Brown-Accountability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.35K

Unrealized P&L

+$40

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

5,432

Trades

24,719

lifetime

Volume

$23.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 10:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 284 days

Categories

Other

85% 24% -$653

Sports

7% 27% -$939

Politics

4% 60% +$225

Crypto

2% 33% +$107

Tech

2% 36% +$74

Pop-Culture

1% 8% -$161

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 836 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2027	Yes		+0	$0	33¢	$0	+$0	10-05 14:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	Yes		+0	-$40	0¢	$0	+$40	10-02 09:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09?	62	$616	2,289	2,289	+0	No	+$606	06-04 21:34
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	2	$523	608	608	+0	No	+$511	06-06 13:30
will super troopers 3 score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260805011231500	3	$451	527	447	+80	No	+$480	08-06 22:17
will kai or speed die to a vex 20260811142413298	4	$329	521	521	+0	No	+$319	08-12 21:42
Spread: CS Cartaginés (-5.5)	2	$288	286	286	+0	AD San Carlos	+$283	09-21 02:49
British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21?	7	$236	380	380	+0	Down	+$228	09-21 20:32
where will it rain on september 29 2026 houston tx	8	$174	401	401	+0	No	+$166	09-29 13:20
will indiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2028	2	$164	399	399	+0	open	—	10-02 03:59
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 saves nawaf al aqidi gte2	5	$157	602	602	+0	No	+$144	06-21 09:51
Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	2	$150	413	413	+0	Yes	+$142	09-22 04:54
will trump say mount rushmore this week 20260703145736726	3	$135	487	487	+0	Yes	+$125	07-05 04:02
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	12	$134	416	416	+0	Yes	+$126	09-03 13:33
Will Lacy and Marlon have between 50 and 99 Warzone deaths during the marathon?	8	$133	416	416	+0	Yes	+$124	09-03 07:43
usdchf up or down on august 18 2026	9	$129	145	145	+0	Up	+$126	08-18 20:56
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 saves nawaf al aqidi gte3	6	$123	602	599	+3	No	+$111	06-21 15:00
Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 21?	5	$120	195	195	+0	Down	+$116	09-21 19:43
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	8	$105	413	413	+0	Yes	+$97	09-22 09:50
lol dcg shg 2026 02 28	6	$102	442	442	+0	Deep Cross Gaming	+$93	02-27 21:32
Will no MrBeast gaming video be posted?	2	$92	219	122	+97	open	—	10-25 18:55
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	3	$89	221	221	+0	open	—	10-22 01:52
nba was mia 2026 03 10 spread home 15pt5	2	$76	159	159	+0	Heat	+$73	03-10 02:10
Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5%-9.5%?	2	$75	197	197	+0	No	+$71	07-22 08:50
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	11	$70	0	412	-412	Yes	+$70	03-31 18:52
will mouz win blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260709150231156	9	$66	260	260	+0	resolved	+$61	07-11 00:44
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?	6	$64	103	103	+0	Yes	+$62	06-07 12:55
will trump say autism during his announcement on healthcare	3	$63	65	65	+0	Yes	+$62	09-18 19:59
will the announcers say notorious during mcgregor vs holloway 20260708162714693	6	$62	213	213	+0	No	+$57	07-11 13:54
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	2	$61	154	154	+0	open	—	10-23 01:36
nba det okc 2026 03 30 spread home 14pt5	8	$54	118	118	+0	Pistons	+$52	03-30 06:51
si up or down on february 25 2026	5	$54	666	403	+263	Up	+$41	02-25 20:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:36:53	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xd11a01…
10-27 13:36:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x0de38d…
10-27 10:01:14	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	1¢	$2	0xdf73b2…
10-27 08:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3ec5b6…
10-27 08:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0be2d1…
10-27 08:07:06	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x279c21…
10-27 07:38:06	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xafcd00…
10-27 07:36:26	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x70227b…
10-27 07:35:32	Will Qwen have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0xfe8a93…
10-27 06:59:14	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0xd44c18…
10-27 06:45:44	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd66919…
10-27 06:30:47	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x300ee9…
10-27 06:29:27	donald trump of truth social posts october 30 november 6 2026 80 99	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd874d3…
10-27 06:23:05	donald trump of truth social posts october 30 november 6 2026 20 39	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0xbffec3…
10-27 06:23:05	donald trump of truth social posts october 30 november 6 2026 40 59	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0xa10d53…
10-27 06:06:00	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9ac917…
10-27 06:05:59	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xca7659…
10-27 06:05:56	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xa10099…
10-27 05:58:02	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x737866…
10-27 05:57:32	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xbe455f…
10-27 05:54:00	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0x4667ae…
10-27 05:35:26	lowest temperature in karachi on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x44c17a…
10-27 05:35:24	lowest temperature in karachi on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xeca2e8…
10-27 05:35:20	lowest temperature in karachi on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x50b0ae…
10-27 05:35:18	lowest temperature in karachi on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xff6f5c…
10-27 05:27:27	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3ec9b2…
10-27 05:14:23	highest temperature in guangzhou on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	108	1¢	$1	0x217bcc…
10-27 04:58:03	lowest temperature in beijing on october 29 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x9b25dc…
10-27 04:58:02	lowest temperature in beijing on october 29 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x86fb44…
10-27 04:57:59	lowest temperature in beijing on october 29 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xf39df8…
10-27 04:57:57	lowest temperature in beijing on october 29 2026 9c	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xdbee6e…
