Second-Incision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$903

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

35.8%

Resolved

461

Trades

1,725

lifetime

Volume

$5.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-30 07:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Politics

39% 22% -$434

Other

34% 12% -$450

Crypto

27% 13% -$19

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 117 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	+300	$2	5¢	$15	+$13	10-29 20:57
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+480	$23	3¢	$14	-$9	10-30 07:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	+225	$3	1¢	$3	+$0	10-30 07:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	37	$480	3,842	3,842	+0	No	-$131	02-01 04:43
will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586	48	$438	9,287	7,050	+2,236	No	-$332	02-27 19:58
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	45	$309	3,318	2,318	+1,000	No	+$235	01-31 18:20
israel strikes iran by january 14 2026	15	$194	1,420	1,420	+0	No	-$5	01-15 01:31
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	22	$173	2,952	2,952	+0	No	+$16	02-06 12:36
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	18	$130	2,128	1,158	+970	No	-$11	07-25 19:07
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	22	$118	2,422	2,477	-55	No	-$35	02-07 17:49
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	19	$101	1,428	1,522	-94	No	-$12	01-23 22:28
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	4	$97	70	70	+0	Yes	+$23	07-04 18:49
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	27	$92	1,278	1,278	+0	No	+$10	09-29 18:49
israel strikes iran by january 13 2026	10	$89	1,025	676	+349	No	-$13	01-13 19:24
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland?	2	$88	83	83	+0	Yes	+$78	06-13 21:18
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	10	$69	418	418	+0	No	+$26	07-25 05:10
will the us next strike iran on february 9 2026 et	13	$69	1,485	1,285	+200	No	+$6	02-09 22:47
israel strikes iran by january 25 2026	19	$68	1,231	1,485	-253	No	+$16	01-26 02:29
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	16	$66	809	329	+480	open	—	10-30 07:54
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?	4	$65	73	73	+0	No	+$49	07-04 18:59
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	6	$61	227	0	+227	No	-$61	06-14 21:33
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	10	$59	620	394	+226	No	+$5	03-15 20:50
us evacuates baghdad embassy by january 31	12	$52	863	863	+0	No	-$7	01-30 19:00
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	14	$48	1,087	0	+1,087	No	-$48	01-16 21:37
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$41	100	52	+48	No	-$25	03-20 22:39
israel strikes iran by january 15 2026	6	$40	782	0	+782	No	-$40	01-15 21:11
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	8	$40	476	293	+183	No	-$20	08-09 18:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$38	442	39	+403	No	-$33	04-23 20:06
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	9	$38	543	205	+337	No	-$15	01-08 20:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 09:30 UTC	2	$37	36	36	+0	Up	+$33	03-15 09:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 10:00 UTC	3	$37	40	40	+0	Down	+$33	03-15 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	10	$36	138	38	+100	Down	+$24	09-18 15:59
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	19	$35	1,172	799	+373	No	+$13	02-04 21:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 07:54:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	225	1¢	$3	0xa83e05…
10-30 07:54:18	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	3¢	$3	0xad0190…
10-29 21:21:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x76a4a7…
10-29 21:21:36	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	3¢	$0	0xc8992e…
10-29 21:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x399335…
10-29 21:06:52	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0x0dab97…
10-29 21:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2d961b…
10-29 20:57:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x5a79d5…
10-29 20:05:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x4c03c7…
10-29 20:05:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xf35e52…
10-29 20:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x4d5e01…
10-29 20:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x92a4e6…
10-29 19:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0xae22fc…
10-29 19:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0xdd88dd…
10-29 19:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x041e37…
10-29 19:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xfa41bd…
10-29 19:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xea834f…
10-29 19:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xe2ea58…
10-29 19:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcce38f…
10-29 19:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xd5214a…
10-29 19:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x3fe5f3…
10-29 19:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xb26631…
10-29 19:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf418ad…
10-28 17:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x066c18…
10-28 04:26:49	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x175cff…
10-27 21:43:57	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf3c309…
10-27 21:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x99bb62…
10-27 21:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x9ce410…
10-27 21:23:32	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	3¢	$5	0x840cbf…
10-27 21:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe11dac…
10-27 21:17:03	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x0dd7fc…
10-27 21:16:51	Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	5¢	$3	0x504a34…
10-27 21:14:27	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5fa369…
10-27 21:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbac4d0…
10-27 21:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0xb82a60…
10-27 21:04:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x0fd167…
10-27 21:03:08	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	285	0¢	$1	0x8bc8ea…
10-27 16:33:02	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6ea844…
10-27 16:12:17	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x528096…
10-27 16:12:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x55769a…
10-27 13:51:53	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x6a119c…
10-24 19:10:20	Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	285	0¢	$1	0x04e30f…
10-24 19:08:11	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xafbcae…
10-24 11:30:11	Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x238a2d…
10-24 11:29:42	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x5737b8…
10-24 11:29:18	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbddf2b…
10-24 11:27:51	Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0xe2a5fd…
10-24 11:27:23	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x010f1b…
10-19 08:26:15	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	5¢	$3	0x5481cf…
10-15 19:56:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x2b642a…
10-15 19:56:13	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xc29f46…
10-15 19:55:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2336a5…
10-15 19:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x60f1a4…
10-15 19:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xc8d677…
10-15 19:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	25¢	$3	0xc558f1…
10-15 19:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xba1e11…
10-15 19:42:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3cfd66…
10-15 19:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x77da4d…
10-15 19:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xae74d7…
10-15 19:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x797137…
10-15 19:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xba7aec…
10-15 19:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb566d8…
10-15 19:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x7da717…
10-15 19:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x3e54f1…
10-15 19:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x87d59f…
10-14 20:31:51	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x847ed2…
10-14 20:00:34	iran full airspace closure by october 31 2026 copy	Yes	SELL	75	10¢	$8	0x837c3e…
10-14 14:57:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x22f583…
10-14 14:53:57	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0xb36d89…
10-12 17:36:20	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	6¢	$5	0xb22562…
10-12 16:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x506b17…
10-12 16:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x782e28…
10-12 04:18:27	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	8¢	$8	0xd121e4…
10-09 07:32:52	Houthi military action against Mecca by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x7c0c9d…
10-06 12:39:18	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	4¢	$8	0x90b143…
10-06 06:21:30	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x2d7117…
10-02 14:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	6¢	$1	0xf9af67…
10-02 14:23:50	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x97b568…
10-02 13:38:14	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0x6faba2…
10-02 13:38:05	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xc45684…
10-01 17:19:51	Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0xcda955…
10-01 09:11:02	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0x1a3bad…
09-30 19:01:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xff891a…
09-30 12:50:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa40db8…
09-30 12:50:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x515c12…
09-30 04:06:17	bitcoin above 92k on october 3 2026	Yes	BUY	255	1¢	$3	0xc08942…
09-30 00:12:09	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd0bc9c…
09-29 22:08:38	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf246da…
09-29 21:13:14	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xbb437c…
09-29 20:59:15	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x453a1a…
09-29 19:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9ee7c9…
09-29 18:53:47	Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0x70e22c…
09-29 18:49:20	Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xf2d0fa…
09-29 18:45:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 3?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5be0d5…
09-29 18:42:15	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xedfac5…
09-29 13:01:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9e1270…
09-28 20:56:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x86d0e1…
09-28 19:21:36	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x50a671…
09-27 20:05:27	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x860a44…
09-27 20:04:47	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xffbf78…