Insubstantial-Improvement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20.7K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.8%

Resolved

3,220

Trades

27,134

lifetime

Volume

$275.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-14 12:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 37% +$21,278

Other

1% 12% -$1,199

Sports

1% 60% +$585

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 350 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	36	$2.7K	6,187	0	+6,187	Up	-$952	09-10 05:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 00:05 UTC	83	$1.6K	1,255	1,219	+36	Down	+$800	04-08 00:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:15 UTC	47	$1.4K	1,757	1,137	+620	Up	+$454	03-24 01:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 04:30 UTC	14	$1.4K	2,353	0	+2,353	Up	-$1,400	09-14 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	15	$1.4K	2,205	0	+2,205	Up	+$850	09-26 14:13
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 3pm et	4	$1.3K	1,137	1,133	+4	Up	+$991	03-28 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 15:20 UTC	76	$1.1K	1,214	718	+496	Up	+$149	04-05 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	14	$1.1K	1,723	335	+1,387	Down	+$605	09-10 06:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	18	$1.1K	1,178	743	+435	Down	+$140	10-09 23:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 06:25 UTC	33	$876	765	542	+223	Up	+$421	03-24 06:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:15 UTC	23	$875	731	730	+1	Up	+$584	03-24 00:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 17:20 UTC	40	$847	679	573	+106	Up	+$223	04-05 17:24
Spurs vs. Thunder	2	$818	925	462	+462	Spurs	+$486	05-31 02:39
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 11pm et	2	$815	638	631	+7	Up	+$441	03-26 04:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 00:30 UTC	38	$797	1,739	0	+1,739	Down	+$645	03-27 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	78	$765	1,911	0	+1,911	Down	-$602	05-08 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 00:20 UTC	6	$761	497	492	+5	Down	+$208	03-27 00:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	10	$751	464	464	+0	Up	+$134	05-20 09:28
bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 4pm et	2	$736	639	637	+3	Down	+$539	03-28 21:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:40 UTC	88	$715	2,564	0	+2,564	Up	-$715	03-24 00:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 07:25 UTC	6	$710	1,572	0	+1,572	Up	+$410	04-22 07:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 06:15 UTC	2	$700	1,513	0	+1,513	Down	+$813	03-23 06:28
bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 12am et	2	$690	513	491	+23	Up	+$313	04-22 05:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 00:25 UTC	8	$690	1,412	0	+1,412	Down	-$325	06-13 00:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 00:30 UTC	11	$680	1,810	0	+1,810	Down	+$532	09-15 00:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 19:45 UTC	14	$659	1,160	0	+1,160	Down	+$501	04-05 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	38	$628	1,104	377	+727	Down	-$100	10-10 01:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 18:35 UTC	8	$618	794	393	+401	Up	-$27	04-05 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 06:15 UTC	22	$615	445	439	+6	Up	+$252	03-23 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	30	$608	327	453	-126	Down	+$153	04-30 04:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:12:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:10 UTC	Down	SELL	42	6¢	$3	0xb1b7c4…
10-14 12:11:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0xc27820…
10-14 12:08:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	85	4¢	$3	0xaf546c…
10-14 07:28:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	43	17¢	$7	0xdcbe3c…
10-14 07:28:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x2c1b31…
10-14 07:28:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xbfab2a…
10-14 07:17:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	29	8¢	$2	0x862efc…
10-14 07:07:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	SELL	75	7¢	$5	0x1babfd…
10-14 07:07:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	39	9¢	$4	0xae0d5a…
10-14 07:07:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xffeae6…
10-14 07:07:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x986354…
10-14 07:07:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x510096…
10-14 07:07:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x7040b2…
10-14 07:06:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x41d850…
10-14 07:06:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x019143…
10-14 07:06:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xcc0aae…
10-14 07:05:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xa036db…
10-14 07:04:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	126	1¢	$1	0xbf5b61…
10-14 07:04:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x5e7cbe…
10-14 07:04:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x1add76…
10-14 07:04:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x1dd3c1…
10-14 07:04:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	164	1¢	$2	0x1db498…
10-14 07:04:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x00825b…
10-14 07:04:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x57b22b…
10-14 07:04:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC	Down	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0xabcdc3…
10-14 03:28:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0x7165e9…
10-14 02:40:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x5e31dc…
10-14 02:31:32	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x84b452…
10-14 02:29:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Down	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xdce88d…
10-14 02:22:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xcc2f5d…
10-14 02:21:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0x2cd43a…
10-14 02:21:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xd99107…
10-14 02:20:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x613722…
10-14 02:20:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x7acc53…
10-14 01:58:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	116	8¢	$9	0x5cdebf…
10-13 15:19:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xfb7b1f…
10-13 12:31:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	31	27¢	$8	0xdb79c2…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xd92469…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xd1c126…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x9caee1…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x4d28fd…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x1d5505…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x183d2c…
10-13 12:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x0b80e7…
10-13 10:10:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0xbbeac9…
10-13 10:10:47	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0xd6a58d…
10-13 10:10:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0xd2c3c4…
10-13 10:09:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xde9480…
10-13 10:09:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x4698e5…
10-13 10:09:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc0912c…
10-13 10:09:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x644716…
10-13 10:07:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0xc1deda…
10-13 09:59:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0xaba956…
10-13 09:59:31	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xef05cf…
10-13 09:59:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0x876c02…
10-13 09:59:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8149d5…
10-13 09:59:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x7908bb…
10-13 09:59:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x42a565…
10-13 09:58:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0xa602a1…
10-13 09:58:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	70	13¢	$9	0x094530…
10-13 09:58:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0xaf8698…
10-13 09:58:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	28	30¢	$9	0x862ae6…
10-13 09:57:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x3c07c6…
10-13 09:57:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	26	35¢	$9	0x0baff2…
10-13 09:56:13	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	13	66¢	$9	0x498f5a…
10-13 09:56:10	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0xc6b81e…
10-13 09:56:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	71¢	$9	0xad3730…
10-13 03:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	76	3¢	$2	0x8873e9…
10-13 02:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	228	1¢	$2	0x721a10…
10-12 12:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1,013	2¢	$25	0x537b53…
10-12 10:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xdb3af7…
10-12 10:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x95d0bb…
10-12 10:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xedb974…
10-12 10:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x865b50…
10-12 10:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf648a6…
10-12 10:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xfdf72d…
10-12 10:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xcfc761…
10-12 10:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x471732…
10-12 10:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	77	12¢	$9	0xd94e47…
10-12 04:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0x95c8c1…
10-12 04:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0x21d7fd…
10-12 03:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	545	18¢	$100	0x475a69…
10-12 03:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	492	20¢	$100	0x4704ba…
10-12 03:29:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x951c19…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xf47483…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xeb4b06…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xea4ab2…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xdb87de…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xcc410e…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xc99e83…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xb052af…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xa0874b…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x97ae71…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x495271…
10-12 03:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x1c0ba4…
10-12 03:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0xa8157f…
10-12 03:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	31	62¢	$19	0xcc78bc…
10-12 03:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7cabe3…
10-12 03:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x746499…
10-12 03:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	44	12¢	$5	0xc20b6f…