Our-Culvert — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$371

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.5%

Resolved

321

Trades

1,008

lifetime

Volume

$91.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$91

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-29 12:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 90% +$412

Other

32% 90% -$42

Politics

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?	27	$5.3K	2,766	2,830	-64	No	+$117	01-21 18:27
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,428	1,150	+278	No	+$12	06-30 04:42
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?	7	$1.8K	886	886	+0	Yes	+$17	01-22 01:50
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?	18	$1.7K	1,020	960	+60	No	+$58	01-20 15:45
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$1.4K	826	556	+270	Yes	+$14	03-31 21:26
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?	18	$1.1K	555	555	+0	No	+$31	04-16 18:24
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?	8	$990	499	499	+0	No	+$7	04-30 20:26
ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?	8	$970	488	488	+0	No	+$4	01-22 20:58
will arch network launch a token by december 31 2026	10	$956	651	569	+82	open	—	10-24 03:31
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	4	$852	427	427	+0	Yes	+$1	04-27 16:48
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	3	$816	411	411	+0	Yes	+$3	04-13 18:20
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03?	4	$802	405	405	+0	Yes	+$6	01-26 10:53
bitcoin up or down february 1 10pm et	8	$795	437	437	+0	Down	-$61	02-02 03:59
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$786	408	408	+0	Yes	-$13	04-22 20:01
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?	8	$760	409	409	+0	No	+$27	01-20 20:12
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?	7	$752	400	400	+0	No	+$27	01-18 15:00
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?	4	$744	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$432	06-14 14:37
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on May 20?	1	$700	701	0	+701	No	+$1	05-20 19:38
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$700	719	0	+719	No	+$19	05-26 19:57
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?	7	$688	653	653	+0	No	-$4	05-18 09:35
Mezo FDV above $600M one day after launch?	2	$679	341	341	+0	No	+$2	04-02 16:41
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	11	$631	318	318	+0	No	+$3	03-31 19:49
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$627	427	213	+214	Yes	+$12	04-14 19:32
over 60m committed to the laso finance public sale	7	$620	397	243	+154	No	+$3	07-04 16:54
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	7	$620	312	312	+0	No	+$3	04-01 19:59
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?	4	$609	310	310	+0	No	+$9	01-19 22:09
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$606	616	0	+616	No	+$10	05-27 19:31
bitcoin up or down january 24 7am et	2	$603	303	303	+0	Down	+$3	01-24 13:03
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?	2	$600	301	301	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 03:48
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$600	601	0	+601	No	+$1	05-21 18:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 04:08:25	Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	BUY	184	97¢	$178	0x6a287d…
10-29 12:50:01	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	SELL	110	65¢	$71	0xd70e6e…
10-25 04:08:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xfd2e8d…
10-24 03:31:32	Will Arch Network launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x7453cb…
10-24 03:30:54	Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	78¢	$59	0xc8a98a…
10-22 21:46:05	Axis Robotics FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x23c532…
10-22 21:08:45	Axis Robotics FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x20f0ef…
10-21 09:38:15	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd71b0c…
10-19 06:54:44	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xcecc7b…
10-17 19:50:42	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3ace4c…
10-17 13:23:39	Will TownSquare launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0xb7cb81…
10-01 14:21:17	Umia listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	122	96¢	$118	0x53723a…
10-01 08:46:09	Umia listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x703e4f…
10-01 08:45:59	Umia listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	137	95¢	$130	0xcc3c96…
10-01 06:54:48	Umia listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	230	94¢	$217	0xffc97f…
09-29 18:53:59	Umia listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	144	95¢	$136	0xef3a62…
09-29 13:46:54	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x686f58…
09-29 13:38:39	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x777332…
09-29 13:35:33	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x56fcef…
09-29 13:35:27	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x4aa3c5…
09-29 13:11:36	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0xdbafef…
09-29 13:05:14	over 5m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x801017…
09-29 09:22:23	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xfe7c61…
09-29 06:57:12	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xb73f14…
09-24 12:32:13	Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x308eb9…
09-24 12:32:03	Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0xdb8256…
09-24 08:09:24	Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xd4c857…
09-21 02:59:37	Linera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?	No	SELL	28	84¢	$24	0xfeec97…
09-20 04:29:58	Will TownSquare launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x6004d5…
09-19 15:41:48	Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	110	98¢	$107	0x16f70a…
09-18 21:49:18	Linera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	28	66¢	$19	0x6cb162…
09-17 18:31:57	Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x1b08d1…
09-17 13:51:31	Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	No	BUY	124	96¢	$120	0xb53fca…
09-17 10:22:22	Will Ritual launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x28e8d1…
09-15 18:23:09	Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xee9fcd…
09-15 18:21:54	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0xedb308…
09-14 10:15:27	Will Ritual launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xda0c82…
09-10 16:29:42	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	286	93¢	$266	0x85d2b2…
