Fickle-Association — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$135.9K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved

697

Trades

5,923

lifetime

Volume

$2.07M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$349

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 10-28 17:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 199 days

Categories

Other

77% 39% -$85,876

Sports

23% 37% -$50,019

Politics

0% 50% +$38

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?	3	$94.8K	58,765	58,765	+0	No	+$22,593	05-15 21:27
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?	44	$37.4K	24,777	24,777	+0	No	+$12,083	05-13 20:34
epl bri liv 2026 03 21 liv	3	$35.5K	22,800	22,800	+0	No	+$10,009	03-21 15:13
Will Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	3	$26.7K	21,180	21,180	+0	Yes	+$15,652	08-16 17:20
epl ars bou 2026 04 11 ars	4	$23.5K	17,782	17,530	+253	No	+$11,769	04-11 14:02
epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	5	$22.1K	16,710	16,710	+0	No	+$11,299	03-04 22:49
uel por1 not 2026 04 09 por1	33	$21.9K	14,092	13,992	+100	No	+$6,186	04-09 23:53
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?	4	$21.2K	13,681	13,681	+0	No	+$6,097	05-09 16:35
sea int ata 2026 03 14 int	2	$17.2K	12,627	12,627	+0	No	+$8,068	03-14 17:31
uel scb bet1 2026 04 08 scb	3	$16.8K	10,469	10,409	+60	No	+$4,019	04-08 21:25
Knicks vs. 76ers	59	$15.5K	27,773	0	+27,773	Knicks	-$8,526	05-08 22:40
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-07?	4	$14.6K	22,430	0	+22,430	Yes	-$14,579	09-07 18:35
fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 btts	24	$14.4K	29,723	0	+29,723	No	+$15,325	06-19 00:17
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	56	$14.2K	30,315	0	+30,315	Yes	-$14,248	07-15 19:04
epl wol liv 2026 03 03 liv	3	$13.8K	10,226	10,226	+0	No	+$6,636	03-03 23:21
bun b04 aug 2026 04 18 b04	4	$13.7K	10,700	10,475	+225	No	+$7,479	04-18 16:29
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	8	$13.5K	35,731	0	+35,731	Yes	-$13,480	07-11 20:01
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?	43	$13.0K	25,256	0	+25,256	Yes	-$12,753	04-30 18:24
Will Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?	4	$11.4K	6,804	6,804	+0	No	+$2,171	05-03 17:08
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	104	$11.3K	24,925	0	+24,925	Yes	-$11,329	06-30 00:28
efa sot ars 2026 04 04 ars	10	$11.2K	8,655	8,655	+0	No	+$6,050	04-04 23:57
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-08?	2	$11.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$9,000	09-08 18:17
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	168	$10.7K	25,915	0	+25,915	Yes	-$10,719	07-01 18:45
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs	3	$10.6K	7,384	7,384	+0	All Gamers	+$4,128	05-05 15:39
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts	118	$10.2K	24,379	246	+24,133	Yes	-$10,042	06-30 17:06
sea cre fio 2026 03 16 fio	3	$10.1K	20,260	0	+20,260	Yes	-$10,130	03-16 18:48
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	1	$10.1K	15,790	0	+15,790	No	+$5,684	07-01 01:11
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02?	44	$10.0K	7,010	7,010	+0	No	+$3,989	05-02 17:31
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	1	$10.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$10,000	09-06 12:50
UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	5	$9.8K	20,832	0	+20,832	Abus Magomedov	-$9,791	10-24 16:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 17:15:16	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	160	46¢	$74	0x4390d7…
10-28 17:15:05	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x9c7276…
10-28 17:15:05	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x3d1d65…
10-28 17:15:04	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	72	46¢	$33	0xc83be4…
10-28 17:15:01	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	233	47¢	$109	0xa149a3…
10-28 17:15:01	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x29a7ee…
10-28 17:14:59	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	349	48¢	$167	0x8b49d1…
