Ample-Cellar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$54

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$59.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$664

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 10-14 04:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 100% +$52

Other

0% 94% +$4

Politics

0% 86% -$3

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		-2	-$2	99¢	$-2	$0	10-14 04:16
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		-1	-$1	100¢	$-1	$0	08-03 13:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 60k on march 18	6	$13.3K	6,669	6,662	+7	Yes	+$0	03-15 03:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	5	$10.2K	5,120	5,120	+0	Yes	+$5	05-19 02:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	12	$10.2K	5,099	5,099	+0	Yes	+$5	05-18 08:40
will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	6	$6.3K	3,158	3,150	+8	No	+$0	03-15 01:49
bitcoin above 74k on march 14	3	$5.4K	2,711	2,701	+10	No	+$3	03-14 11:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	1	$5.1K	5,100	0	+5,100	Yes	+$26	05-18 13:41
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	1	$3.3K	3,333	0	+3,333	Yes	+$3	03-14 13:56
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	2	$3.2K	3,244	0	+3,244	Yes	+$3	05-20 13:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?	1	$1.9K	1,883	0	+1,883	Yes	+$4	05-20 04:31
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$1	02-24 17:06
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$0	02-16 03:04
will march 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	03-08 06:43
will manfred reyes villa win the 2026 cochabamba mayoral election 983	2	$10	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	03-05 11:38
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	2	$10	6	4	+2	Yes	+$0	03-18 03:54
kraken ipo by march 31 2026	3	$9	8	2	+7	No	+$0	03-12 11:28
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$0	02-21 04:32
will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$0	03-25 21:55
ukraine election called by march 31 2026	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$0	03-01 01:09
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$8	9	0	+9	No	+$0	04-08 01:11
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	3	$6	3	3	+0	No	+$0	03-23 00:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	04-05 20:16
will solana dip to 85 on april 22	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-22 18:18
will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	03-30 04:35
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	1	$6	0	6	-6	Yes	$0	06-29 18:08
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	02-08 14:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 2?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-02 11:27
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	1	$4	7	0	+7	No	+$2	02-17 09:56
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	6	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	03-27 22:58
will trump send tomahawk to ukraine by march 31	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-13 06:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	-$4	03-31 22:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 04:16:40	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x64b032…
09-02 11:27:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 2?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4c06a5…
08-03 13:52:29	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4713ec…
07-16 11:55:22	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x34a777…
06-29 18:08:04	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xaa5eaf…
05-20 13:15:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0xb99d7a…
05-20 12:25:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	3,182	100¢	$3,179	0xe504bf…
05-20 04:31:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	1,883	100¢	$1,879	0x32cd9c…
05-19 02:13:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	SELL	5,120	100¢	$5,115	0x6dce6d…
05-19 01:17:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	1,584	100¢	$1,581	0x627a9a…
05-19 01:10:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x0693c9…
05-19 01:02:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0xa105df…
05-19 00:47:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	898	100¢	$896	0x5d2ce7…
05-18 13:41:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5,100	100¢	$5,074	0xf14eae…
05-18 08:40:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	1,067	100¢	$1,065	0x6f6dde…
05-18 08:39:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe4c4fe…
05-18 08:39:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x31080f…
05-18 08:38:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	902	100¢	$900	0xf8eba3…
05-18 08:37:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xd413e8…
05-18 08:37:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	752	100¢	$750	0xb9bee0…
05-18 08:36:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x9d06c4…
05-18 08:33:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	1,219	100¢	$1,217	0x1e2dd9…
05-18 08:32:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	SELL	822	100¢	$821	0xdf836e…
05-18 08:20:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1,085	100¢	$1,082	0x0e178c…
05-18 08:18:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	380	100¢	$379	0xd2667d…
05-18 08:16:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	3,634	100¢	$3,623	0x941619…
05-15 07:53:26	Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x726fbb…
