Crafty-Irony-Sole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.36K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

2,858

Trades

6,861

lifetime

Volume

$77.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$598

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 10-27 20:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Other

49% 43% +$553

Crypto

38% 31% -$1,488

Politics

7% 23% -$9

Sports

6% 42% -$406

Tech

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 202 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+201	$111	96¢	$193	+$82	09-16 19:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+197	$144	94¢	$186	+$42	10-26 06:01
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+100	$94	99¢	$99	+$5	10-12 18:17
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$87	97¢	$97	+$10	09-29 18:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+197	$85	6¢	$11	-$74	10-22 03:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+201	$90	4¢	$8	-$82	09-16 19:40
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$8	3¢	$3	-$4	09-29 18:36
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+100	$6	1¢	$1	-$5	10-12 17:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	21	$1.4K	1,634	1,240	+394	open	—	10-26 06:01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	17	$1.2K	2,000	1,200	+800	Yes	-$2	10-22 18:48
will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1	18	$1.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	No	-$27	10-20 18:18
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	5	$1.0K	1,012	1,012	+0	Manchester City FC	-$10	09-20 14:44
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	2	$680	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-03 04:43
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	2	$675	500	500	+0	open	—	10-03 08:01
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	4	$623	1,100	1,100	+0	Cavaliers	+$49	05-04 01:35
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?	15	$414	411	411	+0	Yes	+$353	07-28 09:45
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	4	$402	1,300	300	+1,000	Timberwolves	+$120	05-05 04:09
will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	2	$378	200	200	+0	No	-$2	09-26 04:16
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 15?	3	$364	400	400	+0	Yes	-$52	08-14 15:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	2	$358	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	10-23 21:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	2	$332	179	179	+0	open	—	10-26 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 18?	5	$324	240	240	+0	No	-$5	08-17 13:50
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?	2	$309	300	300	+0	No	-$9	08-16 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$296	400	0	+400	Up	-$96	05-05 12:24
dota2 pari lgd 2026 09 30 game2	4	$289	166	166	+0	PARIVISION	+$9	09-30 16:37
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	25	$286	1,495	1,221	+273	Yes	-$10	10-12 08:14
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	11	$285	216	216	+0	Under	+$4	10-26 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$282	400	0	+400	Down	-$82	05-05 12:18
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 30?	18	$278	228	228	+0	Yes	+$174	07-30 09:09
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	3	$273	150	150	+0	Yes	+$2	10-25 19:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 01:25 UTC	9	$271	250	200	+50	Down	+$57	08-03 01:29
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	2	$252	200	200	+0	Yes	-$4	09-09 01:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	3	$235	450	0	+450	Down	-$35	05-05 07:08
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	8	$231	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	10-06 06:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$230	500	0	+500	Up	-$30	05-05 07:23
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 28?	9	$225	129	129	+0	Yes	-$9	08-28 03:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$222	400	0	+400	Up	-$22	05-05 06:52
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?	3	$212	400	0	+400	No	-$12	08-18 13:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:09:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	8¢	$5	0x21ed1d…
10-27 20:07:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x820032…
10-27 19:15:06	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0xbfbf53…
10-27 19:14:29	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xb8b035…
10-27 19:13:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x6033a6…
10-27 19:09:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	9¢	$5	0x10caeb…
10-27 19:08:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0x23df7a…
10-27 18:16:44	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x7c466f…
10-27 18:04:33	Will Anthropic raise less than $65B in its IPO?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x4947f1…
10-27 17:01:05	Will Anthropic raise less than $65B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x06abd4…
10-27 16:23:29	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x5d5235…
10-27 16:23:14	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x8b9a4c…
10-27 16:02:03	Will Anthropic raise at least $135B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x2f30ae…
10-27 13:03:59	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x449f1a…
10-27 12:58:20	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xb9bb62…
10-27 12:58:20	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x0b7af5…
10-27 09:20:35	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x3417b0…
10-27 09:20:23	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x2e8bc0…
10-27 08:42:06	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xdd7bbc…
10-27 08:40:42	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x0d0d48…
10-27 05:26:44	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xc1e5ca…
10-27 05:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 27?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x0b68eb…
10-27 05:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 27?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xfa7ceb…
10-27 04:11:36	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	SELL	49	1¢	$1	0x31f638…
10-27 03:34:24	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x590dfc…
10-27 03:32:02	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9cdd54…
