Optimal-Pajamas — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$376

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

93.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$29.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$325

Open exposure

$597

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-19 03:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 96% -$522

Other

34% 82% +$104

Tech

9% 100% +$44

Politics

5% 67% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OKX IPO in 2026?	No		-620	-$554	96¢	$-597	-$42	06-05 06:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$1.7K	885	885	+0	No	+$23	03-25 04:01
will bitcoin reach 77k on march 12	2	$1.7K	859	859	+0	No	+$2	03-12 16:11
will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	2	$1.5K	759	759	+0	No	+$5	03-11 19:37
will googl reach 420 in march	4	$1.5K	758	758	-0	No	+$7	03-11 14:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$1.2K	638	638	+0	Yes	+$29	07-29 18:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$1.2K	607	607	+0	No	+$3	07-18 11:53
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$1.2K	606	606	+0	Yes	+$5	06-30 14:00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	2	$1.2K	621	621	+0	Yes	+$37	08-19 02:21
will bitcoin dip to 74k january 26 1	2	$1.1K	545	545	+0	No	+$3	02-02 04:26
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	2	$1.1K	532	532	+0	No	+$1	03-01 02:23
will bitcoin dip to 52k february 23 march 1	2	$1.1K	530	530	+0	No	+$2	03-01 00:04
will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	2	$1.1K	529	529	+0	No	+$2	02-26 16:02
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	2	$1.1K	527	527	+0	No	+$1	02-23 14:42
bitcoin above 80k on february 13	8	$1.1K	526	526	+0	No	+$1	02-12 00:13
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$744	380	380	+0	No	+$5	06-04 09:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$706	356	356	+0	Yes	+$4	06-17 05:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$654	361	361	+0	Yes	+$40	03-19 03:13
will solana dip to 60 february 2 8	3	$602	490	116	+374	No	+$3	02-08 20:15
OKX IPO in 2026?	5	$554	0	620	-620	open	—	06-05 06:10
xrp above 1pt3 on february 5	1	$545	565	0	+565	No	-$545	02-05 14:29
bitcoin above 94k on february 4	1	$544	545	0	+545	No	+$1	02-02 14:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$541	0	543	-543	Yes	-$1	01-28 18:57
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$538	539	0	+539	No	+$2	01-05 14:25
solana above 130 on march 17	2	$525	263	263	+0	No	+$0	03-15 05:29
bitcoin above 82k on february 10	1	$525	525	0	+525	No	+$1	02-09 14:45
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 7	1	$521	522	0	+522	No	+$1	02-07 04:03
will ethereum reach 2450 on march 14	2	$499	250	250	+0	No	+$0	03-14 10:29
will bitcoin reach 79k on march 14	2	$499	250	250	+0	No	+$0	03-14 08:21
will bitcoin dip to 54k march 2 8	2	$449	225	225	+0	No	+$0	03-08 06:46
bitcoin above 60k on march 5	2	$449	225	225	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 03:05:49	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x467bfb…
08-19 02:21:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	621	99¢	$615	0x19cf9e…
08-01 03:14:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x08d6c1…
07-29 19:31:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	621	93¢	$578	0x085b54…
07-29 18:00:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	638	99¢	$634	0x038ac2…
07-18 11:53:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	638	95¢	$605	0x5868b5…
07-18 11:53:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	266	100¢	$264	0xd91fd9…
07-17 17:57:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	341	100¢	$340	0x4b8400…
07-02 04:29:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	607	99¢	$602	0x24b376…
06-30 14:00:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	606	100¢	$604	0xe660ed…
06-26 02:29:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	606	99¢	$599	0x3e4b5a…
06-23 15:46:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xba0072…
06-18 21:07:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0xde1bc5…
06-17 05:06:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	356	100¢	$355	0xf3f4d9…
06-06 06:27:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	356	99¢	$351	0xcb0b67…
06-05 06:10:42	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	SELL	395	89¢	$351	0x8dfdae…
06-05 05:50:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x3ecf9a…
06-04 09:23:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	390	99¢	$385	0x527ee2…
06-04 09:23:22	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	380	99¢	$375	0x985b60…
06-02 12:40:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	206	99¢	$203	0x70ea9f…
06-02 12:37:26	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xbfcb4e…
05-31 05:30:39	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x592fee…
05-29 16:53:07	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x457af5…
05-28 13:12:47	OKX IPO in 2026?	No	SELL	124	90¢	$111	0x4bad68…
05-09 09:19:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	380	97¢	$370	0x2008f5…
05-08 01:18:34	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	357	98¢	$349	0x7fae9a…
05-07 20:58:48	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xd0e583…
03-29 06:15:16	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of march	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x64e224…
03-27 00:36:47	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of march	No	BUY	21	95¢	$19	0x851947…
