Essential-Shell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$26.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$97

Hit rate

78.3%

Resolved

3,463

Trades

21,291

lifetime

Volume

$322.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$2.95K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 279 days

Categories

Other

98% 55% +$26,252

Politics

2% 44% -$174

Crypto

0% 63% -$88

Sports

0% 38% +$63

Tech

0% 0% -$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 221 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No		+2,582	$2,384	96¢	$2.5K	+$94	10-25 23:02
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No		+500	$470	95¢	$473	+$3	10-27 09:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 6?	20	$5.0K	2,657	2,657	+0	Yes	+$298	08-06 16:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	11	$3.5K	10,020	7,438	+2,582	open	—	10-25 23:02
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 21?	26	$2.2K	1,198	1,198	+0	No	+$105	10-20 21:00
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 16?	20	$2.1K	1,451	1,451	+0	No	+$294	09-15 20:35
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 23?	59	$2.1K	1,302	1,302	+0	No	+$486	10-23 16:05
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 16?	7	$2.0K	1,039	1,039	+0	No	+$35	10-15 14:54
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 12?	16	$2.0K	1,158	1,158	+0	No	+$260	08-11 20:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	5	$1.9K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	10-25 01:49
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 22?	28	$1.9K	1,124	1,095	+30	No	+$59	09-22 07:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-25 09:14
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 7?	9	$1.7K	904	904	+0	No	+$71	09-07 08:26
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 17?	9	$1.6K	837	806	+31	No	+$36	08-17 07:36
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 24?	13	$1.6K	838	838	+0	No	+$44	08-24 07:49
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?	7	$1.5K	1,092	1,092	+0	No	+$75	08-19 16:36
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 17?	19	$1.5K	945	945	+0	No	+$119	08-16 19:06
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 11?	5	$1.5K	784	784	+0	No	+$25	09-11 05:36
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26?	3	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$31	06-25 15:58
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20?	10	$1.5K	935	935	+0	No	+$150	08-20 03:08
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on October 22?	3	$1.4K	889	889	+0	No	+$359	10-21 16:01
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 9?	38	$1.3K	778	774	+5	Yes	+$141	08-09 09:37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?	20	$1.3K	711	711	+0	Yes	+$73	08-10 18:24
highest temperature in chengdu on april 9 2026 30c	37	$1.2K	832	896	-64	No	-$50	04-09 07:49
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 31?	79	$1.2K	1,135	1,115	+20	No	+$180	07-31 10:53
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 7?	17	$1.1K	756	539	+217	Yes	+$91	09-07 11:17
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 9?	5	$1.1K	571	571	+0	No	+$57	07-08 19:04
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 25?	21	$1.1K	626	626	+0	Yes	+$54	08-25 09:54
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 21?	9	$1.0K	609	609	+0	No	+$7	08-21 01:07
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 21?	14	$1.0K	530	530	+0	No	+$21	10-20 16:04
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 10?	7	$1.0K	555	555	+0	No	+$85	07-09 18:23
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 30?	53	$1.0K	893	566	+327	No	+$106	08-30 09:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:28:05	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x3642c7…
10-27 07:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x7f48db…
10-27 07:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	62	90¢	$56	0x9b788a…
10-27 07:02:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0x8920d8…
10-27 06:58:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x0e0861…
10-27 06:58:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0x0a4dac…
10-27 06:56:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	56	66¢	$37	0x153229…
10-27 06:54:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	84	64¢	$54	0xfb0ca4…
10-27 06:54:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	43	62¢	$27	0x147b7a…
10-27 06:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0xdc99aa…
10-27 06:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xb481ea…
10-27 06:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x37e489…
10-27 06:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0x11e1cb…
10-27 06:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x040309…
10-27 06:47:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xa734e6…
10-27 06:43:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xc7fbb8…
10-27 06:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xf938bb…
10-27 05:48:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	17	91¢	$15	0x8e208e…
10-27 05:39:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x7cbe03…
10-27 05:37:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xcda382…
10-27 05:36:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8ec54c…
10-27 05:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x70174a…
10-27 05:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0xe267ea…
10-27 05:31:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x664d0e…
10-27 05:26:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	120	7¢	$8	0x849c8f…
10-27 05:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x7499a8…
10-27 05:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x6615fc…
10-27 05:06:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	58	10¢	$6	0x8a32d7…
