Probable-Basket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.65K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

Trades

121

lifetime

Volume

$9.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 06-04 05:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

73% 81% +$52

Politics

19% 0% -$1,660

Crypto

9% 67% -$38

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	2	$1.9K	969	969	+0	FaZe	+$18	05-27 16:34
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$1.8K	947	947	+0	BNK FEARX	+$38	05-27 13:54
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	6	$1.3K	1,607	1,607	+0	No	-$1,172	05-31 22:11
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$513	644	644	+0	Yes	-$487	05-31 22:16
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	3	$439	229	229	+0	Karmine Corp	+$19	05-30 19:39
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season	4	$424	333	333	+0	Contra	-$118	05-27 01:23
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$421	224	224	+0	T1	+$27	05-30 13:41
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs	2	$401	211	211	+0	PCIFIC	+$21	05-26 18:00
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	2	$285	146	146	+0	100 Thieves	+$5	05-30 02:52
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs	2	$236	137	137	+0	Conviction	+$36	05-29 22:31
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	3	$190	105	105	+0	9z	-$8	05-28 17:23
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$179	100	100	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$20	05-28 12:26
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	3	$167	91	91	+0	Team Secret Whales	+$15	05-29 14:21
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	2	$157	80	80	+0	MIBR	+$1	05-28 02:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-31 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	1	$99	158	0	+158	Up	-$99	05-31 22:51
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	2	$59	33	33	+0	Team Secret Whales	+$7	05-31 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$52	101	0	+101	Down	+$49	05-31 22:41
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$52	32	32	+0	Gen.G	+$12	05-27 11:18
dota2 grind carst 2026 06 04	1	$50	56	0	+56	Carstensz	-$50	06-04 05:01
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	3	$43	57	57	+0	G2 Esports	+$3	05-25 18:02
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	2	$42	25	25	+0	LOUD	+$6	05-31 03:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	1	$39	54	0	+54	Down	+$15	05-31 22:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$33	46	46	+0	Up	-$31	05-31 23:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	1	$30	50	0	+50	Up	+$20	05-29 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	1	$29	39	0	+39	Down	+$10	05-31 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	1	$26	32	0	+32	Down	+$6	05-31 23:36
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$23	13	13	+0	Dplus KIA	+$3	05-29 11:11
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	2	$22	12	12	+0	Top Esports	+$2	05-29 14:21
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	2	$21	11	11	+0	JD Gaming	+$1	05-29 11:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 05:07:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x04dc0f…
06-04 05:01:00	dota2 grind carst 2026 06 04	Grind Back	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xd0b226…
06-04 04:46:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6900c4…
06-04 04:44:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xb97462…
05-31 23:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	46	3¢	$1	0x7f47ba…
05-31 23:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	46	69¢	$32	0xd7abf8…
05-31 23:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	32	80¢	$26	0xe4dde6…
05-31 22:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	158	63¢	$99	0x84d91f…
05-31 22:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x778069…
05-31 22:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	101	51¢	$52	0xdb77b1…
05-31 22:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	54	72¢	$39	0x5cf682…
05-31 22:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	39	74¢	$29	0x112a01…
05-31 22:16:02	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	644	2¢	$13	0x0c1e78…
05-31 22:11:24	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,576	1¢	$18	0xe83a61…
05-31 20:09:25	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	43	76¢	$33	0xd5a9ee…
05-31 14:39:17	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x6d4a3b…
05-31 05:03:58	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	BUY	33	78¢	$26	0x90d616…
05-31 04:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x7993a2…
05-31 04:02:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xc06ac9…
05-31 03:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xb722e3…
05-31 03:08:07	Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	LOUD	SELL	25	100¢	$24	0x2543b6…
05-31 02:44:45	Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	LOUD	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x393c87…
05-31 02:16:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xebafce…
05-31 02:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x2e645b…
05-31 02:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x9bea00…
05-31 02:06:35	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	31	77¢	$24	0x536e7b…
05-30 23:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xd913a2…
05-30 23:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xdad5eb…
05-30 23:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0x5e78f4…
05-30 23:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	18	71¢	$13	0xe54cbb…
05-30 23:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0xd2dc6e…
05-30 22:47:45	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	644	78¢	$500	0xcbbbd2…
