Admirable-Godfather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

97.3%

Resolved

108

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$1.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-31 12:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

56% 99% +$2

Politics

27% 88% -$26

Crypto

15% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+2	$1	66¢	$1	$0	10-27 12:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	08-17 13:51
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$69	38	38	+0	No	+$1	10-18 23:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$65	34	34	+0	No	+$0	08-25 15:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	10-05 08:15
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$1	09-10 19:01
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	1	$41	41	0	+41	Yes	+$0	09-04 07:57
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$40	41	0	+41	No	+$0	07-01 01:04
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	08-05 01:30
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	2	$37	32	32	+0	open	—	10-17 13:33
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	2	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-28 01:06
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$34	34	0	+34	Yes	+$0	08-20 20:45
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-22 00:14
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	09-23 07:17
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$27	38	0	+38	Yes	-$27	10-19 16:24
will xrp dip to 1 in march 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-31 00:12
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	10-29 13:18
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	07-30 15:13
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$1	10-13 05:57
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-13 03:40
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-22 13:43
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	10-05 12:10
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	10-31 12:56
meta above 780 on february 27 2026	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	02-26 15:43
gc hit 3000 low jan 2026 687 416 415 372	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-14 14:44
googl above 280 on january 30 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	01-24 15:56
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-08 08:32
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-09 08:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-29 03:48
Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-22 19:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 12:56:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xaf5c40…
10-29 13:18:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd2ef26…
10-29 00:32:23	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd0eab8…
10-27 12:41:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0xa8abfa…
10-19 16:24:12	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x7797c2…
10-19 16:16:35	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x7ba3ae…
10-18 23:22:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	38	92¢	$35	0x773339…
10-17 15:46:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	38	90¢	$34	0xc53a6b…
10-17 14:45:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x7fafa1…
10-17 13:33:24	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	58¢	$19	0x4901ea…
10-13 05:57:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x6c9449…
10-12 19:21:24	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	58¢	$19	0xe62543…
10-08 17:14:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x4d93e6…
10-05 12:10:56	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5c2020…
10-05 08:15:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xbb5e2e…
10-03 03:59:09	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x58f5ff…
09-24 17:11:35	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x033c7e…
09-23 07:17:26	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x371117…
09-22 20:48:24	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xfcab2a…
09-22 19:33:22	Will Solana dip to $60 in September?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb2a979…
09-22 15:39:24	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9363c0…
09-22 13:43:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc7e8d5…
09-11 22:04:12	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb8b7c1…
09-10 19:01:00	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x23b2b3…
09-07 13:03:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x498113…
09-06 02:43:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xb27cfa…
09-04 07:57:27	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xcaf237…
08-28 01:06:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xefe220…
08-25 15:37:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x414448…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x94a91d…
08-22 00:14:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3b1f58…
08-21 10:48:46	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	0¢	$0	0x50df3a…
08-21 10:04:31	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x2f9758…
08-21 09:26:40	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2e0096…
08-21 09:26:18	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x28cdf4…
08-21 09:25:54	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x69631d…
08-21 09:25:36	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x74d393…
08-21 09:25:34	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x5dfff7…
08-20 20:45:43	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xaf1e21…
08-19 08:45:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x206a7f…
08-19 08:02:25	Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f9631…
08-19 01:32:49	will spy dip to 700 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe81c16…
08-17 20:05:42	will spy dip to 670 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7e1a42…
08-17 13:51:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x62bf16…
08-10 11:38:01	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xa64b1f…
08-05 01:30:20	Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0x3b780d…
08-03 17:00:32	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe95329…
07-30 15:13:18	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xc7fcbe…
07-30 15:03:38	will msft dip to 345 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1764c9…
07-30 00:40:03	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb2e795…
07-29 16:32:30	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x59fb85…
07-29 13:44:48	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xec19a4…
07-29 11:47:47	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1749dd…
07-28 09:44:52	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6b9a7…
07-27 23:09:24	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe3f3d4…
07-27 02:55:31	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8bffad…
07-25 22:46:13	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9e531b…
07-23 21:03:49	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a54f1…
07-23 18:45:00	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8e710a…
07-22 19:56:36	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a5426…
07-22 15:21:52	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xf219bf…
07-21 17:35:34	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7a08b4…
07-01 01:04:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0xa0847e…
05-26 02:47:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x865237…
05-24 20:11:29	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x038abd…
05-24 15:17:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xdb4223…
05-23 11:50:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf5b27f…
05-13 03:40:37	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xc2f3d2…
05-11 22:20:26	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf027f0…
05-09 08:47:23	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x08d92c…
05-08 21:15:03	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9cb69…
05-08 20:21:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd782d0…
05-08 08:32:51	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xddb2a2…
05-07 18:54:26	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x27b431…
05-07 13:35:49	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2befb5…
05-07 09:24:28	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5b475b…
05-07 07:22:43	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd907e6…
05-05 13:14:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2a6abb…
04-29 03:48:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2e7a5d…
04-22 05:36:20	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf6650f…
04-21 09:33:08	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc9e3cd…
04-20 17:01:32	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x49ba34…
04-19 17:57:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x13a2f0…
04-19 03:58:02	Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0eb8f6…
04-18 21:39:16	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5cebd9…
04-18 09:44:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x649203…
04-17 14:46:04	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf47046…
04-17 04:06:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x1d7cc3…
04-16 11:56:56	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x683781…
04-15 23:07:04	Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x1f9a85…
04-14 12:52:59	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7ce02a…
04-13 16:59:37	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xc494ce…
03-31 00:12:37	will xrp dip to 1 in march 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x621624…
03-28 01:46:33	will xrp reach 2pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xad3422…
03-25 04:13:39	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7504d5…
03-24 16:01:11	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x59d3ef…
03-23 19:46:37	aapl above 210 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x988d9a…
03-19 02:41:09	msft above 315 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x779ae9…
03-17 00:46:01	will baidu have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6f64b6…
03-15 08:33:41	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc5807f…