Shady-Larch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$71

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

392

Trades

2,315

lifetime

Volume

$4.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 09-18 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 45% -$37

Politics

10% 67% -$25

Other

10% 65% +$6

Sports

2% 33% -$15

Tech

0% 50% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 02:05 UTC	56	$280	508	0	+508	Up	-$128	02-25 02:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:55 UTC	48	$221	396	0	+396	Up	+$30	02-25 01:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 02:15 UTC	34	$170	271	0	+271	Down	-$5	02-25 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:05 UTC	55	$165	344	0	+344	Up	-$41	02-25 01:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 02:30 UTC	33	$152	2,251	0	+2,251	Down	-$152	02-25 02:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 02:00 UTC	29	$136	605	0	+605	Up	-$21	02-25 02:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 00:00 UTC	42	$124	402	0	+402	Down	-$60	02-25 00:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:45 UTC	25	$121	246	0	+246	Up	+$124	02-25 01:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:05 UTC	40	$118	181	0	+181	Down	+$14	02-24 23:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:00 UTC	38	$110	214	0	+214	Down	-$3	02-25 00:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 01:45 UTC	19	$91	161	0	+161	Up	+$35	02-25 01:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 00:45 UTC	29	$86	179	0	+179	Down	+$59	02-25 00:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:55 UTC	29	$85	128	0	+128	Up	+$43	02-24 22:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 02:15 UTC	17	$85	168	0	+168	Down	-$44	02-25 02:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:35 UTC	16	$75	162	0	+162	Up	+$87	02-25 01:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:50 UTC	72	$72	146	0	+146	Down	-$1	02-24 21:52
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 17:45 UTC	43	$69	73	62	+11	Down	-$2	02-24 18:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:05 UTC	68	$68	129	0	+129	Down	+$22	02-24 22:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 17:45 UTC	44	$67	71	64	+7	Up	-$5	02-24 17:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 17:30 UTC	56	$64	120	46	+74	Down	-$16	02-24 17:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:15 UTC	22	$63	123	0	+123	Up	-$10	02-25 01:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:20 UTC	22	$60	105	0	+105	Down	+$45	02-25 00:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 01:15 UTC	19	$57	111	0	+111	Up	-$12	02-25 01:15
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 17:30 UTC	49	$56	58	46	+12	Down	+$0	02-24 17:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 21:30 UTC	45	$45	81	0	+81	Up	+$13	02-24 21:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 18:30 UTC	31	$43	45	38	+7	Up	-$1	02-24 18:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:20 UTC	43	$43	77	0	+77	Up	+$20	02-24 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 01:25 UTC	14	$42	83	0	+83	Down	-$10	02-25 01:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:45 UTC	14	$41	67	0	+67	Down	+$13	02-25 00:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 18:45 UTC	34	$36	30	26	+5	Up	+$3	02-24 18:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-18 08:55:42	Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on September 18?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5ceefa…
09-18 00:30:18	will the announcers say trade during the lions vs bills game 20260918	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe7edbd…
09-16 23:46:34	Will Trump say "Hunter" or "Laptop" this week?	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x32668c…
09-16 23:44:39	Will Trump say "Hunter" or "Laptop" this week?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd492e3…
09-16 23:40:45	Will Trump say "Migrant Criminal" this week?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x1c5b31…
09-16 18:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 16?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3ab4e7…
09-16 18:38:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 16?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xe744db…
09-16 17:51:57	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 16?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x29f63d…
09-14 15:08:06	Will Mamdani say "Health" during his announcement?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa3978f…
09-12 17:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 12?	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xd7994a…
09-12 17:39:36	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 12?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x13526d…
09-12 15:55:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xa0a2cb…
09-12 15:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xa71cd0…
09-12 15:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x910301…
09-12 15:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xc043dc…
09-09 21:16:48	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on September 9?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xbed7b7…
09-09 04:31:12	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xd8fa67…
09-08 21:35:37	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xd772d5…
09-08 21:01:37	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd40b15…
09-06 23:03:25	Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on September 6?	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x237ba0…
09-06 18:59:45	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 6?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x0319e9…
09-06 18:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 6?	Yes	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x5d2eb0…
09-06 18:09:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1fb866…
09-06 16:26:48	Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on September 6?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x3d996e…
09-02 14:55:58	Will Mamdani say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during his announcement?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd691d7…
09-02 06:59:49	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5d2506…
09-01 20:39:19	Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x33f7cb…
09-01 20:39:16	Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x624e29…
09-01 20:39:04	Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x66f0f4…
09-01 20:37:01	Will Dell say "Tailwind" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd799b5…
09-01 20:36:24	Will Dell say "Tailwind" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xac7244…
09-01 19:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x73a704…
09-01 19:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x33d88e…
09-01 17:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x8bd597…
09-01 16:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x1e0504…
08-27 20:41:34	Will Ulta say "Reward" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xcbaacc…
