Realistic-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.6%

Resolved

Trades

499

lifetime

Volume

$2.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 05-20 14:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 67% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 157 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	10	$49	42	41	+2	open	—	04-25 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	4	$33	27	26	+1	open	—	04-27 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	6	$32	23	22	+1	open	—	05-04 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$30	21	20	+1	open	—	04-27 13:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	6	$29	21	20	+1	open	—	04-25 17:45
btc updown 5m 1775322000	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	04-04 17:05
btc updown 5m 1775373300	2	$26	13	13	+0	open	—	04-05 07:21
btc updown 5m 1775321100	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	04-04 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	3	$25	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	05-07 19:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	04-27 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	04-26 22:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	4	$22	16	16	+0	open	—	04-25 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	4	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	04-25 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-27 13:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-27 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-26 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-27 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	04-27 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	2	$21	12	11	+0	open	—	04-26 22:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	4	$21	13	12	+0	open	—	04-25 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	4	$21	14	13	+0	open	—	04-25 18:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 08:40
btc updown 15m 1775315700	2	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	04-04 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-26 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	2	$21	17	16	+1	open	—	04-25 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 16:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	4	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 19:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 14:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x504f1a…
05-20 14:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xfc4dc9…
05-20 14:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x67affa…
05-20 13:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4e6933…
05-20 04:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xef49b4…
05-20 03:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x44380e…
05-20 02:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3a58e2…
05-20 01:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x9abd29…
05-20 00:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x47ce17…
05-11 01:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x2afcd7…
05-10 13:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x71013c…
05-10 13:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xc29d26…
05-10 12:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x320f49…
05-08 15:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x61023a…
05-08 15:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6e9af8…
05-08 12:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xb59976…
05-08 12:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xb1c738…
05-08 12:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9277b0…
05-08 09:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xd5e185…
05-07 20:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xe5618e…
05-07 20:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x053f82…
05-07 19:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0xe01422…
05-07 19:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xa48172…
05-07 19:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xbb25ae…
05-07 19:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x97745c…
05-07 19:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x7702ce…
05-07 19:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf91ced…
05-06 19:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x99bed7…
05-06 18:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x4fb0e4…
05-06 18:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x9f0eb8…
05-06 18:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xddad91…
05-06 18:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0x816c84…
05-06 18:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x17185d…
05-06 17:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xe3402e…
05-06 17:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xf8c3cb…
05-06 17:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0x06f010…
05-06 17:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbc91e7…
05-06 17:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x71bcc5…
05-06 17:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa62f7d…
05-04 19:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0xae135d…
05-04 19:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	11	70¢	$7	0xe98876…
05-04 19:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7d7adb…
05-04 19:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xdc5d52…
05-04 19:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xbe458b…
05-04 19:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x01f279…
05-04 19:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9ee7eb…
05-04 19:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x77a694…
05-04 19:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	8	69¢	$5	0x908a14…
05-04 19:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xcf6f94…
05-04 19:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x1bf951…
05-04 19:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xdee2ed…
05-04 18:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0xb88374…
05-04 18:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x98e7ac…
05-02 19:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x5e73c1…
05-02 19:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xecff54…
05-02 18:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xc4093c…
05-02 18:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x74a93a…
04-28 10:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x46b68c…
04-28 10:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1334f0…
04-28 10:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x8bba96…
04-28 09:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcf8b80…
04-28 09:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x915fcb…
04-28 09:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x786a52…
04-28 09:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xbb046e…
04-28 09:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5b6c6d…
04-28 09:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x363a53…
04-28 09:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x18f5ed…
04-28 09:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xecb858…
04-28 08:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0xad8ca3…
04-28 08:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x31ca7f…
04-27 20:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	12	77¢	$10	0x41a3b0…
04-27 20:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x1c12b6…
04-27 20:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0xf6020d…
04-27 20:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x961ab6…
04-27 20:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x33a812…
04-27 20:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x76ad4d…
04-27 19:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0xbe282f…
04-27 19:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xfe741b…
04-27 18:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6ea9f9…
04-27 18:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x5d893d…
04-27 18:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0xe96c41…
04-27 18:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x691350…
04-27 17:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x504bd4…
04-27 17:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x73f67d…
04-27 17:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x9aa87f…
04-27 17:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xf1ad64…
04-27 16:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4b2141…
04-27 16:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xeff6ae…
04-27 16:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xee1a22…
04-27 16:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x82aa0c…
04-27 16:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xeac30f…
04-27 16:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xe9b0c7…
04-27 15:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x13d427…
04-27 15:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xe25480…
04-27 14:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x058c1a…
04-27 13:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x37c206…
04-27 13:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xeb3145…
04-27 13:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xae7e1c…
04-27 13:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xd4fecf…
04-27 13:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x311854…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	249	$178.2K	11,627	05-20 14:12
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	249	$64.3K	21,588	05-20 14:14
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	249	$51.3K	10,405	05-20 14:14
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	247	$463.1K	17,931	05-20 14:14
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	247	$60.1K	13,195	05-20 14:14
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	247	$19.6K	3,828	05-20 14:14
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	246	$69.6K	22,483	05-20 13:54
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	235	$231.5K	6,559	05-20 14:15