Rough-Penalty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 07-07 09:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 100% +$0

Other

17% — —

Politics

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 74k on march 14	4	$124	82	42	+40	open	—	03-15 02:11
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	4	$83	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	02-20 09:09
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	3	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	04-15 09:12
bitcoin above 70k on march 28	1	$43	43	0	+43	open	—	03-28 13:46
bitcoin above 64k on march 29	1	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	03-29 14:45
bitcoin above 76k on march 27	1	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	03-27 08:16
bitcoin above 64k on march 22	1	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	03-22 06:19
bitcoin above 68k on april 14	1	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	04-14 02:03
bitcoin above 58k on march 13	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-13 04:54
bitcoin above 64k on march 19	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-19 03:21
will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 15	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-16 02:13
ethereum above 2300 on march 26	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-26 11:38
us strikes iraq by march 7	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-11 11:33
bitcoin above 64k on march 12	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-12 10:33
bitcoin above 76k on march 24	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-24 03:48
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$38	500	500	+0	open	—	02-11 15:11
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	1	$31	31	0	+31	open	—	04-17 03:54
bitcoin above 80k on april 16	1	$31	31	0	+31	open	—	04-16 03:22
bitcoin above 76k on march 21	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	03-21 03:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25?	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	05-25 03:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	2	$28	14	14	+0	open	—	05-21 09:06
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	05-16 16:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	05-18 15:22
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$26	13	13	+0	open	—	03-08 13:04
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	05-31 03:04
bitcoin above 72k on june 17 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	06-17 16:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	05-20 19:22
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	05-14 15:04
elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 140 164	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	04-18 07:44
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 27?	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	05-26 14:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 09:47:16	bitcoin above 58k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x342aab…
07-06 13:08:53	bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x78125c…
07-03 09:09:34	bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x29cb42…
06-21 09:26:32	bitcoin above 58k on june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xce1b8d…
06-17 16:09:40	bitcoin above 72k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x447dee…
06-01 12:12:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x00ef1f…
05-31 03:04:00	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5e4e9b…
05-26 14:28:15	Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x3eef1b…
05-25 03:39:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x497d5c…
05-21 09:06:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4ca0e7…
05-20 19:22:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb9c8cd…
05-18 15:22:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x560f14…
05-16 16:39:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe12cee…
05-14 15:04:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1ab4fd…
05-12 13:34:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xee7e4b…
05-10 20:30:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb86bb2…
05-08 09:04:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xebb503…
04-28 08:46:58	Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfee46d…
04-27 07:45:18	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd34c71…
04-25 04:40:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3cc6ff…
04-22 21:50:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe97475…
04-22 12:32:16	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 115 139	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbc06f5…
04-19 09:25:02	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 165 189	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x87ba10…
04-18 07:44:12	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 140 164	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x7b3726…
04-17 03:54:54	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x523561…
04-16 03:22:44	bitcoin above 80k on april 16	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x949381…
04-15 09:12:14	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xf660a9…
04-15 09:12:12	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2b2c75…
04-15 05:45:46	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x0c3a2b…
04-15 04:13:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdb2dc9…
04-14 02:03:09	bitcoin above 68k on april 14	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xc1668f…
04-13 15:27:03	bitcoin above 74k on april 13	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbb4cd5…
04-13 03:25:59	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	541	0¢	$1	0x668b1a…
04-12 18:40:37	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	541	0¢	$2	0xa65275…
04-12 11:34:55	bitcoin above 68k on april 12	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x12b27e…
04-11 18:58:23	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x2cda3d…
04-10 09:30:11	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9b2257…
04-09 14:25:25	bitcoin above 74k on april 9	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x0ab5c4…
04-06 07:36:37	highest temperature in shanghai on april 7 2026 11c	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9f3f0a…
04-04 08:08:35	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 165 189	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x173efe…
03-31 05:54:41	highest temperature in shanghai on april 1 2026 14corbelow	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa53420…
03-29 14:45:18	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x7f1386…
03-28 13:46:51	bitcoin above 70k on march 28	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x663831…
03-27 08:16:47	bitcoin above 76k on march 27	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x4c0b0d…
03-26 11:38:23	ethereum above 2300 on march 26	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb18e54…
03-25 09:50:15	xrp above 1pt6 on march 25	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7a7ed6…
03-24 03:48:19	bitcoin above 76k on march 24	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x31c97e…
03-22 06:19:19	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x5bbcff…
03-21 03:52:55	bitcoin above 76k on march 21	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd28f75…
03-19 03:21:31	bitcoin above 64k on march 19	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xe3e5e3…
03-16 02:13:45	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 15	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0de422…
03-15 02:11:09	will bitcoin reach 74k on march 14	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc3ec55…
03-14 23:19:05	will bitcoin reach 74k on march 14	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x120d5c…
03-14 23:18:31	will bitcoin reach 74k on march 14	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x2c27d4…
03-14 15:26:07	will bitcoin reach 74k on march 14	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xa3aabe…
03-13 04:54:03	bitcoin above 58k on march 13	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x87158d…
03-12 10:33:09	bitcoin above 64k on march 12	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x80cea3…
03-11 11:33:53	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0c6727…
03-08 13:04:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x025a12…
03-06 13:15:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x67900b…
03-05 05:36:23	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	3,964	0¢	$8	0x067442…
03-05 05:35:49	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	No	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0x3c3fb9…
03-04 13:18:01	will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8e077f…
03-03 07:00:03	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1e9363…
02-28 03:18:27	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x237d6b…
02-20 09:09:20	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	SELL	1,400	1¢	$20	0x64ad06…
02-20 08:26:14	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	1,400	2¢	$21	0x6173c2…
02-20 08:13:22	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	SELL	1,500	1¢	$21	0xce1a0e…
02-20 08:09:34	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	Yes	BUY	1,500	1¢	$21	0x85fb06…
02-19 11:44:12	us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	Yes	BUY	630	2¢	$12	0xe3c17b…
02-18 15:52:32	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x23936d…
02-11 15:11:55	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$19	0xfe10e5…
02-11 15:10:55	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	422	4¢	$16	0xf1d17b…
02-11 15:10:53	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x50d9f6…
02-11 15:10:31	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xd50afd…
02-11 15:10:23	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x00aabc…
02-11 15:10:21	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x9ac4a9…
02-11 15:10:15	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x82eb7f…
02-11 15:10:01	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x202482…
02-11 15:09:39	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x8f83cc…
02-11 15:09:31	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x1e9155…