08-27 20:41:33	Will Ulta say "Reward" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x7f57c6…
08-27 20:41:33	Will Ulta say "Reward" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x6b502f…
08-27 20:41:09	Will Ulta say "Reward" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xad59c4…
08-27 13:33:04	Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on August 27?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbdaeee…
08-27 13:21:34	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 27?	Yes	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0xebc49a…
08-27 09:21:12	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc187e0…
08-26 21:15:31	Will Nvidia say "Taiwan" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xacadbe…
08-26 21:15:25	Will Nvidia say "Taiwan" during earnings call?	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x88736f…
08-26 21:15:15	Will Nvidia say "Taiwan" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x91c845…
08-26 19:22:52	will mamdani say nypd during his announcement 20260930	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x99de53…
08-26 14:27:37	will mamdani say nypd during his announcement 20260930	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2b5c76…
08-25 23:26:24	Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 26?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x8e6e79…
08-25 23:26:07	Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 26?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x9e832f…
08-25 23:01:33	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe7ec56…
08-25 23:01:33	Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2411df…
08-24 21:19:01	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 24?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xbb8d38…
08-24 21:18:51	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 24?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd9cfb6…
08-24 20:21:28	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe99268…
08-24 17:05:06	will bessent say evade or evasion during press conference	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x472988…
08-24 17:04:54	will bessent say evade or evasion during press conference	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x99f36c…
08-24 16:25:31	will jd vance say border 5 times during his remarks in maine	Yes	SELL	3	83¢	$3	0xac2e74…
08-24 16:24:49	will jd vance say border 5 times during his remarks in maine	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x5deb11…
08-21 23:47:09	will trump say pearl harbor this week 20260823	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x17930a…
08-21 23:47:07	will trump say pearl harbor this week 20260823	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xdb3b64…
08-21 23:47:07	will trump say pearl harbor this week 20260823	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xda7335…
08-21 23:46:52	will trump say pearl harbor this week 20260823	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x26a240…
08-21 23:16:52	will trump say afford affordable affordability during his rally with darline graham	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x45b23a…
08-21 23:16:49	will trump say afford affordable affordability during his rally with darline graham	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xf9aab7…
08-20 19:49:52	will trump or melania say ai artificial intelligence during remarks in the white house rose garden	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x8c9c47…
08-20 19:49:40	will trump or melania say ai artificial intelligence during remarks in the white house rose garden	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xbddd39…
08-17 05:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3885b1…
08-17 02:51:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x971967…
08-17 02:47:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x9bbd46…
08-17 02:37:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x097c06…
08-17 02:35:48	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 16?	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xf14581…
08-17 02:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x851237…
08-17 02:05:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xbf2da2…
08-17 02:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa5b94c…
08-17 01:45:42	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf1d8d0…
08-16 03:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 16?	Yes	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x4d2268…
08-16 03:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x1d4139…
08-14 19:37:18	will trump say crime 15 times during remarks in new york 20260811183234680	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x7a91e6…
08-14 19:36:00	will trump say crime 15 times during remarks in new york 20260811183234680	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbb1a44…
08-14 18:37:52	will anyone say artemis during nasa news conference 20260812230553169	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x00cbec…
08-14 18:37:16	will anyone say artemis during nasa news conference 20260812230553169	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe1c75d…
08-11 15:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf827c1…
08-11 15:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x55d8c7…
08-11 14:02:10	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x25963c…
08-11 14:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xeb6abe…
08-11 13:52:46	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xf397c3…
08-11 13:52:46	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa587cb…
08-11 12:06:13	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x0eff86…
08-07 19:41:45	will trump say clean coal or beautiful coal during friday roundtable 20260805211427282	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xc7cd62…
08-07 19:41:40	will trump say clean coal or beautiful coal during friday roundtable 20260805211427282	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x1f5504…
08-06 23:13:18	will trump say team 15 times during team usa reception 20260806140037176	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x961913…
08-06 23:12:57	will trump say team 15 times during team usa reception 20260806140037176	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xbd4054…
08-05 21:21:14	will trump say dictionary in august 20260728220215917	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xa501a1…
08-05 21:21:02	will trump say dictionary in august 20260728220215917	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x654386…
08-05 21:20:32	will trump say dictionary in august 20260728220215917	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x590da5…
08-05 12:36:15	will disney say moana during earnings call 20260803163137850 593	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x883514…
08-04 13:30:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x9bf43a…
08-04 13:27:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x68853b…
08-04 12:51:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x14d29a…
08-04 11:20:39	will trump say american dream in august 20260728220215935	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x3649c1…