Flawed-Tower — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.7%

Resolved

105

Trades

143

lifetime

Volume

$2.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 11-06 11:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 97% $0

Other

25% 93% +$1

Politics

18% 62% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	11	$269	7,269	7,269	+0	No	-$2	02-19 12:53
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	3	$62	32	32	+0	No	-$1	04-15 09:12
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$59	500	500	+0	No	+$0	03-08 17:16
will bitcoin reach 82k on march 17	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	03-17 14:42
bitcoin above 58k on march 13	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-13 05:12
ethereum above 1900 on march 16	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-16 09:54
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-14 13:52
us strikes iraq by march 7	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-11 11:34
bitcoin above 64k on march 29	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-29 13:37
will bitcoin dip to 65k on march 15	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	03-15 13:10
bitcoin above 64k on march 19	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-19 03:22
bitcoin above 64k on march 22	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-22 06:17
bitcoin above 62k on march 27	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-27 12:34
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-05 05:50
bitcoin above 68k on april 14	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	04-14 02:02
bitcoin above 72k on march 26	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	03-26 13:39
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	03-04 13:18
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	02-28 03:35
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$38	500	500	+0	No	$0	02-11 15:58
bitcoin above 76k on march 21	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	03-21 04:08
bitcoin above 64k on march 24	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	03-24 02:11
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$32	33	0	+33	No	+$1	02-18 16:03
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-17 03:49
bitcoin above 80k on april 16	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-16 03:17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	3	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	09-11 06:28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-16 16:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	05-18 15:24
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	05-14 15:05
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-31 03:03
bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-07 09:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 11:47:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66be97…
11-05 05:21:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 5?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9046ea…
11-03 08:46:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 3?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x26db08…
11-01 13:29:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcbfd17…
10-27 11:57:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeda6a5…
10-23 09:18:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x759ae1…
10-20 14:30:11	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x33c018…
10-19 07:51:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x38ee90…
10-14 04:47:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 14?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd0c166…
10-12 05:02:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc66f21…
09-30 01:14:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x266d52…
09-21 04:49:34	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe82194…
09-16 18:11:15	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbcf036…
09-15 14:16:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 15?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x195c5e…
09-14 13:51:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8d461e…
09-11 06:28:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x72109e…
09-11 06:28:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x2932bb…
09-10 12:46:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x310853…
09-09 04:48:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 9?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb00acc…
09-07 11:46:49	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd26e37…
09-04 05:49:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x56ca87…
09-01 11:07:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 1?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x386a2b…
08-27 08:09:15	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x56b38f…
08-21 07:42:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x954dd6…
08-13 13:04:21	ethereum above 1700 on august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3723c9…
08-11 12:46:43	bitcoin above 68k on august 11 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc80ac1…
08-06 05:22:00	bitcoin above 60k on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x187fa0…
08-04 09:20:08	bitcoin above 60k on august 4 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0x545193…
07-30 12:38:56	bitcoin above 58k on july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x932740…
07-28 03:58:36	bitcoin above 58k on july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x497126…
07-24 07:23:52	bitcoin above 60k on july 24 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc469ca…
07-23 08:34:07	ethereum above 2100 on july 23 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x9351fe…
07-22 09:49:28	bitcoin above 70k on july 22 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe58a98…
07-20 13:05:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x7a81c7…
07-17 09:15:12	bitcoin above 66k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x4b0945…
07-16 08:51:20	bitcoin above 70k on july 16 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x51593a…
07-11 03:00:44	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x844149…
07-07 09:47:16	bitcoin above 58k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x342aab…
07-03 09:09:34	bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x29cb42…
07-01 01:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb94b20…
06-22 13:34:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x313708…
06-18 14:52:01	bitcoin above 62k on june 18 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xef5194…
06-17 05:30:16	bitcoin above 60k on june 17 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xcee14e…
06-15 14:07:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc36f42…
06-14 13:27:31	ethereum above 1800 on june 14 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7f49fb…
06-10 05:32:10	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf04d69…
06-09 08:06:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x273973…
06-08 05:56:19	ethereum above 1900 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc2f0cf…
06-07 09:18:40	bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6db2e7…
06-05 14:13:37	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf18ded…
06-03 01:34:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x95799c…
06-01 12:13:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfd7abc…
05-31 03:03:08	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x049d61…
05-28 09:56:49	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcc0f9f…
05-26 15:41:47	Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x32d108…
05-25 03:28:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa7427d…
05-22 15:05:13	Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbee9b2…
05-20 19:09:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xcf54c6…
05-18 15:24:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x36cdac…
05-16 16:46:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2804b5…
05-14 15:05:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xf5e652…
05-13 10:26:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xeb3b8c…
05-12 13:34:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2b9997…
05-10 20:30:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb86bb2…
05-04 09:12:16	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x99f1d4…
04-27 07:46:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x60037b…
04-25 04:37:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xac3029…
04-22 21:50:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe97475…
04-22 12:18:28	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 115 139	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x488e48…
04-19 09:25:02	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 165 189	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x87ba10…
04-18 07:59:40	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 140 164	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x125f2f…
04-17 03:49:04	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8b85a8…
04-16 03:17:24	bitcoin above 80k on april 16	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6cfd69…
04-15 09:12:12	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xe4c4e6…
04-15 09:12:12	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	SELL	20	96¢	$20	0x1cd602…
04-15 05:47:08	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 90 114	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x410888…
04-15 02:36:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa54669…
04-14 02:02:09	bitcoin above 68k on april 14	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb448b4…
04-13 15:27:03	bitcoin above 74k on april 13	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xbb4cd5…
04-13 02:43:19	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	819	0¢	$2	0x48b1eb…
04-12 18:40:55	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	161	0¢	$1	0xb8ba79…
04-12 18:40:49	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	659	0¢	$3	0x2512e1…
04-12 11:35:13	bitcoin above 68k on april 12	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x840076…
04-11 18:58:23	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x2cda3d…
04-09 14:25:41	bitcoin above 74k on april 9	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xafbcde…
04-08 09:47:11	highest temperature in beijing on april 9 2026 7corbelow	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x38650b…
04-06 07:36:31	elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 140 164	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6109ca…
03-31 06:05:37	highest temperature in shanghai on april 1 2026 14corbelow	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9e687a…
03-29 13:37:40	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xece915…
03-27 12:34:17	bitcoin above 62k on march 27	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x185d2f…
03-26 13:39:27	bitcoin above 72k on march 26	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x100fa8…
03-25 09:48:59	xrp above 1pt6 on march 25	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf560d5…
03-24 02:11:27	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xce02ec…
03-22 06:17:41	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xfaa793…
03-21 04:08:35	bitcoin above 76k on march 21	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x41408b…
03-19 03:22:17	bitcoin above 64k on march 19	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc27495…
03-17 14:42:17	will bitcoin reach 82k on march 17	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x6cc029…
03-16 09:54:01	ethereum above 1900 on march 16	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xee3b31…
03-15 13:10:43	will bitcoin dip to 65k on march 15	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x16866e…
03-14 13:52:13	bitcoin above 68k on march 14	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9fe03c…