03-27 00:36:45	will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of march	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x92d6f5…
03-27 00:35:33	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xd313ed…
03-25 04:01:23	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	885	100¢	$882	0xe9661b…
03-19 03:13:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	361	96¢	$347	0x62c6b7…
03-16 12:33:53	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	885	97¢	$859	0x3c95cf…
03-15 05:29:01	solana above 130 on march 17	No	SELL	263	100¢	$263	0x524cc8…
03-14 17:51:05	will ethereum dip to 1800 on march 14	No	SELL	97	100¢	$97	0xf10c34…
03-14 10:29:47	will ethereum reach 2450 on march 14	No	SELL	250	100¢	$250	0x65ac7e…
03-14 08:21:21	will bitcoin reach 79k on march 14	No	SELL	250	100¢	$250	0x8bc1d2…
03-14 07:55:59	will ethereum dip to 1800 on march 14	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xe9d754…
03-14 07:55:23	will ethereum reach 2450 on march 14	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x46bbe6…
03-14 07:54:35	will bitcoin reach 79k on march 14	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x6408e1…
03-14 07:53:47	solana above 130 on march 17	No	BUY	263	100¢	$262	0xadcdb3…
03-12 16:11:35	will bitcoin reach 77k on march 12	No	SELL	859	100¢	$859	0x183b72…
03-12 11:19:49	will bitcoin reach 77k on march 12	No	BUY	859	100¢	$857	0x931aed…
03-12 11:19:27	solana all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf5dbc6…
03-11 19:37:23	will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	No	SELL	759	100¢	$757	0x595fc7…
03-11 14:43:55	will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	No	BUY	759	99¢	$752	0xda91ae…
03-11 14:43:19	will googl reach 420 in march	No	SELL	758	99¢	$752	0x357dd9…
03-09 01:08:33	will googl reach 420 in march	No	BUY	176	99¢	$174	0xc6c291…
03-09 01:07:43	will googl reach 420 in march	No	BUY	407	98¢	$400	0x77e33c…
03-09 01:07:23	will googl reach 420 in march	No	BUY	174	98¢	$171	0xccfed2…
03-09 01:05:25	solana all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x08a99d…
03-08 06:46:47	will bitcoin dip to 54k march 2 8	No	SELL	225	100¢	$225	0x85a541…
03-05 11:37:15	will bitcoin dip to 54k march 2 8	No	BUY	225	100¢	$224	0xdb06ec…
03-04 15:48:29	bitcoin above 60k on march 5	Yes	SELL	225	100¢	$224	0x6f0e5a…
03-04 15:44:41	bitcoin above 60k on march 5	Yes	BUY	225	100¢	$224	0x9a17ba…
03-03 13:42:29	bitcoin above 74k on march 3	No	BUY	224	100¢	$224	0x0f566f…
03-01 13:03:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	361	85¢	$307	0x39eb20…
03-01 02:23:11	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	No	SELL	532	100¢	$531	0x59a477…
03-01 01:28:43	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	No	BUY	532	100¢	$530	0xfd7122…
03-01 00:04:55	will bitcoin dip to 52k february 23 march 1	No	SELL	530	100¢	$530	0x24a1ec…
02-27 07:59:13	will bitcoin dip to 52k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	530	100¢	$528	0x7c3efc…
02-26 16:02:22	will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	No	SELL	529	100¢	$528	0x123011…
02-24 05:05:24	will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	No	BUY	529	100¢	$527	0x50ef57…
02-23 14:42:18	will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	No	SELL	527	100¢	$527	0x9de4c3…
02-13 11:32:43	will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	No	BUY	527	100¢	$526	0x08c8f0…
02-12 00:13:49	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xff13af…
02-12 00:09:27	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x940206…
02-12 00:08:27	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x127744…
02-12 00:08:21	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0xf0573e…
02-12 00:05:51	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaceb0d…
02-12 00:05:41	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa559b5…
02-12 00:03:23	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	SELL	339	100¢	$338	0x591062…
02-11 11:39:45	bitcoin above 80k on february 13	No	BUY	526	100¢	$525	0x99785c…
02-09 14:45:19	bitcoin above 82k on february 10	No	BUY	525	100¢	$525	0xca7eec…
02-08 20:15:29	will solana dip to 60 february 2 8	No	SELL	116	100¢	$115	0x133fb9…
02-08 13:28:19	will solana dip to 30 february 2 8	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3b3062…
02-08 13:28:01	will solana dip to 60 february 2 8	No	BUY	116	100¢	$115	0x6a8d0e…
02-08 12:00:27	will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x021757…
02-08 10:11:57	will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	No	SELL	134	100¢	$134	0x0f6bb9…
02-08 03:47:15	will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0xdc80a8…
02-08 03:46:59	will solana dip to 60 february 2 8	No	BUY	374	99¢	$371	0xc273a2…
02-08 03:46:49	will solana dip to 50 february 2 8	No	BUY	64	100¢	$63	0xf51b63…
02-07 04:03:29	will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 7	No	BUY	522	100¢	$521	0x6525d9…
02-05 14:29:23	xrp above 1pt3 on february 5	Yes	BUY	565	96¢	$545	0x7f4d43…
02-02 14:54:34	bitcoin above 94k on february 4	No	BUY	545	100¢	$544	0xd9ab71…
02-02 04:26:06	will bitcoin dip to 74k january 26 1	No	SELL	545	100¢	$544	0x290a5d…
01-31 02:39:14	will bitcoin dip to 74k january 26 1	No	BUY	545	99¢	$541	0x9e8d32…
01-28 18:57:14	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	543	100¢	$541	0x12f8eb…
01-05 14:25:29	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	539	100¢	$538	0x2bcf55…