Muddy-Wraparound — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-06

last 07-23 21:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

79% 100% +$2

Other

16% 100% +$2

Sports

5% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes		+33	$9	31¢	$10	+$1	06-11 19:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	13	$857	710	310	+400	open	—	05-24 22:30
will trump say shots fired or shots will be fired during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255814	2	$433	489	0	+489	open	—	07-23 21:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	4	$409	233	233	+0	open	—	05-24 17:42
will trump say plastic egg during the white house easter egg roll	1	$216	300	0	+300	open	—	04-06 14:25
will trump say beer this week 20260703145736713	1	$207	215	0	+215	open	—	07-11 05:26
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	3	$152	155	0	+155	No	+$2	05-12 01:01
will trump say winner during ufc 250 20260610182827986	2	$140	236	0	+236	open	—	06-14 15:19
Will "Hillary" or "Clinton" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$131	133	0	+133	No	+$1	05-08 22:56
will elon post tesla on x this week 20260703150058734	1	$109	110	0	+110	open	—	07-09 17:31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$106	128	0	+128	open	—	05-26 00:03
Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$89	90	0	+90	No	+$1	05-08 22:55
will trump say aliens are real in march	2	$88	104	0	+104	open	—	03-07 17:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	3	$87	148	0	+148	open	—	05-24 18:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$85	100	0	+100	open	—	05-26 13:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	3	$83	103	0	+103	open	—	05-26 19:36
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	2	$81	130	0	+130	open	—	05-28 23:56
will trump say ballroom during the white house easter egg roll	2	$80	124	0	+124	open	—	04-06 13:43
will elon post neuralink on x this week 20260703150058735	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	07-09 17:33
will david or sacks be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	1	$79	79	0	+79	open	—	03-13 18:11
will trump say assassin or assassinate during tpusa events on april 17	4	$64	100	0	+100	open	—	04-17 21:48
will nasa be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	1	$49	49	0	+49	open	—	03-06 14:46
will leavitt say thing 10 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723134130087	2	$46	98	0	+98	open	—	07-23 14:44
will trump say ballroom during ufc 250 20260610182827982	3	$44	67	0	+67	open	—	06-15 00:36
will trump say n word in march	3	$41	46	0	+46	open	—	03-06 22:10
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	1	$33	100	0	+100	open	—	05-23 20:11
will trump say hottest nation in march	1	$24	33	0	+33	open	—	03-06 14:58
will trump post wall street on truth social this week 20260622154014256	1	$23	26	0	+26	open	—	06-28 00:09
will trump say truth social in march	1	$18	50	0	+50	open	—	03-09 17:06
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-08 22:59
will trump post pope on truth social this week 20260622154014259	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	06-28 00:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 21:44:31	will trump say shots fired or shots will be fired during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255814	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x7e37a4…
07-23 14:44:54	will leavitt say thing 10 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723134130087	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0xc460b9…
07-23 14:19:21	will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723134130085	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x01b0f9…
07-23 14:19:16	will leavitt say president 40 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723134130084	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0xcbdcdc…
07-23 14:18:27	will leavitt say thing 10 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723134130087	No	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0xf22401…
07-23 14:15:34	will trump say shots fired or shots will be fired during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255814	No	BUY	289	89¢	$257	0xd0f39d…
07-11 05:26:26	will trump say beer this week 20260703145736713	No	BUY	215	96¢	$207	0x8f31df…
07-11 05:22:32	will trump say communist or communism this week 20260710153927790	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x470671…
07-09 17:33:25	will elon post neuralink on x this week 20260703150058735	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xcf8372…
07-09 17:31:04	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260703150058734	Yes	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xd37d0c…
06-28 00:09:19	will trump post wall street on truth social this week 20260622154014256	No	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0x46e5e3…
06-28 00:08:52	will trump post pope on truth social this week 20260622154014259	No	BUY	16	89¢	$15	0x2c3e0d…
06-15 00:36:15	will trump say ballroom during ufc 250 20260610182827982	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xccd004…
06-14 18:57:03	will trump say ballroom during ufc 250 20260610182827982	No	BUY	19	71¢	$14	0x1092cb…
06-14 15:19:18	will trump say winner during ufc 250 20260610182827986	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x74bdd0…
06-14 15:19:12	will trump say winner during ufc 250 20260610182827986	No	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0xf5b436…
