Necessary-Fireplace — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-11 08:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 86% -$8

Other

41% 90% -$6

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 0% -$2

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 17	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	01-16 12:03
ethereum above 3400 on january 9	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	01-09 10:46
ethereum above 2600 on january 4	1	$97	97	+97	Yes	+$0	01-03 10:51
highest temperature in london on january 6 neg 1c	1	$97	97	+97	No	+$0	01-05 13:25
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 460 479	1	$91	91	+91	No	+$0	03-15 05:00
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	03-18 13:35
will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 7	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	03-07 05:41
ethereum above 2500 on march 20	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	03-19 13:43
highest temperature in paris on april 1 2026 16corhigher	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	04-01 11:25
bitcoin above 66k on march 22	1	$90	90	+90	Yes	+$0	03-22 13:25
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 540 559	1	$90	90	+90	No	+$0	03-11 13:41
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	05-21 10:57
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$89	89	+89	No	+$0	05-10 12:33
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on april 12	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	04-12 09:22
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 3?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	05-02 03:53
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	05-03 11:42
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 7?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	05-06 12:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	05-24 13:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	04-25 12:48
bitcoin above 80k on april 17	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	04-17 11:11
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?	1	$88	88	+88	No	+$0	04-18 10:39
bitcoin above 70k on april 11	1	$88	88	+88	Yes	+$0	04-11 07:35
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	1	$84	84	+84	No	+$0	06-04 09:13
meta above 660 on january 23 2026	1	$67	67	+67	No	+$0	01-21 11:46
will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on april 4	1	$59	59	+59	No	+$0	04-03 10:55
will xrp reach 2 february 9 15	1	$58	58	+58	No	+$0	02-14 06:20
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 10 2026	1	$57	57	+57	No	+$0	02-10 12:19
bitcoin above 96k on january 25	1	$49	49	+49	No	+$0	01-24 13:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?	1	$43	43	+43	Yes	+$0	06-01 11:51
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 420 439	1	$42	43	+43	No	+$1	02-02 11:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 08:35:09	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 5-11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x21b827…
10-11 08:33:27	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x671ce8…
09-19 10:11:17	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x795e6b…
09-19 10:04:04	Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	522	0¢	$2	0x0bb72a…
08-25 08:20:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf61673…
07-18 11:26:31	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x038b1b…
06-04 09:13:15	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xd9a34f…
06-01 11:51:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x758172…
06-01 11:39:03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	982	0¢	$3	0x7de730…
06-01 11:24:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1?	No	BUY	1,050	0¢	$2	0x3ea265…
06-01 11:21:00	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd5d929…
05-24 13:27:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x9b4d68…
05-21 10:57:16	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x670d5a…
05-10 12:33:39	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x09cddf…
05-06 12:22:12	Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 7?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x9495d2…
05-03 11:42:32	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x0eadaf…
05-02 03:53:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 3?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x443bb2…
04-25 12:48:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x649dc6…
04-18 10:39:58	Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0xdc9b75…
04-17 11:11:12	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0xc83ef2…
04-12 09:22:07	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on april 12	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x42e317…
04-11 07:35:07	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x1218d4…
04-03 10:55:41	will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on april 4	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x28f05b…
04-03 10:43:15	ethereum above 2400 on april 4	Yes	BUY	880	0¢	$2	0xe58f3e…
04-03 10:42:27	ethereum above 1900 on april 3	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0c1ff7…
04-03 10:23:55	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x6fa473…
04-03 10:23:29	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 215 239	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x9d5d11…
04-01 11:25:41	highest temperature in paris on april 1 2026 16corhigher	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xb4d264…
03-22 13:25:03	bitcoin above 66k on march 22	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x5a0ce2…
03-19 13:43:27	ethereum above 2500 on march 20	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xed6bb8…
03-18 13:35:09	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x498055…
03-15 05:00:17	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 460 479	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x93e606…
03-11 13:41:33	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 540 559	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xe120f1…
03-07 05:41:33	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on march 7	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x6e8abb…
02-14 06:20:17	will xrp reach 2 february 9 15	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xf4544c…
02-10 12:21:07	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5e0f0c…
02-10 12:19:07	will grok 4pt20 be released on february 10 2026	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x83d616…
02-02 11:43:12	will shelter opening weekend box office be between 3m and 3pt5m	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x24c18c…
02-02 11:34:44	will the price of bitcoin be between 90000 92000 on february 3	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x838642…
02-02 11:31:10	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 420 439	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x3fae9c…
02-02 11:22:06	ethereum above 2700 on february 3	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x09a334…
02-02 11:21:12	ethereum above 2700 on february 2	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1fcad8…
01-24 13:19:56	will bitcoin reach 98k january 19 25	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x88383a…
01-24 13:02:28	will mercy opening weekend box office be greater than 14m	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x69907c…
01-24 13:00:56	bitcoin above 96k on january 25	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x2f58c3…
01-21 11:50:26	amzn above 235 on january 23 2026	No	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0xeaf933…
01-21 11:46:00	meta above 660 on january 23 2026	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x6b5ce0…
01-16 12:03:18	will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 17	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x9bb6b0…
01-09 10:46:06	ethereum above 3400 on january 9	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x4fcc8a…
01-05 13:25:03	highest temperature in london on january 6 neg 1c	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x7cde21…
01-03 10:51:05	ethereum above 2600 on january 4	Yes	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xb0a321…