10-27 05:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x1d8308…
10-27 05:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	19	50¢	$9	0x132638…
10-27 04:57:26	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	370	95¢	$351	0x6a984c…
10-27 04:56:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xfb6c37…
10-27 04:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xfd0c17…
10-27 04:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xc0f4af…
10-27 04:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	56	80¢	$45	0x543da3…
10-27 04:51:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	88	88¢	$78	0xf2a63d…
10-27 04:20:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	61	44¢	$27	0x9633df…
10-27 04:19:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	390	2¢	$9	0x26a04c…
10-27 04:04:23	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0xefa0b5…
10-27 03:59:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	209	0¢	$0	0x22c4b0…
10-27 03:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	216	75¢	$162	0xc3ee70…
10-27 03:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	28	74¢	$20	0x5f1bfe…
10-27 03:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0x72b5ba…
10-27 03:43:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xdbfb91…
10-27 03:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xcbaa00…
10-27 03:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xd0c8c8…
10-27 03:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	128	40¢	$52	0x4b96b8…
10-27 03:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x480a90…
10-27 03:40:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x2006e6…
10-27 03:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	75	48¢	$36	0x907361…
10-27 03:29:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xdbe8f7…
10-27 03:29:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	220	44¢	$98	0x5db7fd…
10-27 03:29:50	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x09ed96…
10-27 03:27:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xce3e7f…
10-27 03:27:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x53a910…
10-27 03:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	178	39¢	$70	0x6f4e10…
10-27 03:07:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x9765e1…
10-27 03:07:47	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x3ca917…
10-27 03:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0xadb1d9…
10-27 03:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x804de2…
10-27 03:01:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	105	26¢	$28	0x886e71…
10-27 02:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	156	72¢	$112	0xd714fe…
10-27 02:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	265	29¢	$76	0x6e77f7…
10-27 02:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	82	5¢	$4	0xc3c90b…
10-27 02:42:33	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x610432…
10-27 02:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x46bd74…
10-27 02:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xff8bfe…
10-27 02:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x6a5d47…
10-27 02:33:39	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xfa2756…
10-27 02:33:39	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdfa0ca…
10-27 02:30:50	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0x0603d3…
10-27 02:29:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xfb5aeb…
10-27 02:29:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	96	21¢	$20	0xe16cad…
10-27 02:28:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xed6010…
10-27 02:28:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	205	0¢	$0	0xd29964…
10-27 01:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	300	28¢	$85	0x37a423…
10-27 01:51:35	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	84	8¢	$6	0xe79e73…
10-27 01:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x09183c…
10-27 01:09:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xc699e5…
10-27 01:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x12cc54…
10-27 01:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xe6f822…
10-27 00:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$99	0x377044…
10-26 19:02:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x11f13c…
10-26 15:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 27?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x49800d…
10-26 15:24:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 27?	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0xab1f75…
10-26 15:20:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x6543d5…
10-26 15:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xd97836…
10-26 15:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	36	35¢	$12	0x97d7d6…
10-26 15:06:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 27?	No	BUY	146	91¢	$133	0xe0aa3e…
10-26 14:51:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$13	0xe7104d…
10-26 13:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0xf4003d…
10-26 13:48:08	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	114	46¢	$53	0xc101f3…
10-26 13:31:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x332e89…
10-26 13:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xa37b5b…
10-26 10:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	87	49¢	$43	0x5e30e2…
10-26 10:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x347f58…
10-26 10:47:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	51	15¢	$8	0x3f2f5d…
10-26 08:47:23	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$25	0x100501…
10-26 07:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 26?	No	SELL	53	85¢	$45	0x3f5cc7…
10-26 07:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 26?	No	SELL	133	85¢	$113	0x102b07…