 mad	46	$53.7K	83,337	16,671	+66,666	Yes	-$348	03-07 17:11
crint afg zaf 2026 02 11	412	$48.4K	55,735	55,658	+76	South Africa	+$8,609	02-11 09:20
crint nam nld 2026 02 10	227	$44.9K	95,873	36,263	+59,609	Netherlands	-$26,236	02-10 08:02
crint lka omn 2026 02 12	47	$42.4K	34,996	9,997	+24,999	Sri Lanka	+$2,110	02-12 07:30
Titans vs. Giants	1	$39.6K	90,000	0	+90,000	Giants	-$39,600	09-27 15:36
crint pak usa 2026 02 10	338	$39.4K	48,441	0	+48,441	Pakistan	+$9,053	02-10 13:25
epl mun mac 2026 01 17 mun	34	$37.5K	55,000	0	+55,000	Yes	-$32,500	01-17 12:02
epl lee mac 2026 02 28 mac	36	$36.8K	45,553	21,290	+24,263	Yes	+$10,072	02-28 17:49
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	63	$34.3K	83,049	0	+83,049	Cavaliers	+$48,700	10-26 23:25
Texans vs. Jaguars	3	$33.0K	75,000	0	+75,000	Texans	-$33,000	10-18 14:37
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	123	$32.9K	38,937	33,333	+5,604	Yes	-$460	05-19 16:44
epl ars liv 2026 01 08 ars	157	$31.8K	65,221	20,596	+44,625	No	+$28,442	01-08 06:50
76ers vs. Knicks	20	$31.2K	78,082	78,082	+0	Knicks	+$1,562	05-06 21:34
Cardinals vs. Rams	21	$31.0K	75,930	0	+75,930	Cardinals	+$44,914	10-18 22:50
nba min mia 2026 01 03	2	$30.1K	35,000	35,000	+0	Timberwolves	+$0	01-03 20:41
ucl qar1 new 2026 02 18 new	4	$29.7K	110,000	0	+110,000	Yes	-$29,700	02-18 17:17
epl ars che 2026 03 01 ars	6	$29.0K	80,555	2,208	+78,347	Yes	-$27,377	03-01 16:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	49	$27.1K	197,964	21,077	+176,888	No	-$19,813	03-24 18:46
crint ita npl 2026 02 12	120	$26.2K	45,652	46,675	-1,022	Italy	+$1,152	02-12 09:35
nfl lv hou 2026 08 21	138	$26.1K	57,941	0	+57,941	Raiders	-$26,074	08-20 23:58
ucl int2 bog1 2026 02 24 bog1	106	$23.8K	40,011	29,953	+10,058	Yes	+$27,045	02-24 21:50
2026 3m open top20 jason day	29	$23.0K	25,556	0	+25,556	No	+$2,565	07-22 14:27
cbb illst wake 2026 03 22	60	$21.8K	28,941	15,628	+13,313	Illinois State Redbirds	+$22,713	03-22 23:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:31:53	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	No	BUY	3,549	26¢	$923	0xa8cf4d…
10-29 16:16:07	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	No	BUY	7,393	26¢	$1,922	0x55b314…
10-29 14:59:47	AE Prat vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	11,106	34¢	$3,776	0x2e8719…
10-29 14:59:46	AE Prat vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xfd25fb…
10-29 11:35:41	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x8aee72…
10-29 00:08:07	Auriense CA vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	80	20¢	$16	0x804edc…
10-28 23:02:13	FC Barcelona leading at halftime?	No	BUY	168	26¢	$44	0xf7f05f…
10-27 18:53:29	CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	87	39¢	$34	0x2a0404…
10-27 16:22:42	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	19,596	49¢	$9,602	0x8cd678…
10-27 16:22:41	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb8650b…
10-27 16:22:27	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	399	49¢	$196	0xe7d6a4…
10-27 16:09:35	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	76	54¢	$41	0x0930e9…
10-27 15:05:20	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	10,000	50¢	$5,000	0x0a240d…
10-27 15:04:29	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	10,000	50¢	$5,000	0xad910f…
10-26 23:25:33	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	11,111	34¢	$3,778	0xf082ce…
10-26 23:24:57	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	8,080	37¢	$2,990	0x3a6757…
10-26 23:24:57	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0x1faf54…
10-26 23:24:57	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x168cdc…
10-26 23:24:56	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xdf15d2…
10-26 23:24:56	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xb5b102…
10-26 23:24:56	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xa41bd9…
10-26 23:24:56	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x57d465…
10-26 23:24:56	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x0ad944…
10-26 23:24:54	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2,000	37¢	$740	0x68273e…
10-26 23:24:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	973	37¢	$360	0x882915…
10-26 23:24:24	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	7,721	39¢	$3,011	0xaab416…
10-26 23:24:20	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x621673…
10-26 23:24:18	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	3,374	39¢	$1,316	0x19e66a…
10-26 23:23:53	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	407	40¢	$163	0xfe3644…
10-26 23:23:53	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xfd2ea5…
10-26 23:23:53	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	407	40¢	$163	0xc3bde7…
10-26 23:23:53	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2,544	40¢	$1,017	0x362223…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc7337f…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	178	40¢	$71	0xaf8267…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	1,015	40¢	$406	0x93c84c…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2,390	40¢	$956	0x8e1c1c…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	1,500	40¢	$600	0x7aca2f…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2,381	40¢	$952	0x471eac…
10-26 23:23:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x10e04e…
