Ornery-Hydrogen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.7%

Resolved

Trades

177

lifetime

Volume

$5.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 05-18 22:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

54% — —

Politics

37% 33% +$0

Crypto

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	7	$264	135	135	+0	open	—	04-25 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	9	$248	184	184	+0	open	—	05-10 17:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$182	94	94	+0	open	—	04-07 10:06
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	5	$178	92	92	+0	open	—	04-04 20:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	8	$175	150	150	+0	No	+$0	05-07 01:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$174	90	90	+0	open	—	05-11 14:26
will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	4	$165	88	88	+0	open	—	03-26 21:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$158	139	139	+0	No	$-0	05-10 03:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$149	76	76	+0	open	—	05-13 03:27
will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	2	$99	50	50	+0	open	—	03-23 23:47
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 440 459	2	$98	52	52	+0	open	—	03-20 15:07
will ethereum dip to 1400 in march 2026	2	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	03-23 09:26
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1200 1239	2	$97	49	49	+0	open	—	03-27 16:50
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	2	$96	49	49	+0	open	—	03-30 21:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$96	51	51	+0	open	—	04-20 13:45
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	2	$96	49	49	+0	open	—	03-28 15:22
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$93	47	47	+0	open	—	04-26 09:46
will solana reach 120 in march 2026	2	$90	46	46	+0	open	—	03-25 14:43
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	2	$89	45	45	+0	open	—	03-23 13:24
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	2	$89	45	45	+0	open	—	03-19 09:11
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	2	$89	46	46	+0	open	—	03-25 07:46
will iran strike afghanistan in march	3	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	03-24 19:25
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	04-15 11:21
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	3	$88	47	47	+0	open	—	03-26 07:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$88	46	46	+0	open	—	03-31 04:53
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	3	$87	46	46	+0	open	—	04-21 05:05
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$87	45	45	+0	open	—	04-03 05:59
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$87	44	44	+0	open	—	03-31 20:14
will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$87	44	44	+0	open	—	04-09 18:34
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$87	46	46	+0	open	—	04-12 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xaf5468…
05-13 03:27:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0xa2043f…
05-13 03:26:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x6ad18b…
05-12 10:50:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	174	6¢	$10	0x09b91f…
05-12 09:28:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	76	5¢	$4	0x7d1ced…
05-12 09:28:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x642b9f…
05-12 06:08:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0x078083…
05-12 03:37:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x56f3a4…
05-11 14:26:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$45	0x67e153…
05-11 14:16:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0x4c8629…
05-10 17:02:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x48351c…
05-10 12:32:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x4648a6…
05-10 03:19:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x7fee31…
05-09 22:31:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xb543dd…
05-09 16:20:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0xb1881d…
05-09 14:37:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	4¢	$2	0xab7737…
05-09 12:47:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x383a7e…
05-09 08:03:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x67af1c…
05-08 21:17:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x532b1d…
05-08 18:27:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xa6365f…
05-08 13:07:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$2	0x512a0c…
05-08 10:18:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x31f6f8…
05-08 10:17:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xe6cf04…
05-08 06:42:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x65f7b2…
05-08 02:52:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x658a48…
05-07 01:10:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x79f22c…
05-06 22:44:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	6¢	$3	0xe48cae…
05-06 21:09:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	5¢	$3	0x8ea028…
05-06 21:09:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x2b361a…
05-06 15:34:08	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	154	1¢	$2	0x2aa2e0…
05-06 12:47:20	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0x24cc0a…
05-05 15:28:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0xed0c43…
05-05 11:45:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x1f805e…
05-04 14:14:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0x09b4b3…
05-04 12:51:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x7d1292…
05-03 13:09:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0xcc98d4…
05-03 09:40:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x5ed20f…
04-30 12:14:06	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xf4ac54…
04-30 08:09:08	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x449270…
04-29 17:24:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0xc773fe…
04-29 17:24:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	2¢	$3	0x5b1a9a…
04-29 15:51:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	2¢	$2	0xa7fb59…
04-29 15:51:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	2¢	$2	0x378c75…
04-29 12:46:14	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x712912…
04-29 12:46:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x51fb44…
04-29 10:08:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0xf40427…
04-28 02:04:24	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xc3ff1b…
04-27 22:06:08	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$40	0x10ecdd…
04-27 18:44:42	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xaa0302…
04-27 18:44:42	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0xa79265…
04-27 15:30:32	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x010818…
04-27 10:49:06	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xefa32b…
04-26 21:34:14	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	146	1¢	$1	0x8a2474…
04-26 19:21:24	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	54	1¢	$1	0x40156d…
04-26 19:21:24	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x17717d…
04-26 09:46:06	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0xf55fa9…
04-26 07:54:46	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xef564f…
04-25 03:05:38	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x92943a…
04-24 22:22:12	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xcf032b…
04-24 11:47:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	46	92¢	$42	0xf8e2ee…
04-24 07:18:22	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0xcf2522…
04-24 03:17:52	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x831753…
04-24 00:22:44	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xc4c69d…
04-23 23:59:12	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0xc27c17…
04-23 21:30:26	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x92f43a…
04-22 20:22:30	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xe434f7…
04-22 18:23:44	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xef4468…
04-21 12:06:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xb31761…
04-21 12:06:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	SELL	42	92¢	$39	0x341b48…
04-21 07:20:54	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xafd526…
04-21 05:05:16	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x871bee…
04-21 05:05:16	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0x57df89…
04-21 00:51:50	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0x295a00…
04-20 13:45:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x80138a…
04-20 13:45:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x194223…
04-20 12:25:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0x40d279…
04-20 07:04:12	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xe7f18c…
04-20 07:04:12	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x693e28…
04-20 01:56:50	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0x41baf9…
04-18 12:30:50	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xa4d3e7…
04-18 12:30:50	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0x3e5c6a…
04-18 10:48:44	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$3	0x108f64…
04-15 11:21:52	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x42c220…
04-15 07:11:52	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xf340aa…
04-12 17:08:53	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	42	92¢	$39	0xdd3459…
04-12 12:45:25	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x29e63c…
04-12 09:07:05	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	46	94¢	$43	0x90be4a…
04-12 07:08:17	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0xe509b6…
04-11 22:17:49	will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xd90c93…
04-11 14:47:51	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	SELL	150	3¢	$5	0xe61d47…
04-11 12:15:01	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	BUY	150	3¢	$5	0x229a95…
04-11 00:08:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	44	97¢	$43	0x7e8d5f…
04-10 21:09:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x23fc99…
04-10 20:54:23	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x9870f4…
04-10 19:07:37	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaf03f0…
04-09 18:34:23	will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x5f029e…
04-09 11:52:05	will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x6548dd…
04-08 08:18:11	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	183	4¢	$7	0xbda621…
04-08 06:06:59	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x225757…
04-08 06:06:59	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	120	4¢	$5	0x209901…