10-27 03:23:02	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Jazz	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x3aba26…
10-27 02:58:12	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xa5dae6…
10-27 02:47:02	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x042611…
10-27 02:27:17	Hawks vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x8006ac…
10-27 02:19:05	Pacers vs. Bucks	Pacers	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xb63e6c…
10-27 01:43:48	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	SELL	28	56¢	$16	0xd462e8…
10-27 01:41:50	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x741a3f…
10-27 01:31:47	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	80	13¢	$10	0xc65832…
10-27 01:13:21	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0x7f7590…
10-27 00:38:42	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x56f6e3…
10-27 00:37:57	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x0a29ad…
10-27 00:02:27	Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xf8c944…
10-26 23:58:51	trump declassifies new ufo files by december 31 20261026	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xe16f56…
10-26 23:57:27	Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x4a9478…
10-26 23:54:39	Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x59ccc5…
10-26 23:44:50	Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc00bfd…
10-26 23:42:51	trump declassifies new ufo files by december 31 20261026	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x72c7ba…
10-26 23:42:21	trump declassifies new ufo files by november 15 2026 20261026	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xdb719b…
10-26 23:36:09	Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x9c8a76…
10-26 23:36:09	Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?	No	BUY	18	14¢	$3	0x4eb9f3…
10-26 18:00:32	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x62a0a3…
10-26 17:42:44	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0x34325a…
10-26 17:35:53	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	49	73¢	$36	0x9a3bd5…
10-26 17:35:48	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	39	73¢	$28	0x193bcd…
10-26 17:35:27	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x5fb6cf…
10-26 17:21:44	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xdf5226…
10-26 17:21:44	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	71	72¢	$51	0x24e97b…
10-26 17:15:33	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0x55f2ed…
10-26 17:14:36	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0xae29aa…
10-26 17:14:35	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x6a302c…
10-26 17:13:45	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	16	59¢	$9	0xa4421b…
10-26 17:13:26	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x75b550…
10-26 17:13:03	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0xd782d5…
10-26 17:12:14	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	40	45¢	$18	0x76b971…
10-26 17:11:23	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xfc142a…
10-26 17:11:00	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0xc7ee77…
10-26 17:10:56	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x558903…
10-26 17:10:41	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	SELL	81	62¢	$50	0xe966c7…
10-26 17:08:48	Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x201a50…
10-26 16:37:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xd73817…
10-26 16:22:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x96dcc7…
10-26 16:15:47	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x799c20…
10-26 16:07:17	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Liquid	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x95aad8…
10-26 15:47:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc26cb9…
10-26 15:46:17	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Liquid	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xea3b91…
10-26 15:15:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x55f8cf…
10-26 14:57:08	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xc6aa3d…
10-26 14:43:29	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x1f1778…
10-26 14:41:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	179	93¢	$166	0xc38b8a…
10-26 14:40:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	179	93¢	$166	0x85dddb…
10-26 06:01:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x77d735…
10-26 04:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 26?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xece7eb…
10-26 04:54:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 26?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x274f49…
10-26 04:49:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 26?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x312a25…
10-26 04:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x469274…
10-26 04:21:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 26?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xa9ffc4…
10-26 04:12:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x5f3899…
10-26 03:58:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x7b169e…
10-26 03:33:36	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x62f9fe…
10-26 03:32:33	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4b1c81…
10-26 03:31:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x43a9f4…
10-26 03:24:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xec11b8…
10-26 03:19:33	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xb3c046…
10-26 03:12:06	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xda0fa6…
10-25 22:48:05	Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 259.5	Over	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xd971a6…
10-25 22:22:59	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x226e69…
10-25 22:20:20	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5b05d3…
10-25 22:18:06	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xdf22cc…
10-25 22:17:15	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x257722…
10-25 22:14:35	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	144	4¢	$6	0x1c2822…
10-25 22:13:06	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	95	5¢	$5	0x66949e…
10-25 22:10:32	Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x3f380b…
10-25 20:48:02	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0xb5bb7e…
10-25 20:45:39	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x054e7c…