05-30 19:39:02	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Karmine Corp	SELL	229	100¢	$229	0xd7fab8…
05-30 19:00:59	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x8ae285…
05-30 16:19:17	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Karmine Corp	BUY	93	97¢	$90	0x486588…
05-30 15:34:22	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Karmine Corp	BUY	136	88¢	$120	0x1edb7e…
05-30 13:41:03	LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	SELL	224	100¢	$224	0x231f9b…
05-30 04:36:36	LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	BUY	224	88¢	$197	0xef1248…
05-30 02:52:53	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	100 Thieves	SELL	146	99¢	$145	0x2fc759…
05-30 02:41:21	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	100 Thieves	BUY	146	96¢	$140	0xeaaa42…
05-30 00:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x2808e6…
05-30 00:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xfa3e7e…
05-30 00:00:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8ce467…
05-29 23:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf58af6…
05-29 23:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x120ed7…
05-29 23:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc25eaa…
05-29 23:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x77fa58…
05-29 23:23:50	Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xb37227…
05-29 23:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xa11470…
05-29 23:09:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xbf63f7…
05-29 23:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xc9076b…
05-29 22:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x0925ba…
05-29 22:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xfbb3f4…
05-29 22:31:52	LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs	Conviction	SELL	137	99¢	$136	0x6e2fed…
05-29 18:40:47	LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs	Conviction	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xd2cc60…
05-29 18:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x7ab914…
05-29 18:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x8de3d6…
05-29 16:51:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x0df3b0…
05-29 16:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x1e01dc…
05-29 16:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x81d85f…
05-29 16:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x93fe2b…
05-29 16:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x7f6249…
05-29 16:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x6351be…
05-29 15:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xec4f18…
05-29 15:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x72be71…
05-29 15:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xdd44bf…
05-29 15:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x758b21…
05-29 15:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x739dc4…
05-29 15:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x28bc70…
05-29 15:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9ddb96…
05-29 14:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xc1df67…
05-29 14:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xfd59bb…
05-29 14:21:24	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xed2ba2…
05-29 14:21:19	LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Top Esports	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x5deeb6…
05-29 11:11:31	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7b02c5…
05-29 11:11:09	LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	JD Gaming	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1976a9…
05-29 04:51:31	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0xc0fcc3…
05-29 04:50:07	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	BUY	74	83¢	$62	0x4ac1c8…
05-29 04:48:09	LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Top Esports	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb05cc3…
05-29 04:47:29	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x71e466…
05-29 04:46:30	LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	JD Gaming	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x4d52ac…
05-29 04:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xa777c9…
05-29 04:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xc5d333…
05-29 04:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x987afe…
05-29 04:26:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe9bea4…
05-29 04:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x30ae2a…
05-29 04:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x5fd0cd…
05-29 04:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x51ae33…
05-29 03:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x7538d9…
05-29 03:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xf37fd7…
05-28 20:12:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x8fade1…
05-28 17:23:54	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	9z	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x5eca35…
05-28 17:20:35	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	9z	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0x8d50ef…
05-28 15:59:49	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	9z	BUY	105	94¢	$99	0xa74444…
05-28 12:26:33	LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x1a2a0f…
05-28 02:42:50	LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xca16d5…
05-28 02:02:53	Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	MIBR	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x912800…
05-28 01:56:35	Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	MIBR	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x6ca85a…
05-27 16:37:10	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,252	76¢	$950	0x8bc2c4…
05-27 16:34:46	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	FaZe	SELL	969	100¢	$968	0x15f87d…