10-28 17:14:58	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xeacf88…
10-28 11:55:07	Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)	Team Nemesis	BUY	3,194	46¢	$1,469	0x4a4475…
10-28 11:50:10	Game Spread: Jakub Mensik (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)	Jakub Mensik	BUY	5,294	45¢	$2,383	0xb93f91…
10-28 01:42:56	Trail Blazers vs. Lakers	Trail Blazers	BUY	9,282	46¢	$4,270	0xe8c71a…
10-28 00:32:38	Spread: Spurs (-15.5)	Kings	BUY	336	39¢	$130	0x886bed…
10-27 23:50:42	Spread: Spurs (-15.5)	Kings	BUY	46	39¢	$18	0xe39d7a…
10-27 23:48:21	Spread: Spurs (-15.5)	Kings	BUY	177	39¢	$69	0x215ce1…
10-27 22:40:33	Spread: Spurs (-17.5)	Kings	BUY	2,862	45¢	$1,288	0xbc3358…
10-27 22:39:05	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	Knicks	BUY	38	30¢	$11	0xa95327…
10-27 22:38:02	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	Knicks	BUY	935	29¢	$271	0x65465b…
10-27 22:35:15	Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0xcad711…
10-27 22:34:14	Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa618d9…
10-27 22:34:11	Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	873	60¢	$524	0x458f1a…
10-27 22:34:09	Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	813	60¢	$488	0x4c23e2…
10-27 22:30:29	Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	4,668	56¢	$2,614	0x2b94fb…
10-27 22:17:00	Spread: Spurs (-16.5)	Kings	BUY	3,400	42¢	$1,428	0xeca2d6…
10-27 22:15:21	Spread: Spurs (-15.5)	Kings	BUY	1,886	39¢	$736	0xcb88ea…
10-27 15:02:42	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	397	51¢	$202	0x6ab3ea…
10-27 15:01:42	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0xc042d7…
10-27 15:01:33	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	359	51¢	$183	0xb48625…
10-27 15:01:29	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	fnatic	BUY	519	51¢	$265	0x53d67c…
10-27 14:58:06	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano: O/U 164.5	Under	BUY	5,424	45¢	$2,441	0xa1767d…
10-27 14:55:24	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano: O/U 164.5	Under	BUY	130	45¢	$58	0x017e0a…
10-27 14:51:20	Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano: O/U 164.5	Under	BUY	196	44¢	$86	0xa5f42f…
10-27 00:41:50	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	2,869	46¢	$1,320	0x454f44…
10-27 00:41:38	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x904c19…
10-27 00:41:35	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	56	46¢	$26	0xb4c71e…
10-27 00:41:35	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	214	46¢	$98	0xa94712…
10-27 00:41:35	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	856	46¢	$394	0x717548…
10-27 00:00:38	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	2,481	51¢	$1,265	0x2cf7b8…
10-27 00:00:27	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	1,697	51¢	$865	0x222f3a…
10-26 22:32:48	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	260	47¢	$122	0x00422c…
10-26 22:32:47	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	371	47¢	$175	0xafccc1…
10-26 22:32:47	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	270	47¢	$127	0x9b83a1…
10-26 22:32:47	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0x38ba74…
10-26 22:30:41	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x138baa…
10-26 22:23:32	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	420	47¢	$197	0x493573…
10-26 21:43:15	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	209	47¢	$98	0xe1efee…
10-26 21:09:38	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	684	47¢	$321	0x544aa2…
10-26 21:08:11	Spread: Pacers (-3.5)	Bucks	BUY	830	47¢	$390	0x150449…
10-25 23:25:20	Spread: Pistons (-1.5)	76ers	BUY	566	48¢	$272	0xb386e5…
10-25 23:23:11	Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	3,508	42¢	$1,473	0x92a64a…
10-25 23:22:06	Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	5,340	45¢	$2,403	0x680119…
10-25 22:33:51	Packers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5	Over	BUY	2,775	45¢	$1,249	0x573ab3…
10-25 22:28:03	Spread: Lions (-5.5)	Lions	BUY	2,800	49¢	$1,372	0x5a82bb…
10-25 22:22:26	Spread: Lions (-2.5)	Packers	BUY	3,066	39¢	$1,196	0x5ae3d0…
