Second-Hand-Wrinkle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$133

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.2%

Resolved

112

Trades

350

lifetime

Volume

$3.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

53% 58% -$7

Politics

47% 55% -$134

Crypto

0% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 9 2026 785	19	$528	556	539	+17	Yes	+$51	01-07 13:49
trump invokes war powers against venezuela by january 31 134 583	2	$200	149	149	+0	Yes	-$2	01-05 08:03
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship in 2025 451 125 561	1	$180	0	180	-180	No	$0	01-01 09:30
russia strike on kyiv municipality by january 10 2026	7	$153	434	434	+0	Yes	-$143	01-05 08:01
russia strike on kyiv municipality by december 31 684	1	$119	0	121	-121	No	-$2	01-02 08:20
us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by january 31 2026	4	$87	103	103	+0	Yes	-$15	01-03 13:14
trump announces new drug boat strike by january 17 2026 855	4	$74	89	89	+0	No	+$4	01-07 11:28
will russia announce a christmas truce	4	$66	439	439	+0	No	+$4	01-06 06:40
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	4	$65	388	1,791	-1,404	No	+$56	01-05 14:17
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$58	40	40	+0	Yes	+$17	05-15 14:42
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	5	$57	55	55	+0	Yes	-$22	06-14 21:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$56	170	170	+0	No	+$22	01-13 17:41
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	3	$55	1,047	1,047	+0	No	-$5	01-14 18:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	6	$54	110	110	+0	No	+$4	05-21 17:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$52	30	30	-0	No	+$7	05-11 17:48
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$49	194	0	+194	No	-$49	01-14 18:16
will trump say fuck or fucking or fucked in january	2	$49	30	30	+0	No	-$2	01-04 19:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$48	30	30	+0	No	+$8	05-15 14:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$44	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	05-16 14:28
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	4	$43	52	52	+0	No	+$3	05-16 14:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	6	$43	24	24	+0	No	+$2	06-14 14:09
ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by january 15 2026	2	$41	24	24	+0	Yes	+$1	01-03 13:34
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	4	$41	83	83	+0	No	+$3	05-16 21:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	13	$37	40	40	+0	Yes	-$5	10-23 22:26
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	3	$36	114	114	+0	No	-$2	01-13 14:08
will ilhan omar resign by march 31	1	$27	0	561	-561	No	+$27	01-07 21:03
ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by january 17 2026	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	-$2	01-14 18:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$23	1,086	5	+1,081	No	-$23	05-25 14:15
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	7	$22	21	21	+0	No	$0	10-11 15:14
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	3	$21	22	22	+0	Yes	+$6	10-20 14:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 00:17:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0xa775ee…
10-26 00:16:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	45	13¢	$6	0x39d621…
10-26 00:00:57	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0x5983e5…
10-25 23:57:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	79	0¢	$0	0x7410d5…
10-25 23:52:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x3f86e9…
10-25 23:43:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x4b2f3a…
10-25 23:43:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x705b0c…
10-25 22:37:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xdd2493…
10-25 22:36:39	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0xc74304…
10-25 22:35:53	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0xf5aa81…
10-25 21:03:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x28ef1c…
10-25 21:03:30	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xcfacbe…
10-25 15:19:50	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc01bb6…
10-25 15:19:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xe06f7b…
10-24 09:53:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xdceebf…
10-24 09:52:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xf47a8a…
10-24 09:52:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x9ff0d4…
10-24 09:51:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x53120a…
10-23 22:27:44	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x84e4be…
10-23 22:27:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x4d5e3b…
10-23 22:26:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x50014e…
10-23 22:16:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x612eb5…
10-23 20:12:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd1b00d…
10-21 14:24:15	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$3	0x20cb55…
10-21 14:23:47	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc98327…
10-21 14:19:11	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x65210e…
10-20 18:36:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x14e332…
10-20 18:33:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x58f214…
10-20 17:36:53	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x2e7a08…
10-20 17:36:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc8cf30…
10-20 14:29:12	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xc634f2…
10-20 14:23:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x063774…
10-20 14:20:20	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xbddf3b…
10-20 14:19:35	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf5faee…
10-20 14:07:02	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0x747e15…
10-20 14:07:02	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x3227ff…
10-20 09:39:33	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	22	34¢	$7	0x6da697…
10-19 17:50:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0xd0f6f2…
10-19 17:16:24	Paris curfew by October 19?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xc1b157…
10-19 17:15:18	Paris curfew by October 19?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xef3626…
10-19 16:45:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x99fe9f…
10-19 16:40:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xf65475…
10-19 16:37:05	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x3efddd…
10-19 16:36:53	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0x16328a…
10-19 16:31:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x167c6c…
10-19 16:31:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x84c0c3…
10-19 16:29:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x8797ce…
10-19 15:59:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0x5c6988…
10-19 15:56:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x256191…
10-19 15:56:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xe98205…
10-19 15:48:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd96676…
10-19 15:40:23	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0x823322…
10-19 15:23:32	Paris curfew by October 19?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xda5d47…
10-19 14:17:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x05e351…
10-19 13:56:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?	No	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0xf4c8fb…
10-19 13:54:48	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?	No	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x632401…
10-19 12:37:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	42	9¢	$4	0x7ef780…
10-19 12:24:56	Paris curfew by October 19?	Yes	SELL	8	32¢	$3	0x1b9cf2…
10-19 12:15:29	Paris curfew by October 19?	Yes	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x672f88…
10-19 12:09:38	Paris curfew by October 19?	Yes	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0x96f98c…
10-18 21:17:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x14c0f3…
10-18 21:09:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x71025e…
10-18 21:09:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xbf4ae8…
10-18 21:01:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0xc18341…
10-18 21:01:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?	No	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0xb08631…
10-18 20:55:30	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0xd8e8db…
10-18 20:53:48	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	34	21¢	$7	0x6cd6ba…
10-18 17:06:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x2e10e9…
10-18 15:33:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x676cd8…
10-18 13:43:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x2852e6…
10-18 13:43:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xd56164…
10-17 22:46:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xb99850…
10-17 21:18:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0xbd1225…
10-17 16:36:33	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x1c6de1…
10-17 03:25:41	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x89c712…
10-16 19:28:29	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x968edb…
10-16 19:08:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd303b9…
10-16 18:56:35	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x216e4d…
10-16 18:56:16	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb0c574…
10-16 09:22:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xd5d3d5…
10-15 22:44:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xaf5adb…
10-15 22:44:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x4a69f1…
10-14 17:34:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd6e3a1…
10-14 17:33:49	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x87fd6e…
10-12 21:54:53	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x0e6c89…
10-12 21:47:30	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0x64d10e…
10-12 13:19:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x1775a6…
10-12 13:18:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xabcf23…
10-12 11:43:45	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xb59656…
10-11 15:56:51	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1533af…
10-11 15:56:10	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x015c38…
10-11 15:55:36	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x24664d…
10-11 15:51:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x1daa52…
10-11 15:50:54	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xcdcf09…
10-11 15:14:40	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	SELL	18	52¢	$9	0xd12db3…
10-11 12:46:03	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3e1b62…
10-11 12:39:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x29a11c…
10-11 11:23:14	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x1840e7…
10-11 11:21:08	Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x2f948b…
10-11 10:37:15	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xc4269f…