Scared-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$84

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.4%

Resolved

Trades

11,965

lifetime

Volume

$23.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 05-05 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 31% +$84

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 968 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1775998800	104	$226	732	0	+732	open	—	04-12 13:09
btc updown 15m 1776528900	44	$198	225	0	+225	open	—	04-18 16:28
btc updown 15m 1776536100	44	$197	225	0	+225	open	—	04-18 18:25
btc updown 15m 1776621600	31	$144	200	0	+200	open	—	04-19 18:14
btc updown 15m 1776541500	38	$127	328	0	+328	open	—	04-18 19:59
btc updown 15m 1776546000	31	$112	156	0	+156	open	—	04-18 21:12
btc updown 15m 1776539700	27	$110	138	0	+138	open	—	04-18 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$100	189	0	+189	Up	+$89	05-05 08:06
eth updown 15m 1776546000	29	$100	146	0	+146	open	—	04-18 21:09
btc updown 15m 1776532500	29	$95	151	0	+151	open	—	04-18 17:24
btc updown 15m 1776334500	21	$87	201	0	+201	open	—	04-16 10:22
btc updown 15m 1776535200	22	$84	122	0	+122	open	—	04-18 18:10
btc updown 15m 1776578400	24	$83	125	0	+125	open	—	04-19 06:08
eth updown 15m 1776534300	21	$78	107	0	+107	open	—	04-18 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	3	$68	551	51	+500	Down	+$8	05-05 09:14
eth updown 15m 1776348000	11	$65	131	0	+131	open	—	04-16 14:12
btc updown 5m 1774941900	2	$62	36	35	+1	open	—	03-31 07:31
btc updown 5m 1775283300	2	$59	45	43	+2	open	—	04-04 06:22
btc updown 15m 1776338100	7	$56	135	0	+135	open	—	04-16 11:25
eth updown 15m 1776339000	12	$52	146	0	+146	open	—	04-16 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	2	$50	230	0	+230	Up	$-50	05-05 09:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$50	158	0	+158	Down	+$108	05-05 09:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	1	$48	404	0	+404	open	—	04-27 15:28
btc updown 15m 1776335400	13	$48	158	0	+158	open	—	04-16 10:42
btc updown 5m 1776355500	1	$45	98	0	+98	open	—	04-16 16:06
btc updown 15m 1776527100	16	$45	87	0	+87	open	—	04-18 15:56
sol updown 5m 1774814100	18	$42	102	0	+102	open	—	03-29 19:58
btc updown 15m 1776350700	18	$41	129	0	+129	open	—	04-16 14:59
btc updown 15m 1776341700	11	$39	141	0	+141	open	—	04-16 12:28
btc updown 15m 1777049100	12	$39	89	0	+89	open	—	04-24 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 15:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x7990fa…
05-05 15:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x17caeb…
05-05 15:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xe6a97b…
05-05 15:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x1668fc…
05-05 15:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x8aee7c…
05-05 15:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xd46a86…
05-05 10:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xefd172…
05-05 10:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x14c53e…
05-05 10:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x3f0c3e…
05-05 10:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x1bfc41…
05-05 10:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x3949ef…
05-05 10:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x483e0e…
05-05 10:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xfd01af…
05-05 10:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x8eb215…
05-05 09:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x04f94f…
05-05 09:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xd1809c…
05-05 09:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x5928a3…
05-05 09:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xef4bb4…
05-05 09:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x144913…
05-05 09:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	98	25¢	$25	0x953d00…
05-05 09:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xad739b…
05-05 09:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x734542…
05-05 09:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x115db5…
05-05 09:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xafd697…
05-05 09:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0xbc184a…
05-05 09:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd6a1bc…
05-05 09:14:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6a9255…
05-05 09:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	51	74¢	$38	0xaedefa…
05-05 09:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x68d9f8…
05-05 09:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xa18e20…
05-05 08:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xad85b1…
05-05 08:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xfff2ba…
05-05 08:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x18a8b0…
05-05 08:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x13bbba…
05-05 08:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x66e44e…
05-05 04:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$3	0x36ff72…
05-05 04:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x9087be…
05-05 04:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x3d59f4…
05-05 03:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x0d9899…
05-05 03:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xa18481…
05-05 03:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x9136bb…
05-05 02:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xd71c62…
05-05 01:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xc982c4…
05-05 01:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x14e4e6…
05-05 01:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x89bb33…
05-05 01:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x84c051…
05-05 01:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x6537ee…
05-05 01:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x298e2a…
05-05 01:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xccbf81…
05-05 01:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xeb9279…
05-05 00:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x7e755d…
05-05 00:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xe8daa3…
05-04 23:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xbb96fe…
05-04 23:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xdf7071…
05-04 22:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x8fdf63…
05-04 22:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x8e241a…
05-04 21:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x98fb54…
05-04 21:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x3cab2b…
05-04 19:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xd21ffd…
05-04 17:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xe547cb…
05-04 16:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x4aa23e…
05-04 16:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x12e075…
05-04 16:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xea28de…
05-04 16:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x30bc35…
05-04 16:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x92d2bc…
05-04 15:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0x4b7f35…
05-04 15:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x17da4e…
05-04 15:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x2c6fda…
05-04 15:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xbe1cbb…
05-04 14:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x0ce3b2…
05-04 14:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x3ad09d…
05-04 14:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	38	24¢	$9	0x258662…
05-04 14:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x77ce4a…
05-04 14:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x178fc1…
05-04 14:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa67a1c…
05-04 14:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x7f95e9…
05-04 09:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x522cde…
05-04 09:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe9b283…
05-04 07:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xa3a72f…
05-04 07:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x0acba8…
05-04 07:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x70bf83…
05-04 07:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x4b0859…
05-04 07:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xaee15a…
05-04 07:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xa6f411…
05-04 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xed4f07…
05-04 07:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xde7a4b…
05-04 05:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe21c1a…
05-04 05:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xd52a96…
05-04 05:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x5029f9…
05-04 04:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	553	1¢	$8	0x35b74d…
05-04 04:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xd6f39d…
05-04 04:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xcd4ea9…
05-04 04:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x6c1eae…
05-04 03:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	370	1¢	$4	0x43b643…
05-04 03:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xeb130e…
05-03 23:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x9e47dd…
05-03 23:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x43351e…
05-03 23:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x7bb3b6…
05-03 23:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x6c2676…
05-03 23:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x02aa91…