Frail-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$156

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$27.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$278

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 10-30 10:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 100% +$69

Other

17% 92% +$71

Politics

2% 100% +$10

Sports

1% 100% +$5

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	2	$3.3K	3,322	+3,322	Yes	+$7	04-13 08:58
bitcoin above 66k on april 8	1	$999	1,000	+1,000	Yes	+$1	04-08 09:42
bitcoin above 72k on april 7	1	$998	1,000	+1,000	No	+$2	04-07 12:02
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	2	$991	999	+999	No	+$8	06-30 07:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19?	1	$978	980	+980	Yes	+$2	10-19 10:26
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 16?	1	$975	976	+976	No	+$1	10-16 14:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9?	1	$902	904	+904	Yes	+$2	10-09 12:54
bitcoin above 82k on september 30 2026	1	$883	887	+887	Yes	+$4	09-30 13:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 14?	1	$713	714	+714	Yes	+$1	10-14 08:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 28?	1	$670	670	+670	No	+$1	10-28 08:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15?	1	$564	565	+565	No	+$1	10-15 10:36
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May?	3	$561	568	+568	No	+$8	05-22 13:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8?	1	$500	500	+500	Yes	+$1	10-08 12:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 6?	1	$500	500	+500	Yes	+$0	10-06 06:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$499	500	+500	No	+$1	07-04 06:12
bitcoin above 76k on april 8	1	$498	500	+500	No	+$2	04-08 09:41
ethereum above 2200 on april 7	1	$498	500	+500	No	+$2	04-07 12:07
bitcoin above 68k on april 8	1	$497	500	+500	Yes	+$3	04-08 09:41
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	3	$496	500	+500	No	+$4	05-20 14:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?	1	$490	491	+491	Yes	+$0	10-22 11:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22?	1	$490	491	+491	No	+$1	10-22 11:43
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 21?	1	$490	490	+490	Yes	+$0	10-21 10:07
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 26?	2	$471	473	+473	Yes	+$1	10-26 14:09
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 7 20260626172559968	1	$407	408	+408	No	+$1	07-13 07:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8?	1	$401	401	+401	No	+$1	10-08 12:45
trump renames strait of hormuz to strait of trump by june 30	1	$399	400	+400	No	+$1	06-29 12:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 29?	1	$394	394	+394	Yes	+$0	10-29 08:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 29?	1	$394	394	+394	Yes	+$0	10-29 08:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 17?	1	$378	378	+378	Yes	+$0	10-17 08:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 28?	1	$314	315	+315	Yes	+$0	10-28 08:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:54:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x3999b8…
10-30 09:15:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	291	99¢	$289	0x937f1a…
10-30 09:15:25	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8eda01…
10-30 09:15:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0x78acb8…
10-30 09:15:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	197	100¢	$197	0xc25514…
10-29 08:25:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	394	100¢	$394	0xac9d18…
10-29 08:23:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	394	100¢	$394	0x5e75dc…
10-29 08:23:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	197	100¢	$197	0x6dff1e…
10-28 08:34:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	670	100¢	$670	0xd90112…
10-28 08:33:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	315	100¢	$314	0x0e6108…
10-26 14:09:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	315	100¢	$314	0xa04a62…
10-26 14:09:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	158	100¢	$157	0x0111fc…
10-26 14:09:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x75c743…
10-23 12:02:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	158	100¢	$157	0xccd9e1…
10-23 12:02:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x5de70c…
10-22 11:43:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	491	100¢	$490	0xa82daf…
10-22 11:43:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	491	100¢	$490	0xf7bb6a…
10-21 11:22:23	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 21?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd7fb71…
10-21 10:07:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	490	100¢	$490	0x0e0749…
10-19 10:26:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	980	100¢	$978	0x1cf9ed…
10-17 08:57:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 17?	Yes	BUY	378	100¢	$378	0x364d4b…
10-17 08:57:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x8df191…
10-17 08:56:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x766958…
10-16 14:54:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 16?	No	BUY	976	100¢	$975	0xbff8ec…
10-15 10:36:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15?	No	BUY	565	100¢	$564	0xd20c24…
10-15 10:36:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 15?	Yes	BUY	310	100¢	$309	0x130788…
10-15 10:36:22	ethereum above 2200 on october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x48a6f9…
10-14 08:25:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 14?	Yes	BUY	714	100¢	$713	0x782b48…
10-13 14:03:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x30c835…
10-13 13:59:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	239	100¢	$238	0x4b2805…
10-09 12:54:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9?	Yes	BUY	904	100¢	$902	0xea86cd…
10-08 12:45:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x06cfe6…
10-08 12:45:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8?	No	BUY	401	100¢	$401	0xbf9dd3…
10-06 06:48:54	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	67	99¢	$67	0xc974a5…
10-06 06:43:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x6915b4…
