Verifiable-Obstacle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.00K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.1%

Resolved

Trades

21,375

lifetime

Volume

$2.31M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$108

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 06:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

60% 86% +$102

Other

29% 76% +$926

Crypto

5% 33% $-36

Tech

3% 100% +$17

Sports

3% 60% $-6

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 239 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	60	$51.3K	33,050	19,101	+13,949	open	—	05-22 23:13
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	133	$47.0K	25,187	23,185	+2,002	open	—	03-04 18:26
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	52	$28.6K	32,243	21,334	+10,909	open	—	07-16 01:30
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	51	$25.2K	16,819	16,737	+82	open	—	07-13 14:23
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	134	$24.6K	12,802	12,796	+5	open	—	03-04 16:11
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	151	$22.1K	26,938	26,084	+854	open	—	04-07 23:08
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	39	$21.5K	10,600	12,572	-1,972	open	—	04-30 23:30
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	176	$19.6K	31,585	32,584	-999	open	—	03-10 12:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	49	$17.9K	14,476	10,317	+4,159	Yes	$-413	05-08 19:29
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	36	$17.4K	16,083	14,911	+1,172	open	—	06-11 01:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	46	$17.2K	10,271	10,270	+1	open	—	04-01 16:03
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	38	$16.3K	10,166	7,205	+2,961	open	—	02-23 02:30
Ethereum flipped in 2026?	9	$15.0K	7,694	7,694	+0	open	—	06-05 20:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$14.1K	16,045	2,750	+13,295	open	—	06-03 21:39
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	35	$13.9K	14,298	9,942	+4,357	open	—	03-02 15:28
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	49	$13.7K	17,687	8,865	+8,823	open	—	08-03 23:18
will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	13	$13.6K	8,083	8,335	-252	open	—	06-18 05:21
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	77	$12.9K	11,258	8,143	+3,115	open	—	07-23 04:09
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$11.5K	8,011	4,005	+4,006	open	—	04-30 20:09
will iran strike israel on march 10	47	$11.3K	7,991	5,196	+2,795	open	—	03-15 20:53
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	38	$10.8K	6,059	6,054	+5	open	—	03-24 20:37
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	48	$10.8K	9,724	8,346	+1,378	open	—	02-07 12:19
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	32	$10.7K	17,549	6,223	+11,326	open	—	06-29 12:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	32	$10.6K	8,500	8,500	+0	open	—	05-09 03:35
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	69	$10.5K	9,608	4,605	+5,003	open	—	04-29 11:07
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	36	$10.5K	9,538	9,300	+237	open	—	07-10 22:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	61	$10.5K	11,060	11,059	+1	open	—	04-29 21:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	16	$10.4K	8,050	7,050	+1,000	open	—	06-15 22:38
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	22	$10.3K	12,550	6,400	+6,150	open	—	08-09 20:04
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	15	$10.0K	5,562	5,561	+1	open	—	03-24 20:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 07:55:55	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	SELL	102	80¢	$82	0xbcf2f9…
08-10 06:29:36	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x70d78f…
08-10 06:00:31	will paulo dybala attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630266	No	SELL	26	93¢	$25	0x89d620…
08-10 02:34:13	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0xebbd88…
08-10 02:31:57	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xf2fa2a…
08-10 02:30:40	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	198	80¢	$158	0xd8ecc3…
08-10 01:32:24	carles puigdemont back in spain in 2026 20260625011546952	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xe692c9…
08-10 01:08:00	will clavicular visit japan in 2026 20260714153003050	No	BUY	311	70¢	$217	0x24ff6f…
08-10 01:07:24	will clavicular visit south korea in 2026 20260714153003052	Yes	BUY	151	11¢	$16	0x43449a…
08-10 01:04:00	will andurils valuation hit high 125b by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0xd7fe28…
08-10 00:31:21	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x793c9b…
08-09 23:46:43	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8c9461…
08-09 23:25:42	Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2ba646…
08-09 23:08:13	will ishaq dar attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044270	No	BUY	132	87¢	$115	0x15ef91…
08-09 22:43:00	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 25 2026 20260724221849656	No	BUY	74	7¢	$5	0x64ec1f…
08-09 22:42:58	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,583	25¢	$396	0x6808fd…
08-09 22:36:00	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0x27dd8e…
08-09 21:57:54	trump meets with putin by december 31	Yes	SELL	248	32¢	$80	0xe84a53…
08-09 21:44:57	Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?	No	BUY	131	78¢	$103	0x111183…
08-09 21:44:10	Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?	No	BUY	87	76¢	$66	0x0fb5a4…
08-09 21:23:33	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	850	78¢	$663	0x9efc6f…
08-09 20:52:54	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x1d11dd…
08-09 20:47:45	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8bd4d5…
08-09 20:46:04	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	565	66¢	$373	0xb8a1ae…
08-09 20:29:27	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	SELL	18	35¢	$6	0x9f1213…
08-09 20:13:15	will gleans valuation hit low 6pt5b by august 31 20260731174449785	No	BUY	195	75¢	$147	0x8f9ea3…
08-09 20:11:58	will andurils valuation hit low 92pt5b by august 31 20260730183401560	No	BUY	148	76¢	$113	0xcd2d58…
08-09 20:04:06	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	SELL	400	74¢	$296	0x89c385…
08-09 19:48:31	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	SELL	2,000	73¢	$1,460	0xa3605e…
08-09 19:43:31	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xdae736…
08-09 19:40:19	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xc937f3…
