Realized P&L
-$209
Unrealized P&L
-$34
Hit rate
42.3%
Resolved
355
Trades
9,324
lifetime
Volume
$5.86K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$674
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-13
last 08-31 12:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 37 days
Categories
Other
71% 17% -$100
Politics
13% 17% +$12
Sports
10% 0% -$133
Tech
6% 20% +$10
Crypto
0% 9% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 3212 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes +185 $29 97¢ $179 +$151 08-27 11:05
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +160 $78 64¢ $103 +$25 08-27 17:03
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +110 $67 88¢ $97 +$30 08-25 20:12
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +65 $34 98¢ $64 +$30 08-14 11:28
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +160 $54 28¢ $44 -$10 08-27 17:03
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +75 $48 58¢ $44 -$4 08-27 12:38
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +45 $35 96¢ $43 +$8 08-19 02:09
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +75 $20 37¢ $28 +$8 08-27 12:38
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +20 $18 98¢ $20 +$2 08-16 18:48
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes +160 $19 8¢ $12 -$7 08-27 17:03
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $24 3¢ $5 -$19 08-27 02:04
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? Yes +185 $145 2¢ $5 -$140 08-27 11:05
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? Yes +5 $1 85¢ $4 +$4 08-20 06:24
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +5 $1 76¢ $4 +$3 08-15 14:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes +5 $2 57¢ $3 +$1 08-22 02:36
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +5 $1 53¢ $3 +$2 08-30 04:00
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? Yes +5 $1 50¢ $2 +$1 08-15 08:31
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $14 1¢ $2 -$12 08-27 02:04
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $21 1¢ $2 -$19 08-27 02:04
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes +5 $3 28¢ $1 -$2 08-15 08:31
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes +160 $2 1¢ $1 $0 08-27 17:03
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +5 $1 22¢ $1 +$0 08-15 14:27
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? Yes +30 $1 4¢ $1 +$0 08-26 09:28
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? Yes +5 $1 21¢ $1 $0 08-22 02:36
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $19 1¢ $1 -$18 08-27 02:04
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $11 1¢ $1 -$10 08-27 02:04
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +65 $27 1¢ $1 -$26 08-14 11:28
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes +75 $1 1¢ $1 -$1 08-27 12:38
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? Yes +5 $4 15¢ $1 -$3 08-20 06:24
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes +160 $24 0¢ $1 -$23 08-27 02:04