06-14 15:14:07	will trump say ballroom during ufc 250 20260610182827982	No	BUY	27	72¢	$19	0xf77c6e…
06-11 19:58:28	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	28¢	$8	0x7c8642…
06-10 13:17:16	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x38767f…
05-28 23:56:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	96	61¢	$59	0xfd692d…
05-28 03:18:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0xc79b49…
05-26 19:36:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	41	82¢	$34	0x6d11a5…
05-26 19:36:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0x4ec904…
05-26 13:42:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	44	78¢	$34	0x60963d…
05-26 13:40:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x958992…
05-26 00:03:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	80	83¢	$66	0xef7ef0…
05-24 22:30:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xdcc0a3…
05-24 22:30:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x021e54…
05-24 22:27:53	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xad872b…
05-24 22:14:53	Will Bernie say "Iran" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xdc656f…
05-24 18:26:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	75	91¢	$68	0x2b70e4…
05-24 18:25:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x3840fb…
05-24 18:24:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	48	82¢	$39	0x5da91c…
05-24 18:22:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xfc8ded…
05-24 18:19:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	18	58¢	$10	0x34f3b3…
05-24 18:19:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	30	58¢	$18	0x9bdf65…
05-24 18:18:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x6c4807…
05-24 18:17:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x71b0fa…
05-24 17:42:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x318fed…
05-24 17:42:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	233	97¢	$226	0x56649c…
05-24 17:42:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	SELL	310	91¢	$282	0xa14feb…
05-24 14:32:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	33	62¢	$21	0x4feb14…
05-24 14:28:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	33	73¢	$24	0x898612…
05-24 14:21:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	77	70¢	$54	0x8c52dd…
05-24 14:15:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xcf4b77…
05-24 14:15:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6231cf…
05-24 14:15:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xf924f6…
05-24 14:14:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xb74141…
05-23 20:11:07	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x880a57…
05-12 01:01:47	Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x1213cc…
05-12 00:40:28	Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5c1865…
05-12 00:39:27	Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x8c7593…
05-08 22:59:55	Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x969a20…
05-08 22:56:44	Will "Hillary" or "Clinton" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x29314c…
05-08 22:55:32	Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xe03317…
04-24 06:24:10	will shit be said 5 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xdd6475…
04-24 05:43:06	will fuck be said 5 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	No	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x0031ee…
04-17 21:48:02	will trump say assassin or assassinate during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0xcc023a…
04-17 21:39:22	will trump say assassin or assassinate during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xb7779e…
04-17 21:32:58	will trump say assassin or assassinate during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0d274f…
04-17 21:32:52	will trump say assassin or assassinate during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x1a7638…
04-13 06:15:15	Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x25dc97…
04-06 14:25:23	will trump say plastic egg during the white house easter egg roll	No	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0x301940…
04-06 13:43:35	will trump say ballroom during the white house easter egg roll	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x9fe63b…
04-06 13:43:35	will trump say ballroom during the white house easter egg roll	No	BUY	121	65¢	$78	0x9e12ba…
03-13 18:11:51	will david or sacks be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xafb6ec…
03-09 17:06:13	will trump say truth social in march	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x94bbb6…
03-07 17:32:11	will trump say aliens are real in march	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x5544fe…
03-07 15:00:01	will trump say aliens are real in march	No	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0xe78993…
03-06 22:10:05	will trump say n word in march	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7ccf15…
03-06 17:29:27	will trump say n word in march	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x7ef5d9…
03-06 17:27:55	will trump say n word in march	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x5c5af9…
03-06 14:58:31	will trump say hottest nation in march	No	BUY	33	72¢	$24	0xeb99ba…
03-06 14:46:33	will nasa be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x37d43e…
03-06 14:43:13	will zohran or mamdani be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa4e38d…