08-09 19:38:46	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x56d1bf…
08-09 19:29:31	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x9098dd…
08-09 19:16:06	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xeaa4b3…
08-09 19:13:48	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	189	25¢	$47	0x4eeca6…
08-09 19:00:19	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa4b191…
08-09 18:38:27	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	SELL	400	72¢	$288	0xd0042f…
08-09 18:37:39	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x765b03…
08-09 18:33:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0x4138ce…
08-09 18:29:04	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	4,384	71¢	$3,092	0x64ea53…
08-09 17:30:03	will the highest score achieved by an openai model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 50 or higher 20260723225144063	No	BUY	68	5¢	$3	0x3f1b08…
08-09 17:29:36	will the highest score achieved by an openai model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723225144065	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$5	0xfeb3dc…
08-09 17:21:36	will gleans valuation hit low 5b by december 31 20260701011238546	Yes	BUY	202	23¢	$46	0xaf5e4a…
08-09 17:05:06	will canvas valuation hit high 50b by december 31	Yes	BUY	97	22¢	$21	0xa9a523…
08-09 17:04:58	will canvas valuation hit high 50b by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x5e1cc4…
08-09 15:59:48	will jorge jesus attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000254153	No	SELL	240	82¢	$197	0xbc80ad…
08-09 15:59:04	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	No	SELL	4,151	96¢	$3,975	0x22d377…
08-09 15:48:16	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xd47780…
08-09 14:46:04	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044256	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xf60dba…
08-09 14:45:49	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044256	No	BUY	321	79¢	$254	0xf8ae41…
08-09 13:55:00	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	689	66¢	$455	0x14bf4d…
08-09 13:24:00	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	No	BUY	78	89¢	$69	0x82f66b…
08-09 13:24:00	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x4a056f…
08-09 13:17:01	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	No	SELL	62	70¢	$44	0x79a1dd…
08-09 13:15:54	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x6c5c83…
08-09 12:48:07	will perplexitys valuation hit low 16b by august 31 20260730185559510	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x4c7c30…
08-09 12:27:45	will perplexitys valuation hit low 16b by august 31 20260730185559510	No	BUY	110	76¢	$83	0x37bf68…
08-09 12:25:06	will marco rubio attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044255	No	SELL	364	94¢	$342	0x8b4dea…
08-09 12:22:10	will alexandria ocasio cortez announce a presidential run before 2028 20260803143241606	Yes	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xad0809…
08-09 12:04:22	will andurils valuation hit low 75b by december 31	No	BUY	79	78¢	$62	0x7e046c…
08-09 12:04:01	will andurils valuation hit low 75b by december 31	No	BUY	614	77¢	$473	0x4709d0…
08-09 12:02:21	will andurils valuation hit low 65b by december 31	No	BUY	1,912	86¢	$1,649	0xf394ed…
08-09 11:57:52	will andurils valuation hit low 92pt5b by august 31 20260730183401560	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x3eacbf…
08-09 11:56:39	will revoluts valuation hit low 95b by august 31 20260731174621604	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x8f136c…
08-09 11:56:25	will revoluts valuation hit low 95b by august 31 20260731174621604	No	BUY	66	87¢	$57	0x19e79e…
08-09 11:48:09	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044256	No	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0xd3c11c…
08-09 11:33:07	will paulo dybala attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630266	No	SELL	346	94¢	$325	0xeb2074…
08-09 08:02:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x9323b0…
08-09 08:00:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x676e78…
08-09 07:56:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x0eafa2…
08-09 07:52:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0x4ca925…
08-09 07:51:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xba9f68…
08-09 07:40:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x1fba49…
08-09 07:39:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xa59cf2…
08-09 07:18:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x6fcb3d…
08-09 07:17:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x94d460…
08-09 07:16:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xfbc1de…
08-09 07:14:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x2a08ae…
08-09 07:09:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xd5003e…
08-09 07:05:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xdbfd99…
08-09 07:04:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x872229…
08-09 07:01:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x958ca1…
08-09 06:56:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xa66cdd…
08-09 06:55:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x05b203…
08-09 06:54:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3ce32f…
08-09 06:52:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x0e8627…
08-09 06:48:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x9733e5…
08-09 06:47:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xbbcd57…
08-09 06:46:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x654baf…
08-09 06:44:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xb34fd0…
08-09 06:39:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xabfec1…
08-09 06:38:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x37d741…
08-09 06:37:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x7ca206…
08-09 06:36:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xbc4995…
08-09 06:35:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0xe3770a…
08-09 06:34:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0xe53327…
08-09 02:40:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x468efb…
08-09 01:33:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	53	96¢	$51	0x29acd6…
08-09 00:41:03	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x67bafd…
08-09 00:35:58	will wayne rooney attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630265	Yes	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x599944…