10-26 23:23:50	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	230	40¢	$92	0xe01a79…
10-26 23:23:50	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x5b9e57…
10-26 23:23:06	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	29	43¢	$13	0xe39a90…
10-26 23:23:06	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc96509…
10-26 23:23:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xaf01db…
10-26 23:23:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	366	43¢	$157	0xaedd85…
10-26 23:23:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	49	43¢	$21	0x763cbd…
10-26 23:23:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x583824…
10-26 23:23:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	1,568	43¢	$674	0x372e02…
10-26 23:23:02	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	27	43¢	$12	0xc9ba71…
10-26 23:23:02	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x8b94f6…
10-26 23:23:02	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x79a28d…
10-26 23:23:02	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	31	43¢	$13	0x5df7b0…
10-26 23:23:00	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xec29ed…
10-26 23:23:00	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0xa2950d…
10-26 23:23:00	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	308	43¢	$132	0x8d43fd…
10-26 23:23:00	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	351	43¢	$151	0x407068…
10-26 23:22:59	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	36	43¢	$16	0xe8e629…
10-26 23:22:59	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	32	43¢	$14	0x9020e1…
10-26 23:22:57	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	53	43¢	$23	0xe40e55…
10-26 23:22:57	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xacc317…
10-26 23:22:45	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x7e7e9b…
10-26 23:22:45	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	88	43¢	$38	0x71c803…
10-26 23:22:42	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x0bcbc6…
10-26 23:22:36	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	708	43¢	$304	0xf09190…
10-26 23:22:36	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	4,713	43¢	$2,027	0x406572…
10-26 23:22:05	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xe7f673…
10-26 23:22:05	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x94fef6…
10-26 23:22:03	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	9,870	46¢	$4,540	0x69a7d6…
10-26 23:22:02	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xe2f360…
10-26 23:21:51	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10,000	46¢	$4,600	0x50db2e…
10-26 23:21:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	57	48¢	$27	0xb6e556…
10-26 23:21:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	7,589	48¢	$3,625	0x3168cd…
10-26 23:21:47	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xdd9d23…
10-26 23:21:47	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	357	48¢	$171	0x9dc520…
10-26 23:21:47	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	96	48¢	$46	0x94a11c…
10-26 23:21:47	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	1,497	48¢	$719	0x312a99…
10-26 23:21:47	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	399	48¢	$192	0x2c53b6…
10-18 22:50:02	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	113	36¢	$41	0x66c49a…
10-18 22:50:00	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	5,555	36¢	$2,000	0x69c857…
10-18 22:49:59	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	3,003	36¢	$1,081	0x8f489b…
10-18 22:49:08	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	234	36¢	$84	0x8c31ca…
10-18 22:49:06	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xdc27e1…
10-18 22:48:27	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	711	42¢	$298	0xe069a4…
10-18 22:48:27	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	29,448	41¢	$12,074	0xd60a29…
10-18 22:48:27	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	22,886	42¢	$9,612	0xa7813d…
10-18 22:48:27	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	1,243	42¢	$522	0x409648…
10-18 22:48:27	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	80	42¢	$33	0x195c3f…
10-18 22:48:26	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	8,414	42¢	$3,534	0x011f11…
10-18 22:48:21	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	160	41¢	$66	0xee2b81…
10-18 22:48:17	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	160	41¢	$66	0x99acb9…
10-18 22:48:11	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	160	41¢	$66	0xf15206…
10-18 22:48:11	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	3,405	41¢	$1,396	0xa8d9fd…
10-18 22:48:05	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0xbeb1e0…
10-18 22:48:03	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x086b7d…
10-18 22:47:56	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3f9827…
10-18 22:47:54	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6095d5…
10-18 22:47:54	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x31318d…
10-18 22:47:50	Cardinals vs. Rams	Cardinals	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0xdb73c1…
10-18 20:26:35	Steelers vs. Buccaneers	Steelers	BUY	147	66¢	$97	0xb561c2…
10-18 20:26:21	Steelers vs. Buccaneers	Steelers	BUY	39	66¢	$25	0x38a71c…