10-27 04:57:53	lowest temperature in beijing on october 29 2026 10corhigher	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5155ff…
10-27 04:51:09	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xd51977…
10-27 04:51:09	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x843de3…
10-27 04:22:32	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" have a Metascore of at least 60?	No	SELL	216	3¢	$7	0xaf1799…
10-27 04:20:42	Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x635d5c…
10-27 04:20:42	Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x159330…
10-27 04:20:38	Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbdf581…
10-27 04:18:26	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x52a0c4…
10-27 04:18:26	Will Anthropic IPO on November 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x2c0620…
10-27 03:53:53	will microsoft say agent agentic during earnings call october 28	No	BUY	216	1¢	$2	0x52edd0…
10-27 03:53:35	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" have a Metascore of at least 60?	No	BUY	216	1¢	$2	0xb653dc…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd30707…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xae7c8d…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x8f8a64…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x7d99ba…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x795dbe…
10-27 03:50:05	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x65dcb1…
10-27 03:50:03	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xebc579…
10-27 03:50:03	Will Anthropic IPO on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7753b1…
10-27 03:39:15	Will Anthropic IPO on November 13, 2026 or earlier?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3f8e1c…
10-27 02:07:51	Will MiniMax have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0x4d5e34…
10-27 01:59:51	will trumps midterm rally in corpus christi texas not air october 27 tx	Yes	BUY	216	1¢	$2	0xe4ef2b…
10-26 23:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd5f1c2…
10-26 23:38:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x10a588…
10-26 22:44:39	Will the earnings call not air?	Yes	SELL	210	2¢	$4	0xc1dcfe…
10-26 22:07:21	Will Arnab peak at severe cyclonic storm or weaker?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x13fb91…
10-26 22:05:20	Will Arnab peak at severe cyclonic storm or weaker?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0xdc1d67…
10-26 21:17:33	Will Omaha, NE face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8b365b…
10-26 21:17:33	Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6d0f36…
10-26 21:17:33	which cities face tornado risk on october 26 2026 minneapolis mn	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x3bbe5e…
10-26 20:21:20	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x0f2dbf…
10-26 20:15:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0xa61de5…
10-26 20:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x84f106…
10-26 19:25:59	Will St. Louis, MO face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	49	1¢	$0	0x9782c6…
10-26 19:24:57	Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	177	1¢	$2	0xcab0a4…
10-26 19:23:54	Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$2	0x7a7ac7…
10-26 19:23:32	Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$2	0xb7f31d…
10-26 19:21:24	Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$2	0x6fa4a0…
10-26 19:21:05	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be less than 18%?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0xf8b196…
10-26 18:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	64	1¢	$1	0x9e923f…
10-26 18:37:48	Will the US national average gas price be $4.3100+ on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x03a454…
10-26 18:35:26	Will the US national average gas price be $4.3100+ on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xeb056d…
10-26 18:29:38	Will the US national average gas price be $4.3100+ on October 27?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x3aa71b…
10-26 18:07:23	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be less than 18%?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xcd676c…
10-26 17:08:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0x836a55…
10-26 17:06:11	which cities face tornado risk on october 26 2026 new orleans la	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0x28bd79…
10-26 17:04:48	which cities face tornado risk on october 26 2026 omaha ne	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xadcd1e…
10-26 17:04:17	which cities face tornado risk on october 26 2026 kansas city mo	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xd445b4…
10-26 17:01:53	Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x856171…
10-26 17:01:20	Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0x3aff72…
10-26 17:00:20	Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0x6f0de8…
10-26 16:59:42	Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on October 26?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0xe36943…
10-26 16:51:42	elon musk of tweets october 29 october 31 2026 165 189	Yes	BUY	217	1¢	$2	0x18b951…
10-26 16:32:09	will trumps midterm rally in mississippi not air october 26 ms	Yes	BUY	217	1¢	$2	0x6d007f…
10-26 15:51:59	Will Meta have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x86f801…
10-26 15:50:17	Will Meta have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3ffd5f…
10-26 15:48:47	Will Meta have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xc3f416…
10-26 15:48:06	Will Meta have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x0500f0…
10-26 15:42:29	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xdc0491…
10-26 15:42:23	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xf0f144…
10-26 15:42:23	Will Qwen have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x5c4a2e…
10-26 15:42:23	Will Meta have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x0aebb0…
10-26 15:42:21	Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xa31084…
10-26 15:23:50	Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe3f4c5…
10-26 15:23:50	Will Meta have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc18fdf…
10-26 15:23:50	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3301a2…
10-26 15:23:50	Will Qwen have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x192244…
10-26 15:21:05	Will Meta have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xba030a…
10-26 15:21:05	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3b3365…