Scientific-Leading — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

316

lifetime

Volume

$1.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 06-15 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

61% 0% $-9

Other

34% 0% $-13

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$76	70	70	+0	open	—	04-10 11:47
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	9	$76	100	100	+0	open	—	03-27 17:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$65	70	70	+0	open	—	06-14 22:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$47	550	50	+500	open	—	06-02 02:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$36	240	120	+120	open	—	05-06 10:56
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	2	$33	30	30	+0	open	—	04-24 17:51
highest temperature in paris on march 19 2026 17c	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	03-19 15:56
will iran strike oman again in march	2	$21	60	30	+30	open	—	03-28 11:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$16	350	0	+350	open	—	06-03 22:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$14	1,913	0	+1,913	open	—	04-30 20:28
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	6	$14	362	35	+327	open	—	04-30 17:49
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 21:47
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-29 18:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	1	$11	90	0	+90	open	—	03-18 03:04
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 18 2026	2	$10	400	0	+400	open	—	03-18 02:28
ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 mnc1	2	$10	70	70	+0	open	—	03-17 21:53
highest temperature in london on march 20 2026 13c	1	$8	37	0	+37	open	—	03-20 09:57
military action against iran ends on march 30 2026	35	$8	1,407	0	+1,407	open	—	03-30 01:58
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 spread away 1pt5	1	$8	120	0	+120	open	—	03-18 18:04
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	2	$8	162	0	+162	open	—	03-29 11:17
will iran strike lebanon in march	1	$8	50	0	+50	open	—	03-24 17:07
ucl liv1 gal 2026 03 18 gal	1	$8	80	0	+80	open	—	03-18 00:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$8	188	0	+188	open	—	03-27 20:15
ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	1	$8	89	0	+89	open	—	03-17 19:47
highest temperature in nyc on march 18 2026 34 35f	1	$8	40	0	+40	open	—	03-18 19:12
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$8	545	0	+545	open	—	04-13 10:36
israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	2	$7	130	0	+130	open	—	06-05 17:09
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	1	$7	45	0	+45	open	—	03-24 18:02
highest temperature in dallas on march 28 2026 58 59f	3	$7	60	0	+60	open	—	03-28 23:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$7	160	0	+160	open	—	04-29 13:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 16:39:42	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	No	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x002094…
06-15 01:19:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	192	1¢	$2	0x069e32…
06-14 22:57:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	67	80¢	$54	0x18b888…
06-14 22:57:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0xa6042f…
06-05 17:26:19	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	79	2¢	$1	0xcfa612…
06-05 17:09:54	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x70b638…
06-05 09:23:49	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0x8284f4…
06-04 18:55:16	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x0e06f3…
06-04 06:08:01	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x34b5b5…
06-04 06:07:45	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x8a1d4c…
06-04 06:07:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x8cea99…
06-04 06:02:15	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x6ae9f1…
06-04 03:59:52	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xef0022…
06-04 00:55:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$2	0x6041ca…
06-04 00:02:33	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x287099…
06-03 22:26:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x1e3cb8…
06-03 22:12:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x22bbc8…
06-03 22:09:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x91b9b0…
06-03 10:17:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xd22e95…
06-03 09:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xbf59d0…
06-02 21:15:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	6¢	$5	0xa9eeed…
06-02 10:48:17	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x0ef47c…
06-02 10:29:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x025032…
06-02 04:54:02	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	7¢	$5	0x4a1456…
06-02 02:41:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xbfafef…
06-02 02:39:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xf11db1…
06-02 02:38:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x2a87f4…
06-01 12:11:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xc06d38…
06-01 11:29:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x632d37…
06-01 11:28:01	Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x76d54a…
06-01 10:53:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0xc0b5c8…
06-01 10:52:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xdbd166…
06-01 10:32:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	6¢	$4	0x25648f…
06-01 02:54:48	Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x483ce3…
05-31 19:05:47	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x869398…
05-31 19:05:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd9b92e…
05-31 19:05:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xb93308…
05-31 19:05:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x7b6bec…
05-31 19:05:43	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x6aa086…
05-31 19:05:43	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x57bfed…
05-31 19:05:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xc55ccb…
05-31 19:05:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x58c3f3…
05-31 19:05:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x4c4bf9…
05-31 19:05:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x4ae705…
05-31 19:05:40	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa9993b…
05-31 19:05:38	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x8e8668…
05-31 18:06:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0xe54047…
05-31 17:42:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$2	0xafd259…
05-31 17:37:31	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xdef4ee…
05-31 17:36:30	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd4e402…
05-31 16:53:18	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xefbec9…
05-31 16:40:16	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x8b19a2…
05-31 16:31:34	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$2	0x107281…
05-29 21:30:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	212	1¢	$1	0x6036e0…
05-29 21:23:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc38953…
05-29 21:23:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x050c89…
05-29 21:17:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x5b0d2b…
05-28 20:27:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x58f8e8…
05-28 04:06:17	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x0e7ed2…
05-28 03:39:53	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0746a5…
05-27 21:27:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$1	0x5cb3b1…
05-08 12:38:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x0b13d2…
05-07 19:44:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$2	0xf09bb9…
05-07 06:24:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0x8de09a…
05-07 06:03:41	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0xa55ae2…
05-07 05:55:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x6cb960…
05-07 05:48:27	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	1¢	$1	0x7666cb…
05-07 05:36:02	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	1¢	$1	0xfd5081…
05-06 20:24:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x2cd9d8…
05-06 16:09:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x6ac556…
05-06 15:47:17	Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xa0a984…
05-06 12:12:24	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0x3fc6f2…
05-06 12:07:26	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xab3257…
05-06 11:45:04	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd3e499…
05-06 11:45:02	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x589cd9…
05-06 10:56:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	20¢	$24	0xcb3e71…
05-06 10:34:26	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x426df2…
05-05 18:34:50	Will Trump say "Midterm" this week?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xd22f0a…
05-05 18:21:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x2afa5c…
05-05 12:14:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xf9cc0b…
05-05 02:55:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xa548de…
05-05 02:52:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x23df98…
05-05 02:50:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xf2fc3b…
05-05 02:47:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xbd10ae…
05-04 17:02:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1aa243…
05-04 17:02:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$2	0x389d20…
05-01 17:15:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x21efc3…
05-01 14:44:20	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	34	7¢	$2	0x149726…
04-30 20:28:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x73ec6c…
04-30 20:28:26	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x8dbc77…
04-30 17:49:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	SELL	33	18¢	$6	0xfb2e7a…
04-30 00:37:04	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	140	2¢	$2	0x253497…
04-29 21:35:06	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0xafcb3e…
04-29 18:53:54	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5b61c8…
04-29 13:17:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x662afa…
04-29 13:15:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb0daf0…
04-29 13:02:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6318ba…
04-29 12:49:24	The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office	The Devil Wears Prada 2	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0xf2adeb…
04-29 12:48:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	1¢	$2	0x051e90…
04-29 00:09:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x3eb4a4…