Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

56.5%

Resolved

146

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$183

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-08-11

last 11-12 04:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

82% 58% +$15

Politics

16% 47% -$3

Tech

1% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	No	+3	$2	84¢	$2	+$1	08-12 21:07
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	+1	$1	78¢	$1	+$0	11-08 16:31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	+2	$1	38¢	$1	$0	11-09 00:55
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	20¢	$1	$0	11-11 12:24
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	36¢	$0	-$1	10-25 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	2	$3	6	+6	Yes	-$1	09-19 07:51
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	2	$2	3	+3	Yes	$0	10-11 14:38
Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	2	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$1	11-11 20:28
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-23 10:50
will trump say transgender during remarks in new york 20260811183234693	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-12 12:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-15 08:09
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-13 13:16
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-09 13:33
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-21 06:03
spx up or down on september 9 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Down	+$2	09-09 04:09
spx up or down on september 11 2026	1	$2	2	+2	Up	+$1	09-11 01:37
spy closes above 775 on august 17 2026	1	$2	6	+6	No	+$5	08-17 11:54
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-13 23:02
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-14 07:03
will abnb dip to 164 by september 7 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-09 23:23
Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-23 19:08
will xauusd dip to 4350 by september 7 2026 from september 9	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-10 07:52
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-23 02:48
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 22?	1	$2	2	+2	Up	+$0	09-22 18:44
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$1	09-24 03:14
will googl dip to 335 by august 10 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$1	08-11 19:33
spy up or down on august 14 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Down	+$2	08-14 00:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-07 12:12
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-02 12:02
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-19 23:51
will pltr dip to 165 by august 17 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$1	08-17 03:50
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-03 15:08
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-17 20:48
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-23 07:17
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-18 22:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 04:31:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb9b87b…
11-11 20:28:51	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x52c9e1…
11-11 20:28:13	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5400e3…
11-11 12:24:34	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x876112…
11-11 04:22:01	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 11?	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xab1a0a…
11-10 20:21:57	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd53548…
11-10 20:07:46	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf6e961…
11-10 11:21:37	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x98a612…
11-10 03:00:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6f74e2…
11-09 18:33:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xaa0615…
11-09 10:25:39	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x255210…
11-09 00:55:15	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7145de…
11-08 16:31:36	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x01a948…
11-08 06:51:49	Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xaa9d87…
11-07 15:16:42	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xeb164f…
11-06 22:46:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x96ae84…
11-06 12:45:34	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x55c460…
11-06 01:24:31	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4a25df…
11-05 13:19:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x71fbd8…
11-05 02:48:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xcae6ba…
11-05 01:06:01	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x13752f…
11-04 11:27:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on November 4?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x620384…
11-04 03:25:25	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x425b4d…
11-03 18:47:54	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on November 3?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe9811b…
11-03 10:46:18	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 3?	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x15b8cb…
11-03 02:44:25	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9b5343…
11-02 18:43:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9605b7…
11-02 10:42:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5f6d2a…
11-02 02:42:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd2298b…
11-01 05:39:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x2ff489…
10-29 03:02:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x94e5d4…
10-28 14:05:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x949813…
10-28 03:59:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xde447e…
10-27 19:41:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe3fd30…
10-27 11:41:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x253dec…
10-27 03:33:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4575de…
10-25 14:47:42	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x1c9916…
10-25 06:35:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8f6517…
10-23 16:50:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7cf9c0…
10-23 08:13:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0ae483…
10-23 00:12:51	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7461da…
10-22 16:12:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xff221a…
10-20 19:46:29	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x86019d…
10-19 23:46:15	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x1228dd…
10-19 15:45:03	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x650814…
10-19 07:19:03	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xfdd046…
10-18 23:16:44	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb02d75…
10-18 12:15:05	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8e3062…
10-18 00:03:36	Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3f2520…
10-17 15:55:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x411b2c…
10-17 04:18:54	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0d4b6a…
10-16 12:37:10	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x75991a…
10-16 04:33:40	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf0d8a7…
10-15 16:55:52	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x6fc40a…
10-15 08:48:02	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfdaf5b…
10-15 00:03:03	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbc3c8b…
10-14 15:14:39	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x95cbd9…
10-14 07:10:25	spy closes above 775 on october 14 2026	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa6b08d…
10-13 22:51:58	will mu reach 990 by october 12 2026	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x37c27e…
10-11 14:38:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfe59ce…
10-11 14:38:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd4eb60…
10-11 14:33:25	Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2026d9…
10-11 02:56:12	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2db961…
10-10 17:14:01	Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.65?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x9b4cbe…
10-10 05:41:45	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x757636…
10-10 02:03:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf73f69…
10-09 15:27:40	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x95b7ca…
10-09 05:15:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7a1400…
10-08 21:14:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x71344c…
10-08 13:07:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 8?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf09a10…
10-08 04:01:53	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0f652a…
10-07 19:45:04	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xb96e05…
10-07 11:25:53	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x52b446…
10-07 02:48:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb263c6…
10-06 18:47:30	will coin reach 190 by october 5 2026 from october 6	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2416c4…
10-06 10:47:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 6?	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x890323…
10-06 02:27:58	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7df830…
10-05 15:35:46	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1348b3…
10-05 15:28:55	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa1c471…
10-05 09:42:31	will abnb dip to 158 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa0854e…
10-05 00:59:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7e247e…
10-02 09:55:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd2076d…
10-02 01:36:57	will rklb dip to 70 by september 28 2026 from october 1	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x93e178…
10-01 12:16:32	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 1?	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x11dd78…
10-01 04:05:32	trump names ai czar by october 4 2026 20260928	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x246511…
09-30 19:52:06	will xauusd reach 4200 by september 28 2026 from september 30	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6ddc17…
09-30 10:08:09	will spy dip to 755 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x43b4f4…
09-30 00:43:35	will xauusd reach 4250 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xbfa24c…
09-29 16:32:27	will googl reach 350 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc24db1…
09-29 08:31:03	will googl reach 345 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xeb7373…
09-29 00:25:12	will xagusd reach 62 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x232002…
09-28 15:35:24	spy closes above 765 on september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x275e39…
09-28 07:04:36	will nvda dip to 216 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1c3e0e…
09-27 22:46:17	will xauusd dip to 4150 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x8e09e2…
09-27 14:45:08	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x808083…
09-27 05:35:48	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdfa88c…
09-26 21:30:06	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x990853…
09-26 07:31:51	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5bea4f…
09-25 21:54:03	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xdbfb0f…
09-25 13:52:39	wti up or down on september 25 2026	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x72eb24…