Firm-Sphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

Trades

691

lifetime

Volume

$1.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 05-14 06:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 57% $-3

Other

19% — —

Politics

6% — —

Pop-Culture

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	2	$170	140	140	+0	open	—	03-19 23:54
will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 22000 by march 20 654	2	$121	71	71	+0	open	—	03-20 19:35
will frankenstein win exactly 3 awards at the oscars	1	$114	505	0	+505	open	—	03-15 20:35
xrp updown 5m 1775864400	5	$80	93	7	+85	open	—	04-10 23:45
cs2 furia aur1 2026 03 20 game1	1	$65	77	0	+77	open	—	03-20 21:58
xrp updown 5m 1775865000	4	$61	65	6	+59	open	—	04-10 23:54
xrp updown 5m 1775865300	1	$58	78	0	+78	open	—	04-10 23:57
xrp updown 5m 1775864700	3	$56	63	8	+55	open	—	04-10 23:49
xrp updown 5m 1775859600	3	$53	70	4	+66	open	—	04-10 22:23
xrp updown 5m 1775861100	3	$24	31	0	+31	open	—	04-10 22:48
sol updown 15m 1775559600	11	$23	38	37	+1	open	—	04-07 11:14
xrp updown 15m 1774658700	6	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	03-28 01:00
xrp updown 15m 1775862000	4	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	04-10 23:12
xrp updown 15m 1775861100	6	$19	23	8	+15	open	—	04-10 22:58
xrp updown 15m 1775601900	3	$16	16	5	+12	open	—	04-07 22:59
xrp updown 15m 1775600100	7	$16	15	14	+1	open	—	04-07 22:27
xrp updown 15m 1775566800	8	$15	13	12	+0	open	—	04-07 13:07
xrp updown 5m 1775860500	5	$14	18	4	+14	open	—	04-10 22:39
sol updown 15m 1775560500	5	$14	126	61	+65	open	—	04-07 11:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	6	$14	14	7	+7	Down	$-2	05-13 22:03
xrp updown 5m 1775600700	6	$13	13	6	+7	open	—	04-07 22:29
xrp updown 15m 1775598300	5	$13	11	8	+3	open	—	04-07 21:58
eth updown 5m 1774659900	3	$13	30	8	+22	open	—	03-28 01:08
xrp updown 5m 1775862900	4	$13	11	10	+0	open	—	04-10 23:19
xrp updown 15m 1775859300	6	$13	14	8	+6	open	—	04-10 22:26
sol updown 15m 1775558700	7	$13	19	18	+1	open	—	04-07 10:55
xrp updown 15m 1775860200	7	$12	30	29	+2	open	—	04-10 22:43
xrp updown 5m 1775599500	3	$10	14	13	+1	open	—	04-07 22:09
sol updown 15m 1776028500	10	$10	68	0	+68	open	—	04-12 21:23
doge updown 5m 1774661100	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-28 01:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 06:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8b2d1f…
05-14 06:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x966cda…
05-14 06:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xbc7bb9…
05-14 06:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xec3b10…
05-14 06:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb24c38…
05-14 06:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x868703…
05-14 06:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x2e95c3…
05-14 06:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2301a7…
05-14 06:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x01eefe…
05-14 06:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaec5b6…
05-14 06:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xcd7d28…
05-14 06:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xd72be9…
05-14 06:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x74eabe…
05-14 06:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xdc888c…
05-14 06:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x5301c1…
05-14 06:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x45780f…
05-14 06:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3b7b5a…
05-14 06:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb8ea33…
05-14 06:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf64523…
05-14 06:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0xef2a47…
05-14 06:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x38fc44…
05-14 00:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x9db7cb…
05-14 00:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x7e48cc…
05-14 00:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x6e4075…
05-14 00:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x3e3775…
05-14 00:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x901643…
05-14 00:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf4fe16…
05-14 00:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xdc9603…
05-14 00:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x08dee3…
05-14 00:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x755544…
05-14 00:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x84c9ae…
05-14 00:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0cf694…
05-14 00:14:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x55292b…
05-14 00:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x1ce2b4…
05-14 00:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe1166e…
05-14 00:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xeb2597…
05-14 00:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7e18e9…
05-14 00:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x29c95a…
05-14 00:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4c6454…
05-14 00:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x295402…
05-14 00:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd263b4…
05-13 23:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xace3db…
05-13 23:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0xfeee72…
05-13 23:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe6b645…
05-13 23:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x51aaaa…
05-13 23:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x7d191f…
05-13 23:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xc1a470…
05-13 23:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xc1b8a6…
05-13 23:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2772f5…
05-13 23:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xba2f49…
05-13 23:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x18cf53…
05-13 23:37:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9b40bc…
05-13 23:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x36741a…
05-13 23:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbd7aae…
05-13 23:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9b983d…
05-13 23:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0x470f7c…
05-13 23:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x951dd1…
05-13 23:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3aebfb…
05-13 22:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x715f0c…
05-13 22:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x530b1a…
05-13 22:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0b05de…
05-13 22:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xa80f5a…
05-13 22:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xacbd72…
05-13 22:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xf146b7…
05-13 22:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xad7e1b…
05-13 22:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xed290b…
05-13 22:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x279b96…
05-13 22:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa06edd…
05-13 22:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xd332fe…
05-13 22:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe08694…
05-13 22:31:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xb1c6c8…
05-13 22:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x5e4470…
05-13 22:28:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x377c84…
05-13 22:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3c4593…
05-13 22:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x11644c…
05-13 22:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x419542…
05-13 22:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xea77e8…
05-13 22:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4019f6…
05-13 22:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0x2416cc…
05-13 22:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb35f9a…
05-13 22:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x476882…
05-13 22:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4e0505…
05-13 22:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xf790d5…
05-13 22:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xedabd8…
05-13 22:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x2c6a6e…
05-13 22:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa93e0a…
05-13 22:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbc5171…
05-13 22:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xce6895…
05-13 22:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x3b5e77…
05-13 22:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x9503b3…
05-13 22:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xc7f669…
05-13 22:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xee3c43…
05-13 22:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	78¢	$3	0x29c799…
05-13 22:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xb8e07f…
04-12 21:36:19	xrp updown 5m 1776029700	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3032a6…
04-12 21:23:29	sol updown 15m 1776028500	Down	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0xf18233…
04-12 21:23:27	sol updown 15m 1776028500	Down	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x610011…
04-12 21:22:37	sol updown 15m 1776028500	Down	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x7c54ab…
04-12 21:22:35	sol updown 15m 1776028500	Down	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x4a43db…
04-12 21:22:27	xrp updown 15m 1776028500	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xd2d8b8…