10-25 22:21:47	Spread: Lions (-2.5)	Packers	BUY	490	38¢	$186	0x3b08a6…
10-24 19:16:54	Spread: Iowa (-5.5)	Minnesota	BUY	45	42¢	$19	0xdafce8…
10-24 19:15:53	Spread: Iowa (-5.5)	Minnesota	BUY	1,267	41¢	$520	0x3a565c…
10-24 19:14:02	Spread: Iowa (-5.5)	Minnesota	BUY	3,501	41¢	$1,435	0xe40991…
10-24 19:08:32	Spread: Iowa (-6.5)	Minnesota	BUY	1,075	44¢	$473	0xb72fb7…
10-24 19:07:05	Spread: Iowa (-6.5)	Minnesota	BUY	746	43¢	$321	0xf785e4…
10-24 19:06:26	Spread: Iowa (-6.5)	Minnesota	BUY	4,382	43¢	$1,884	0x419614…
10-24 19:04:53	Spread: UCLA (-18.5)	UCLA	BUY	2,833	42¢	$1,190	0x78ef53…
10-24 19:03:06	Spread: UCLA (-18.5)	UCLA	BUY	4,094	42¢	$1,719	0x0177f1…
10-24 16:45:59	UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Cam Rowston	BUY	254	47¢	$119	0xcc8079…
10-24 16:45:35	UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Cam Rowston	BUY	47	47¢	$22	0xc3cc8c…
10-24 16:45:24	UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Cam Rowston	BUY	11,231	47¢	$5,279	0xd7275d…
10-24 16:29:45	UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Cam Rowston	BUY	226	47¢	$106	0x58f614…
10-24 16:27:26	UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)	Cam Rowston	BUY	9,074	47¢	$4,265	0x23cb36…
10-24 16:20:09	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x927489…
10-24 16:20:09	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x49718f…
10-24 16:20:09	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	322	50¢	$161	0x30b717…
10-24 16:19:42	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xce7566…
10-24 16:15:26	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	411	50¢	$206	0x251c78…
10-24 16:12:44	UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Nurullo Aliev	BUY	5,940	50¢	$2,970	0x19ad26…
10-24 14:12:45	Spread: Indiana (-6.5)	Michigan	BUY	1,790	44¢	$788	0x436cd4…
10-24 14:08:06	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	2,970	13¢	$386	0x2d153f…
10-24 03:26:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	90	42¢	$38	0xcb6a17…
10-24 03:26:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x5cb1f4…
10-24 03:25:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x2eaed8…
10-21 23:27:23	Bucks vs. Wizards	Bucks	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb6719a…
10-21 23:27:23	Bucks vs. Wizards	Bucks	BUY	742	39¢	$289	0x997225…
10-21 23:27:23	Bucks vs. Wizards	Bucks	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x36930d…
10-21 23:27:23	Bucks vs. Wizards	Bucks	BUY	1,799	39¢	$701	0x29a868…
10-21 23:00:51	Spread: Pacers (-5.5)	Pacers	BUY	2,441	42¢	$1,025	0x040a57…
10-21 22:58:57	Timberwolves vs. Heat	Timberwolves	BUY	2,174	46¢	$1,000	0xc2a1ae…
10-21 22:57:03	Jazz vs. Grizzlies	Jazz	BUY	2,246	45¢	$1,011	0x6869a2…
10-21 21:46:20	Bucks vs. Wizards	Wizards	BUY	12,750	61¢	$7,778	0x87eb75…
10-21 21:37:00	Warriors vs. Lakers	Warriors	BUY	44	33¢	$15	0x859015…
10-21 21:20:26	Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5	Over	BUY	816	51¢	$416	0x2c4ac9…
10-21 21:19:18	Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5	Over	BUY	1,849	44¢	$814	0x98ad6c…
10-21 18:54:35	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	6,287	20¢	$1,257	0x26baed…
10-21 17:26:53	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	SELL	577	14¢	$81	0xe80b05…
10-21 17:25:24	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	SELL	923	14¢	$129	0xf264bf…
10-21 17:05:26	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	275	38¢	$105	0x12c931…
10-21 17:05:20	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	22	38¢	$8	0x5442a7…
10-21 17:05:18	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	58	38¢	$22	0xf65ac1…
10-21 17:05:17	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x16f3c3…
10-21 17:05:14	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	58	38¢	$22	0x74f1d1…
10-21 17:04:17	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	1,082	38¢	$411	0xf58a0b…
10-21 17:04:08	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	4,610	62¢	$2,858	0x38915a…
10-21 16:58:50	Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0xf98eae…