First-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

469

Trades

3,102

lifetime

Volume

$5.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 05-13 18:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 59% $-47

Sports

2% 0% $-0

Politics

1% 0% $-0

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 497 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down april 18 2026 11am et	15	$57	60	58	+2	open	—	04-18 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	35	$52	204	66	+138	open	—	05-03 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	12	$45	107	0	+107	Up	$-45	05-06 08:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	12	$38	70	28	+42	Down	+$3	05-07 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	10	$35	42	28	+14	Down	$-5	05-07 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	47	$31	345	157	+188	open	—	05-03 16:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	12	$31	60	60	+0	Down	$-1	05-13 05:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	6	$28	40	20	+20	Up	$-4	05-08 01:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	5	$28	21	21	+0	Up	+$2	05-07 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	6	$28	40	20	+20	Up	$-3	05-07 23:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	2	$28	55	55	+0	Up	+$4	05-06 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	6	$27	40	20	+20	Down	$-3	05-08 01:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	8	$27	59	0	+59	Down	+$1	05-07 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	7	$27	42	21	+21	Up	+$10	05-07 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	29	$27	378	121	+257	open	—	05-03 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	35	$26	354	159	+195	open	—	05-03 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	5	$26	30	20	+10	Up	$-1	05-06 08:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	34	$26	299	200	+99	open	—	05-03 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	20	$25	81	59	+22	open	—	05-03 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	6	$21	35	7	+28	Up	+$4	05-07 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	6	$20	42	0	+42	Up	+$1	05-07 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	6	$20	42	0	+42	Up	+$1	05-07 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	7	$20	35	14	+21	Down	$-7	05-07 18:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	6	$20	42	0	+42	Up	+$1	05-07 20:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	8	$20	25	15	+10	Up	+$1	05-07 01:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	8	$19	25	15	+10	Up	+$1	05-06 23:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	8	$19	25	15	+10	Up	+$3	05-06 22:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	8	$19	25	15	+10	Down	$-1	05-07 02:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	8	$19	25	15	+10	Up	+$3	05-07 02:28
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	18	$19	43	43	+0	open	—	04-18 10:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 18:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xdd69b8…
05-13 18:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2c1333…
05-13 18:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x6c67d6…
05-13 14:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xd2f62a…
05-13 14:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xa687d9…
05-13 14:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x31f8bd…
05-13 14:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x940624…
05-13 14:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb3df40…
05-13 14:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x6c1f5a…
05-13 14:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xeae762…
05-13 14:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd3d4e7…
05-13 14:22:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2c62fe…
05-13 14:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf2c07f…
05-13 14:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x32eaaf…
05-13 05:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x1f679a…
05-13 05:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x4c4ce1…
05-13 05:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x08bd05…
05-13 05:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0xf4a6e1…
05-13 05:24:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x44d7dc…
05-13 05:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xc5a8a6…
05-13 05:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x2dad09…
05-13 05:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x925b53…
05-13 05:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x891197…
05-13 05:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x7aaf48…
05-13 05:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	18¢	$2	0xda6782…
05-13 05:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x220969…
05-13 05:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x23e475…
05-13 05:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x001bf9…
05-13 05:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1ad216…
05-12 20:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0xb7cb23…
05-12 20:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x02c905…
05-12 19:58:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xfe2aa3…
05-12 19:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0b67d6…
05-12 19:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x8e8abb…
05-12 19:23:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x30a64f…
05-12 19:22:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x39992e…
05-12 19:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x156cee…
05-12 19:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x253cd1…
05-12 19:07:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0xe3d6f1…
05-12 15:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x4eb31f…
05-12 15:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x1598b4…
05-12 15:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x8cc06d…
05-12 15:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x565d6d…
05-12 15:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd0004a…
05-12 14:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x00858e…
05-12 14:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xb0d635…
05-12 14:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x026b2d…
05-12 14:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x97b95c…
05-12 14:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xce67d8…
05-12 14:01:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3781c3…
05-12 13:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x3ef43c…
05-12 13:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	21¢	$2	0x750d96…
05-12 13:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$7	0xd62ca0…
05-12 13:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0xaa498d…
05-12 12:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x71839e…
05-12 12:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x686fa9…
05-12 12:31:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x6556b9…
05-12 12:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0xe8f865…
05-12 12:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc3e54b…
05-12 12:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x08eb49…
05-12 12:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x01d33e…
05-12 11:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x529e13…
05-12 11:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x3ac69a…
05-12 11:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xf9d5ed…
05-12 11:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xdc6add…
05-12 11:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x4e9a69…
05-12 11:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x6dbf73…
05-12 11:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x50a991…
05-12 11:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xe79f13…
05-12 10:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd202bf…
05-12 10:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa21716…
05-11 20:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x9423ec…
05-11 20:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x6916a3…
05-11 20:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x8f26ee…
05-11 20:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xf8bdba…
05-11 20:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xbf448c…
05-11 20:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x4846a1…
05-11 20:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x87852f…
05-11 20:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x275077…
05-11 20:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x7483c3…
05-11 19:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xfbcc1e…
05-11 19:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xd758e0…
05-11 19:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x6d0150…
05-11 19:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xaeedcf…
05-11 19:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xa4a4b1…
05-11 19:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x8e4e5c…
05-11 19:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x9f1b1b…
05-11 19:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x740486…
05-11 19:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x49a069…
05-11 19:05:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xc25b60…
05-11 19:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xa96da5…
05-11 19:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0xe0900b…
05-11 19:02:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x63b37d…
05-11 19:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x752ddf…
05-11 19:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb982ef…
05-11 18:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x533255…
05-11 18:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xa698ed…
05-11 18:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x6fba45…
05-11 18:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x142e5e…
05-11 18:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0xde6feb…