Substantial-Nonsense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

586

lifetime

Volume

$2.05K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 04-28 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% $-25

Politics

46% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$904	370,000	0	+370,000	open	—	04-08 18:41
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 300 319	5	$137	109	108	+2	open	—	04-14 14:02
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	6	$35	36	36	+1	open	—	04-15 11:07
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	3	$30	26	25	+1	open	—	04-11 09:29
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	6	$29	82	79	+3	open	—	04-19 06:16
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	5	$24	76	73	+3	open	—	04-19 06:15
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 280 299	10	$23	66	63	+3	open	—	04-15 11:23
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 380 399	7	$23	47	33	+14	open	—	03-24 14:05
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	4	$23	54	52	+2	open	—	04-08 18:35
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	7	$20	31	16	+15	open	—	04-17 11:30
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 260 279	5	$19	65	62	+3	open	—	04-15 09:01
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 18:56
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 26?	11	$18	135	137	-2	open	—	04-24 16:23
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 280 299	10	$17	27	27	+0	open	—	03-27 14:13
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	5	$15	21	20	+1	open	—	04-27 17:03
cz binance of tweets april 3 april 10 2026 20 39	4	$15	22	22	+0	open	—	04-09 09:51
cz binance of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 20 39	2	$14	20	20	+1	open	—	04-12 07:02
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 240 259	3	$13	65	63	+3	open	—	04-12 18:53
cz binance of tweets april 10 april 17 2026 40 59	5	$13	25	24	+1	open	—	04-12 09:58
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 140 164	3	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-13 11:50
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	9	$12	16	16	+1	open	—	04-10 12:42
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26?	11	$12	65	71	-6	open	—	04-24 16:23
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	2	$11	55	55	+0	open	—	03-25 06:59
donald trump of truth social posts april 3 april 10 100 119	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-09 09:49
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26?	8	$10	27	33	-6	open	—	04-24 17:04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	6	$10	73	0	+73	No	$-10	04-25 19:01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$10	83	0	+83	open	—	04-25 04:48
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	5	$10	83	0	+83	open	—	04-25 04:48
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	5	$10	83	0	+83	open	—	04-25 04:48
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 26?	3	$10	32	30	+1	open	—	04-24 17:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-28 11:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x22dfe7…
04-28 06:52:30	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x9491c7…
04-28 06:52:30	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	230	0¢	$0	0x17d3ac…
04-28 06:52:08	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	138	0¢	$0	0x42176c…
04-28 06:52:08	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	138	0¢	$0	0x3b5ee8…
04-28 06:51:54	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	262	0¢	$0	0xcf0db3…
04-28 06:51:54	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	262	0¢	$0	0x7c954a…
04-28 06:51:40	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	380	0¢	$0	0xe5fefb…
04-28 06:51:40	Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	370	0¢	$0	0xc9e31a…
04-28 06:44:28	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xce11da…
04-28 06:18:02	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xf071f5…
04-28 06:17:44	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	151	0¢	$0	0x203250…
04-28 05:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6324e3…
04-28 05:37:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xe41be9…
04-28 05:36:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0x1a33d3…
04-27 23:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0xfb0d82…
04-27 23:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xdfabb4…
04-27 22:01:02	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x5e5f4c…
04-27 22:00:46	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	338	0¢	$1	0xf5636b…
04-27 20:10:04	Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xbc58e4…
04-27 19:59:14	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa38444…
04-27 19:58:54	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8bd99e…
04-27 19:58:50	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x5bfaba…
04-27 19:58:32	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0xe27514…
04-27 19:58:14	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x5cfe2a…
04-27 19:58:02	Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	176	0¢	$0	0xb78416…
04-27 18:57:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x48002c…
04-27 17:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0xc3cf66…
04-27 16:45:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x0e7235…
04-27 15:17:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x14555d…
04-27 14:47:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x5fb51e…
04-27 14:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xdf51a9…
04-27 14:26:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xbd0ec2…
04-27 14:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xc6cda6…
04-27 14:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x426663…
04-27 14:20:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xf22e2a…
04-27 14:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x178761…
04-27 13:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb803dc…
04-27 13:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xae59c8…
04-27 13:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x1a5677…
04-27 07:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x526637…
04-27 07:05:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x69a55d…
04-27 07:04:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1ff623…
04-27 07:02:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$1	0xe1ea82…
04-27 06:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x1426f1…
04-27 06:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x452c34…
04-27 06:53:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x126f4e…
04-27 06:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xac4eac…
04-27 06:33:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x6df08f…
04-27 06:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xa0f57a…
04-27 05:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5b8e32…
04-27 05:46:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8cc03b…
04-27 03:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0xa397b8…
04-26 17:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb0466c…
04-26 13:10:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x06a4e1…
04-26 10:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x7ac93a…
04-26 10:14:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xd3427f…
04-26 09:24:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xbda787…
04-26 08:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xc7aa86…
04-26 08:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x81244e…
04-26 07:17:12	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xe15938…
04-26 07:16:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x29e24c…
04-26 07:16:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x7c074c…
04-26 07:15:26	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x16f738…
04-26 06:59:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xe9aa3b…
04-26 06:59:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x35fff0…
04-26 06:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xac8a75…
04-26 06:10:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x501ac9…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xfe03f3…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xd416eb…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd28886…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x92d2fa…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x55c2a0…
04-26 05:54:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x12d2cd…
04-26 05:38:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x6eaf9e…
04-26 05:37:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3d0c0d…
04-26 05:35:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe2a59a…
04-26 04:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x9a103f…
04-26 04:57:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe9f48f…
04-26 04:57:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7bb668…
04-26 04:54:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x946768…
04-26 04:47:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x592e52…
04-26 04:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x01384b…
04-25 21:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$3	0x276921…
04-25 20:23:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xe09495…
04-25 20:23:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa61e94…
04-25 19:01:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x226388…
04-25 16:23:56	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x59f439…
04-25 16:13:30	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb47e40…
04-25 09:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0e940a…
04-25 08:23:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xf89bb4…
04-25 08:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$1	0x7fe422…
04-25 08:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x490eb3…
04-25 08:17:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x04dbc5…
04-25 07:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xdf4c48…
04-25 07:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x69ab02…
04-25 07:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x2594b0…
04-25 06:55:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 25?	Yes	SELL	6	56¢	$3	0xe1af85…
04-25 06:37:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xfd284b…
04-25 06:36:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26?	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xee4ac6…