09-08 13:30:55	Over $2M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	98	96¢	$94	0x512cdf…
09-08 12:04:48	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xbb5cc8…
09-07 17:01:13	Over $2M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	80	89¢	$71	0x738d79…
09-07 16:41:18	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0x4f6c92…
09-07 16:40:37	Over $20M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x8e414e…
09-07 07:44:25	Over $30M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0x9b0f77…
09-06 12:08:28	Over $4M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	77	91¢	$70	0x91b71c…
09-05 09:53:04	Over $8M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x9dd3c2…
09-05 09:47:01	Over $10M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0xb96c13…
09-04 19:20:34	Over $200M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x79c81e…
09-03 15:56:57	Over $15M committed to the Ethos public sale?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4d40da…
09-02 11:32:19	Over $30M committed to the Ethos public sale?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x67bccc…
09-02 11:29:06	Over $200M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd1dc87…
09-02 07:21:36	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x29e0fb…
09-02 07:15:16	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0xd46f45…
09-02 07:14:57	Will Vest launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0x0d33e5…
09-02 07:06:46	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0x47a71f…
09-02 07:05:43	Over $200M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	65	99¢	$65	0x00bfa5…
09-02 05:08:27	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x352477…
09-01 18:41:57	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x249d25…
09-01 18:41:15	Over $15M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0x0d0baf…
09-01 18:32:00	Over $30M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0xb89dd7…
09-01 15:58:03	Over $8M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0xf9e30d…
09-01 15:17:46	Over $10M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x0d1b99…
09-01 15:16:55	Over $20M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x269ca5…
09-01 13:04:06	Over $30M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x7f1fab…
09-01 09:20:04	Over $8M committed to the Linera public sale?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x449892…
09-01 04:10:06	over 200m committed to the linera public sale	No	BUY	245	98¢	$240	0x60561c…
09-01 04:09:03	Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	251	98¢	$246	0xad6cd6…
08-27 12:55:37	over 1point75m committed to the multipli public sale	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x53d5d8…
08-27 12:51:19	over 1point75m committed to the multipli public sale	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x2982ae…
08-27 12:37:37	Over $2M committed to the Multipli public sale?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8a99ea…
08-21 18:37:06	cambria listed on bybit within 30 days of tge	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x56ccd6…
08-21 18:34:16	Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x39c6a3…
08-21 18:29:54	Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4ddbe7…
08-20 20:08:06	extended listed on okx within 30 days of tge	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x50d204…
08-20 19:45:15	cambria listed on bybit within 30 days of tge	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x2937f7…
08-20 19:41:46	extended listed on okx within 30 days of tge	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x1f05b0…
07-31 15:35:44	will townsquare launch a token by july 31 2026 20260720193329908	No	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0x52c511…
07-25 16:57:04	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	105	7¢	$7	0x61b29f…
07-25 16:23:55	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0xdf6583…
07-25 16:09:07	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x21e34b…
07-24 17:31:03	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0xd76dec…
07-24 09:06:43	will cambria launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	156	96¢	$150	0x48b961…
07-22 09:34:01	ripcars fdv above 15m one day after launch 20260721182210413	No	SELL	32	86¢	$27	0x0687d8…
07-22 08:40:15	ripcars fdv above 15m one day after launch 20260721182210413	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0xb4ddd9…
07-22 08:39:12	ripcars fdv above 15m one day after launch 20260721182210413	No	SELL	21	86¢	$18	0xcd58ec…
07-22 08:39:10	ripcars fdv above 15m one day after launch 20260721182210413	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x4560fd…
07-22 06:27:01	ripcars fdv above 15m one day after launch 20260721182210413	No	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0xcd594c…
07-22 05:27:31	over 25m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129609 887	Yes	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x85e925…
07-22 04:07:52	over 22pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x6383ce…
07-21 17:08:16	over 8m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129604	Yes	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0x0e0e67…
07-21 17:07:40	over 6m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129602	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x189f40…
07-21 17:07:12	over 7m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129603	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x4a002c…
07-21 17:06:46	over 250k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129594	Yes	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x842e8e…
07-21 17:06:28	over 7m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129603	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x4abc90…
07-21 17:05:37	over 7m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129603	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x67e938…
07-21 17:05:21	over 250k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129594	Yes	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0xbd2e2c…
07-21 12:53:33	Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?	Yes	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0x4a0742…
07-21 09:29:57	over 250k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129594	Yes	BUY	240	97¢	$233	0x575143…
07-21 08:37:51	over 3m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129599	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x1a4496…
07-21 08:00:27	over 3m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129599	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xdd0e39…