Tender-Scarf — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

349

Trades

733

lifetime

Volume

$8.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-24 12:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

73% 76% -$8

Crypto

19% 80% +$0

Politics

4% 92% +$0

Sports

3% 62% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ice cream man score at least 25 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260805173450583	4	$92	46	46	+0	Yes	$0	08-09 23:18
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 23?	4	$73	36	36	+0	No	+$0	07-22 23:22
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	$0	08-23 18:12
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be <1 minute?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-25 15:19
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	08-10 18:44
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 8?	6	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	08-08 01:29
ethereum above 1700 on july 26 2026	4	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	07-26 00:56
ethereum above 1700 on july 27 2026	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	07-27 07:05
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-19 18:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 28?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-28 21:45
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-02 22:06
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on August 7?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-07 03:30
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 16?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-15 23:42
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on August 27?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	08-27 18:16
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	08-24 05:50
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on July 18?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-17 18:32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 23?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-23 07:19
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	09-01 01:54
will bitcoin reach 68k july 20 26 2026	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-27 00:08
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15?	2	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	05-15 14:05
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	$0	08-02 08:00
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or below on August 2?	4	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	08-01 23:04
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 25?	3	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-24 13:07
bitcoin above 70k on july 30 2026	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-29 19:33
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 29?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	08-28 12:05
will josh hader be traded by the 2026 mlb trade deadline 20260728182533473	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$0	08-04 02:23
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 27?	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-27 17:40
ethereum above 2100 on august 1 2026	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	08-01 07:15
Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	08-05 01:07
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	$0	07-31 03:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 12:08:42	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0x33d4ba…
10-20 16:52:41	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x6ad8cc…
09-01 09:48:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on September 1?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x7631b2…
09-01 05:04:37	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0fd958…
09-01 01:54:36	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x01f09a…
09-01 01:13:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x27a140…
09-01 01:05:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on September 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0f86a…
08-31 22:52:04	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x27429e…
08-31 20:10:27	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xdbd252…
08-31 20:01:34	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 in August?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x881b96…
08-31 20:01:03	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x647928…
08-31 05:03:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x68a6f3…
08-31 03:09:04	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc25001…
08-30 22:51:15	will bitcoin dip to 72k august 24 30 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x7b6801…
08-30 22:07:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xaf6a62…
08-30 19:40:31	will bitcoin dip to 72k august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x036801…
08-30 15:55:42	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd6197d…
08-30 15:16:06	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 in August?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x311fdf…
08-29 23:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe3b314…
08-29 23:53:07	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on August 30?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x284162…
08-29 23:16:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb4a691…
08-29 19:43:16	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd14a3a…
08-28 12:05:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 29?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2575ec…
08-28 09:17:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on August 28?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd09350…
08-28 07:53:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 29?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf72c2c…
08-28 00:15:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 28?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe6fc4e…
08-27 22:39:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on August 28?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd70e77…
08-27 21:58:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 28?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc9dac3…
08-27 19:19:25	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd78062…
08-27 19:19:16	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf7f2ac…
08-27 19:17:52	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf6bd21…
08-27 18:47:49	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe455b6…
08-27 18:20:43	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x38f43e…
08-27 18:20:00	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe5ad84…
08-27 18:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on August 27?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x649a40…
08-27 15:28:28	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6d617c…
08-27 12:04:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7e08cd…
08-27 03:40:22	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be at least 0.8%?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xdec540…
08-27 00:20:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbac27d…
08-27 00:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xae444c…
08-26 22:36:04	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on August 27?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9c3f55…
08-26 18:36:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xfa7a2b…
08-26 18:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x269681…
08-26 17:15:43	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4234f6…
08-26 11:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd46f0a…
08-25 15:00:03	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 25?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7b2830…
08-25 14:49:10	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x286cc0…
08-25 14:14:15	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2f9bf5…
08-25 09:42:48	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 25?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1237c6…
08-25 09:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 25?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x763475…
08-25 07:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x7d5197…
08-25 07:39:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x62f1ed…
08-25 07:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x6e635d…
08-25 03:36:52	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x724f4c…
08-24 23:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 25?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xb7f794…
08-24 21:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7c6dee…
08-24 15:13:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xa9e87a…
08-24 05:50:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x25d6c3…
08-24 02:09:15	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 24?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdb157c…
08-24 00:44:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb9a551…
08-23 20:28:21	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2e813f…
08-23 18:14:24	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x64c493…
08-23 18:12:45	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x03f40d…
08-23 14:25:37	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4975be…
08-23 11:34:43	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa80368…
08-14 20:27:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x493c82…
08-14 16:04:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x692560…
08-14 16:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on August 15?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$19	0xe4eb95…
08-14 11:42:49	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on August 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x2c1a3a…
08-14 09:41:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd3447…
08-14 02:37:55	will russia target kyiv on august 12 2026 20260810162903047	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xed6ecb…
08-13 22:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 14?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x851477…
08-13 15:33:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x81afdf…
08-13 08:08:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 13?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1cc68b…
08-13 08:07:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 13?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfed5b5…
08-12 23:30:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 13?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc671a1…
08-12 23:00:07	will russia target kyiv on august 12 2026 20260810162903047	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1f97c3…
08-12 21:56:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 13?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$6	0x3222d7…
08-12 21:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa7e988…
08-12 19:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x44e5f0…
08-12 19:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60f5b2…
08-12 18:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 12?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xcf73d1…
08-12 17:59:01	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 12?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6db5d4…
08-12 15:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xbb45f2…
08-12 09:17:28	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 12?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x472287…
08-12 08:37:24	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xa488de…
08-12 05:31:46	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9622f4…
08-12 02:33:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 12?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xc11ec2…
08-12 02:17:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 12?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x931844…
08-12 01:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 12?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x69bf24…
08-11 20:20:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa2b21b…
08-11 14:18:49	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfa39ba…
08-11 12:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 11?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa8b3d7…
08-11 12:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 11?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x77886c…
08-11 12:10:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 11?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x416566…
08-11 12:10:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 11?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2fbf42…
08-11 12:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on August 11?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x5637ab…
08-11 11:48:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 11?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd96d33…
08-11 11:47:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 11?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x9e4336…
08-11 09:42:45	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x069169…