Outlying-Rubric — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.14K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.9%

Resolved

Trades

167

lifetime

Volume

$9.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 05-25 15:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 45% -$1,133

Other

11% 50% +$107

Politics

4% 33% -$113

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bun dor bay 2026 02 28 bay	2	$683	488	488	+0	Yes	+$283	02-28 19:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 13:15 UTC	2	$549	357	352	+5	Up	+$154	03-01 13:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 13:30 UTC	2	$482	330	325	+5	Up	+$167	03-01 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 16:15 UTC	2	$362	238	234	+4	Up	+$106	03-01 16:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 17:00 UTC	1	$300	523	0	+523	Down	-$300	03-01 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$274	201	201	+0	Up	+$124	05-25 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	4	$256	182	182	+0	Down	+$106	05-25 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	4	$240	167	167	+0	Down	+$90	05-25 13:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 12:00 UTC	2	$227	154	152	+2	Up	+$76	03-01 12:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	5	$224	125	125	+0	Down	+$24	05-25 14:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 14:30 UTC	1	$210	358	0	+358	Down	+$148	03-01 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	4	$204	130	130	+0	Down	+$54	05-25 13:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 16:30 UTC	1	$200	469	0	+469	Down	-$200	03-01 16:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 15:45 UTC	1	$200	492	0	+492	Down	-$200	03-01 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	4	$197	123	123	+0	Down	+$47	05-25 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	4	$192	118	118	+0	Down	+$42	05-25 13:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 17:15 UTC	1	$190	523	0	+523	Down	-$190	03-01 17:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 12:30 UTC	1	$185	380	0	+380	Up	-$185	03-01 12:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	7	$175	10,128	0	+10,128	Up	-$175	05-25 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 18:15 UTC	2	$165	105	104	+2	Up	+$42	03-01 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	3	$165	126	126	+0	Up	+$65	05-25 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$150	101	101	+0	Down	+$50	05-24 16:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 13:45 UTC	1	$150	322	0	+322	Up	+$172	03-01 13:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 11:00 UTC	2	$149	102	100	+2	Up	+$51	03-01 11:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 11:45 UTC	2	$141	93	91	+1	Up	+$43	03-01 12:00
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	1	$140	500	0	+500	No	-$140	01-24 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	3	$126	77	77	+0	Up	+$26	05-24 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$125	81	81	+0	Up	+$25	05-24 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	5	$125	198	0	+198	Up	-$125	05-25 14:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$124	75	75	+0	Up	+$24	05-24 16:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 15:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	741	1¢	$7	0x08ead2…
05-25 14:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x39075c…
05-25 14:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x20c2fe…
05-25 14:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xf520c4…
05-25 14:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x386bbc…
05-25 14:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xf306bc…
05-25 14:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe91a4a…
05-25 14:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3fc553…
05-25 14:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x0f1c6b…
05-25 14:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3a81dd…
05-25 14:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	123	99¢	$122	0xf2dd1a…
05-25 14:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x645af5…
05-25 14:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x24964f…
05-25 14:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x45de3d…
05-25 14:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0xea0512…
05-25 14:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	31	82¢	$25	0xf6f14c…
05-25 14:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xdd6745…
05-25 14:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x363df7…
05-25 14:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x6ab240…
05-25 14:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x59382d…
05-25 14:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x128211…
05-25 14:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xd0abfe…
05-25 14:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xe78b97…
05-25 14:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x775dfc…
05-25 14:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x636d48…
05-25 14:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x92f480…
05-25 14:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x003cf2…
05-25 14:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	53	48¢	$25	0x3b4339…
05-25 14:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x29e6d7…
05-25 14:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	182	99¢	$181	0xca925f…
05-25 14:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xf616a4…
05-25 14:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0x543368…
05-25 14:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	62	41¢	$25	0x3a3072…
05-25 14:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x548540…
05-25 14:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xecbf7f…
05-25 14:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x1b8904…
05-25 14:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x908145…
05-25 14:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	201	99¢	$199	0x208113…
05-25 14:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x389cdd…
05-25 14:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x93f596…
05-25 14:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x7be756…
05-25 13:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xb43ce0…
05-25 13:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xc154a2…
05-25 13:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xa74318…
05-25 13:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x7a1bd6…
05-25 13:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x49989b…
05-25 13:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xe98fda…
05-25 13:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xf1a756…
05-25 13:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x7f0ddf…
05-25 13:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	126	91¢	$115	0x3ffb8d…
05-25 13:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xb20e43…
05-25 13:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xb46f7f…
05-25 13:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xa598bc…
05-25 13:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x5773a5…
05-25 13:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xe15d23…
05-25 13:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xab6736…
05-25 13:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xe831b2…
05-25 13:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0x607200…
05-25 13:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x6bbecc…
05-25 13:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xde3c65…
05-25 13:20:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0x5c2f33…
05-25 13:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x067a71…
05-25 13:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xdc3502…
05-25 13:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xc69576…
05-25 13:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	167	99¢	$165	0x8a562c…
05-25 13:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x295c68…
05-25 13:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x234a76…
05-25 13:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x018995…
05-25 13:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0x3a5e13…
05-25 13:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xfa0952…
05-25 13:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xde3cbf…
05-25 13:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x31fecd…
05-25 13:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xaab679…
05-25 13:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x80f137…
05-25 12:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x7bdb40…
05-24 17:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x02818e…
05-24 17:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x758867…
05-24 17:10:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x08ab84…
05-24 17:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xa0fd96…
05-24 17:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x6e6239…
05-24 17:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x891e9e…
05-24 17:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x251266…
05-24 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x570686…
05-24 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x43a06f…
05-24 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x046d84…
05-24 16:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xb92f7d…
05-24 16:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xfffba7…
05-24 16:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	77	99¢	$76	0xa67485…
05-24 16:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xeb5dfd…
05-24 16:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x3a3cf1…
05-24 16:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0xb7cf2f…
05-24 16:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x8ee684…
05-24 16:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x44d2d8…
05-24 16:45:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	81	94¢	$75	0x4adc5d…
05-24 16:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xacf1d7…
05-24 16:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x2dae40…
05-24 16:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x7e71c8…
05-24 16:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xef233a…
05-24 16:35:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xe8f2db…
05-24 16:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xb00a52…