04-22 18:18:06	will solana dip to 85 on april 22	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x3a538f…
04-19 23:11:54	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x07ea87…
04-18 22:08:12	will spacex starship flight test 12 launch by april 30 133 938	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x064e2b…
04-17 07:38:16	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa9b6db…
04-12 18:37:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x8db619…
04-08 01:11:39	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcda3ed…
04-05 20:16:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x1843ac…
03-31 22:15:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xacbbda…
03-30 04:35:18	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb67c57…
03-28 18:37:19	Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5a8ffa…
03-27 22:58:31	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xeacb4d…
03-26 20:57:51	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x02bd5a…
03-25 21:55:37	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9a8fa4…
03-25 00:59:35	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb9a8ae…
03-23 11:55:39	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xcb1726…
03-23 00:51:47	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x323b0c…
03-20 04:18:25	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdbebdf…
03-18 03:54:37	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x43d751…
03-18 01:49:01	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$4	0xb03e1d…
03-15 03:07:23	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	SELL	812	100¢	$809	0xb032f9…
03-15 03:02:39	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	SELL	2,518	100¢	$2,511	0xc76f56…
03-15 02:34:39	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	BUY	3,332	100¢	$3,322	0x93e66b…
03-15 02:08:27	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	SELL	1,720	100¢	$1,715	0xdf8a2c…
03-15 02:07:43	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	SELL	1,612	100¢	$1,607	0x55f599…
03-15 02:06:41	bitcoin above 60k on march 18	Yes	BUY	3,337	100¢	$3,327	0x5a4c4b…
03-15 01:49:33	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	SELL	1,099	100¢	$1,098	0x88f220…
03-15 01:32:43	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	SELL	1,981	100¢	$1,979	0xbc8ea0…
03-15 01:31:37	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x482850…
03-15 01:31:25	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xb1ea69…
03-15 01:23:49	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x54b467…
03-15 01:07:33	will bitcoin dip to 69k on march 14	No	BUY	3,158	100¢	$3,154	0xc4fe6b…
03-14 21:47:11	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x55b709…
03-14 17:35:23	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc7a38c…
03-14 13:56:45	bitcoin above 68k on march 14	Yes	BUY	3,333	100¢	$3,330	0x092dbd…
03-14 11:54:11	bitcoin above 74k on march 14	No	SELL	2,701	100¢	$2,698	0xfcd6c5…
03-14 08:40:51	bitcoin above 74k on march 14	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x77d778…
03-14 08:37:13	bitcoin above 74k on march 14	No	BUY	2,701	100¢	$2,695	0x2827b5…
03-13 06:33:31	will trump send tomahawk to ukraine by march 31	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xeeed07…
03-12 11:28:01	kraken ipo by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe727a8…
03-11 20:37:33	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xed6b6b…
03-10 13:35:07	kraken ipo by march 31 2026	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0xbe5183…
03-09 06:56:15	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xbc20ff…
03-08 06:43:19	will march 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x627957…
03-07 09:26:13	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x4443c1…
03-05 11:38:33	will manfred reyes villa win the 2026 cochabamba mayoral election 983	Yes	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x0d1725…
03-04 03:22:27	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by march 31 117 352	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x7f0c92…
03-03 02:25:53	solana up or down on march 3	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x0cc040…
03-02 00:41:03	kraken ipo by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x6a2845…
03-01 01:09:27	ukraine election called by march 31 2026	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x4a0bf9…
02-27 23:08:37	will march 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x9a0792…
02-27 08:52:33	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x84186b…
02-24 17:06:00	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x79e02b…
02-22 15:41:28	elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 420 439	No	BUY	6	89¢	$6	0xa16d30…
02-21 04:32:20	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf87cc4…
02-20 14:50:56	ukraine election called by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$4	0x244642…
02-19 19:18:10	will manfred reyes villa win the 2026 cochabamba mayoral election 983	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4acd14…
02-17 23:47:15	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8e80ee…
02-17 09:56:13	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	7	69¢	$4	0x12ab0a…
02-16 03:04:17	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x5767a5…
02-15 07:59:19	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x5eba31…
02-08 14:49:15	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x3b8f95…
02-07 12:56:33	will us gdp growth in 2025 be greater than 2pt5	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x31799e…