09-30 13:08:41	bitcoin above 82k on september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	887	99¢	$883	0xc7591c…
09-01 18:38:15	Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xa3b6cb…
09-01 17:59:39	Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$22	0xd20d6e…
09-01 17:59:28	Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x658775…
09-01 08:59:52	Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x0536ea…
09-01 07:19:28	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11B by August 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x154aa2…
09-01 07:19:15	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by August 31?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0x8e754f…
09-01 07:19:01	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by August 31?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xacfb9a…
09-01 07:18:48	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$51	0x98e6a5…
09-01 07:14:34	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $120B by August 31?	No	BUY	85	98¢	$84	0xf7c860…
09-01 07:14:06	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by August 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x532645…
08-25 20:19:46	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August?	No	BUY	85	98¢	$84	0x940331…
08-22 17:32:33	Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x547fa4…
08-22 17:32:15	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	115	98¢	$113	0xd9a7bd…
08-22 17:15:54	will stripes valuation hit low 165b by august 31 20260730184041315	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xb2fddf…
08-16 09:54:06	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x2a84d9…
07-28 13:01:38	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	No	BUY	106	92¢	$98	0x35ab05…
07-28 12:51:02	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$12	0x0fd48f…
07-22 08:01:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x529f9a…
07-22 08:01:06	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x744d38…
07-14 05:55:40	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0xfb4f02…
07-14 05:55:40	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	SELL	65	92¢	$60	0x97bc0c…
07-13 10:31:49	will ewy dip to 179 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7913f9…
07-13 07:01:52	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x72ac06…
07-13 07:01:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 7 20260626172559968	No	BUY	408	100¢	$407	0x2caf94…
07-13 07:00:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x767101…
07-13 07:00:23	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	125	89¢	$111	0x21aa9e…
07-08 13:13:23	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0xe7ea42…
07-08 09:08:13	will canvas valuation hit low 36 by july 31 20260629184737590	No	BUY	111	97¢	$108	0xaa7083…
07-07 06:37:46	will stripes valuation hit high 215 by july 31 20260629184728766	No	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0x649348…
07-07 06:37:23	will stripes valuation hit low 150 by july 31 20260629184728774	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x548dda…
07-04 06:12:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xbd5007…
06-30 07:09:32	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	499	99¢	$495	0x6468ec…
06-29 12:22:25	bitcoin above 58k on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xf54777…
06-29 12:21:50	bitcoin above 58k on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0x85f014…
06-29 12:19:49	trump renames strait of hormuz to strait of trump by june 30	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x595581…
06-29 12:19:23	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x783ace…
06-29 12:19:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	216	99¢	$214	0xd13c91…
06-29 12:18:26	ethereum above 1500 on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xac743c…
06-29 12:17:35	bitcoin above 58k on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	171	98¢	$168	0x1abe09…
05-22 13:15:09	Will Chainlink reach $16 in May?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x841b1d…
05-22 13:09:01	Will Chainlink reach $16 in May?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xafbf06…
05-20 14:54:36	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	325	99¢	$323	0xb2fb14…
05-20 13:45:01	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb6b3c0…
05-20 09:02:37	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc555d4…
05-20 09:01:11	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	171	99¢	$169	0x414fcf…
05-20 08:56:35	Will Chainlink reach $16 in May?	No	BUY	405	99¢	$399	0x683018…
05-20 08:53:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x170e43…
04-13 08:58:03	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	2,322	100¢	$2,317	0x72a87e…
04-13 08:56:33	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x0429aa…
04-09 13:45:01	solana above 90 on april 9	No	BUY	93	100¢	$92	0x424b7f…
04-09 11:57:47	solana above 90 on april 9	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd128d1…
04-08 10:29:13	ethereum above 2400 on april 8	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x506e67…
04-08 09:52:19	bitcoin above 74k on april 8	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x15b1f1…
04-08 09:52:03	ethereum above 2400 on april 8	No	BUY	75	99¢	$75	0x227070…
04-08 09:44:57	ethereum above 2400 on april 8	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xeaa480…
04-08 09:42:33	ethereum above 2100 on april 8	Yes	BUY	255	100¢	$254	0x24336e…
04-08 09:42:07	bitcoin above 66k on april 8	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xea7523…
04-08 09:41:57	bitcoin above 68k on april 8	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x97ddb6…
04-08 09:41:35	bitcoin above 74k on april 8	No	BUY	95	97¢	$92	0x9181b7…
04-08 09:41:11	bitcoin above 76k on april 8	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x1b8618…
04-07 12:07:09	ethereum above 2200 on april 7	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xb22964…
04-07 12:02:17	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x7c6eb7…
04-07 12:01:57	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x51f528…