Horrible-Peanut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$205

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

47.6%

Resolved

723

Trades

1,876

lifetime

Volume

$4.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 10-15 13:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 37% -$205

Other

0% — —

Tech

0% 0% $0

Politics

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+5	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	10-14 11:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+5	$4	87¢	$4	+$0	10-14 04:53
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+5	$4	72¢	$4	$0	10-15 13:23
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	10-14 03:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 17 10am et	9	$154	165	139	+26	Up	-$2	02-17 16:41
bitcoin up or down february 17 11am et	14	$78	129	119	+10	Up	-$6	02-17 16:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 15:00 UTC	7	$72	119	80	+39	Down	+$6	02-17 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	19	$70	73	69	+4	Down	-$1	05-16 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	15	$54	65	59	+6	Up	-$5	05-16 15:40
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-16 21:00 UTC	4	$53	74	59	+15	Up	-$6	02-16 23:20
ethereum up or down february 17 6pm et	19	$53	64	45	+19	Down	+$6	02-18 00:02
bitcoin up or down february 17 5pm et	7	$52	57	24	+33	Down	-$4	02-17 23:13
bitcoin up or down february 17 6pm et	18	$50	73	38	+35	Down	+$9	02-18 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11PM ET	14	$47	174	60	+114	Down	+$5	05-16 04:03
bitcoin up or down february 16 7pm et	10	$46	64	35	+28	Down	+$4	02-17 00:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9AM ET	15	$46	113	105	+8	Up	+$2	05-16 14:00
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	10	$45	41	41	+0	Down	-$4	05-16 10:13
ethereum up or down february 18 3am et	17	$45	45	39	+6	Up	-$1	02-18 08:55
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	12	$42	57	46	+11	Down	+$1	05-16 09:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 00:15 UTC	5	$41	49	15	+35	Down	+$5	02-17 00:32
bitcoin up or down february 17 9pm et	15	$41	48	37	+11	Up	+$0	02-18 02:50
bitcoin up or down february 17 11pm et	10	$40	49	23	+26	Up	+$0	02-18 04:48
ethereum up or down february 17 11pm et	15	$39	58	36	+22	Up	+$1	02-18 05:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 14:45 UTC	6	$38	40	23	+17	Down	+$0	02-17 14:58
bitcoin up or down february 18 12am et	7	$37	29	21	+8	Down	+$1	02-18 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	12	$34	38	38	+0	Up	-$2	05-17 18:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9AM ET	10	$34	58	20	+39	Up	$0	05-16 14:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 00:15 UTC	4	$33	32	20	+12	Down	+$5	02-17 00:32
bitcoin up or down february 18 3am et	8	$31	27	19	+8	Up	-$2	02-18 08:56
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-16 17:00 UTC	4	$31	37	33	+5	Up	-$2	02-16 20:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 15:15 UTC	7	$30	58	23	+35	Up	+$10	02-17 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8AM ET	9	$30	61	28	+33	Down	-$3	05-16 12:59
bitcoin up or down february 17 7pm et	7	$30	32	15	+17	Down	-$4	02-18 00:42
bitcoin up or down february 17 8pm et	6	$29	24	13	+11	Down	+$0	02-18 01:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 13:23:58	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x679372…
10-14 11:15:53	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1e1b74…
10-14 04:53:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xfd0b83…
10-14 03:30:34	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x56b93d…
10-14 03:30:31	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0x153611…
08-07 19:44:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x36a5c6…
08-07 04:46:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xc57257…
07-21 11:30:54	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x805860…
07-21 11:30:54	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x14ec2d…
07-21 11:30:52	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe174ce…
07-21 11:30:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x99f6e1…
07-21 11:30:36	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa6852a…
07-21 11:30:34	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x74955b…
07-21 11:26:55	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xfc191a…
07-21 11:26:55	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1b5bc2…
07-21 11:25:33	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x216f32…
07-21 11:16:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x30c98d…
07-21 11:16:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x1c1d80…
07-21 11:16:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2f0732…
07-21 11:16:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x5751d7…
07-21 11:16:01	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4d51d0…
07-21 11:04:43	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd28f4d…
07-21 11:04:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x305c89…
07-21 11:01:10	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xf78b6d…
07-21 11:01:10	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x8142ff…
07-21 11:01:10	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7f255a…
07-21 10:46:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2f0875…
07-21 10:46:25	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xcc736f…
07-21 10:46:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7238ac…
07-21 10:46:00	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x984da1…
07-21 10:45:57	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x979890…
07-21 10:45:45	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa15436…
07-21 09:07:34	Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbb0c39…
07-21 09:01:13	Solana Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x59a92c…
07-21 09:01:10	Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xec9374…
07-21 09:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x517c9e…
07-21 08:47:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0c09a0…
07-21 08:46:40	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8fc88f…
07-21 08:46:39	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xefa7b1…
07-21 08:45:30	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf006f1…
07-21 08:45:30	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xdee944…
07-21 08:45:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xcbec5a…
07-21 08:31:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x7a5b91…
07-21 08:30:54	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbee3ce…
07-21 08:30:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9b4fac…
07-21 08:24:39	XRP Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x46b36d…
07-21 08:24:36	Solana Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc02d18…
07-21 08:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf02fc6…
07-21 08:23:33	Solana Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x982482…
07-21 08:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9677af…
07-21 06:45:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x78bd69…
07-21 06:45:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x08eb22…
07-21 06:45:33	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7d07a6…
07-21 06:45:18	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x7e2581…
07-21 06:31:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf146e5…
07-21 06:31:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe40144…
07-21 06:31:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x6eedc7…
07-21 06:30:34	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x7a41a9…
07-21 06:23:48	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xcbbe8c…
07-21 06:23:48	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbd8f08…
07-21 06:22:58	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x613c44…
07-21 06:22:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc0c39a…
07-21 06:16:18	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xec4a4d…
07-21 06:16:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x99d282…
07-21 06:16:00	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x8cfbe2…
07-21 06:16:00	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x79ea91…
07-21 06:15:55	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x765d1e…
07-21 06:08:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0xa15bd2…
07-21 06:08:16	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x581bb2…
07-21 06:02:18	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x748e98…
07-21 06:01:09	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x36c3ab…
07-21 06:00:42	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xae9cad…
07-21 06:00:22	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x901709…
07-21 06:00:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x04dc61…
07-21 05:49:07	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x7a66fd…
07-21 05:49:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xf9b09d…
07-21 05:49:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x85b91e…
07-21 05:49:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5bb0e6…
07-21 04:03:37	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x496163…
07-21 04:02:52	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc5e511…
07-21 04:02:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8e4b28…
07-21 04:00:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf6c296…
07-21 04:00:36	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x9937b5…
07-21 04:00:36	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x89ed6e…
07-21 04:00:06	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xee5c4e…
07-21 03:50:15	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xdfc959…
07-21 03:49:34	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6e3ded…
07-21 03:49:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x53c088…
07-21 03:49:28	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x35b5d5…
07-21 03:48:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x7905c3…
07-21 03:48:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1a6e8b…
07-21 03:48:09	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe424a5…
07-21 03:48:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xbdf9e9…
07-21 03:48:09	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb52488…
07-21 03:48:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x362942…
07-21 02:15:09	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xd516d4…
07-21 02:15:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xfd8f0a…
07-21 02:15:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6bf597…
07-21 02:14:07	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x956647…
07-21 02:14:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0xbf6ab0…