Fortunate-Orchestra — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

19.2%

Resolved

Trades

334

lifetime

Volume

$9.52K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-26 17:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Sports

51% 20% $-1

Other

30% 0% $-0

Politics

13% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	16	$372	196	196	+0	open	—	02-20 11:41
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$315	163	163	+0	open	—	02-21 05:52
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$301	160	160	+0	Yes	$-0	03-15 08:24
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	10	$296	153	153	+0	No	$-1	03-06 04:11
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	6	$278	140	140	+0	open	—	01-19 08:11
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	9	$277	147	147	+0	open	—	02-21 05:42
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	15	$274	141	141	+0	open	—	02-01 04:58
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	6	$265	136	136	+0	open	—	02-12 11:12
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	6	$264	136	136	+0	open	—	02-12 11:06
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$252	130	130	+0	open	—	02-14 14:09
will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	9	$238	127	127	+0	open	—	02-20 11:35
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	8	$234	127	127	+0	open	—	02-07 00:10
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$210	109	109	+0	No	+$0	03-19 10:27
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$190	98	98	+0	open	—	02-07 00:13
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$190	98	98	-0	open	—	02-16 14:04
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$186	95	95	+0	open	—	02-12 11:05
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$183	98	98	+0	open	—	02-14 13:58
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	4	$180	96	96	+0	open	—	02-16 14:01
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$159	82	82	+0	open	—	03-17 04:25
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$155	80	80	+0	open	—	02-20 11:43
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$153	81	81	+0	open	—	03-19 00:17
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	6	$138	72	72	+0	open	—	02-06 00:17
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	4	$131	69	69	+0	open	—	03-12 19:40
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	4	$123	65	65	+0	open	—	03-14 21:28
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$117	61	61	+0	open	—	01-11 23:16
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	2	$114	62	62	+0	open	—	01-15 05:39
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$111	58	58	+0	open	—	02-06 00:01
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	5	$104	53	53	+0	open	—	02-20 11:43
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	2	$99	52	52	+0	open	—	02-02 04:29
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$97	51	51	+0	open	—	02-09 12:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 17:30:16	Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xce0781…
07-26 12:25:42	Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1ce33c…
06-20 04:12:58	Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x065fa2…
06-19 23:09:20	Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$27	0xb08e59…
06-07 03:04:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	37	90¢	$34	0x177159…
06-06 22:01:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	37	91¢	$34	0x2b0f8b…
03-20 01:18:01	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x6dd77a…
03-19 17:41:11	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x45e9dd…
03-19 16:54:01	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x4c4ecc…
03-19 10:43:57	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x2d681f…
03-19 10:27:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$41	0x922ac6…
03-19 01:30:37	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xfc28db…
03-19 00:17:03	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	41	95¢	$39	0xfb46f2…
03-18 18:32:01	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xf32d82…
03-18 11:25:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0x339c4d…
03-18 05:14:59	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0xf6ffb4…
03-17 04:25:47	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x8e41ab…
03-17 00:01:23	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0xc49f2b…
03-16 23:50:31	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$34	0x4d9086…
03-16 18:16:53	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$34	0x714fc8…
03-16 09:36:25	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0xc62003…
03-16 01:30:47	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x3507fc…
03-15 08:24:35	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	42	95¢	$39	0x3bf1ba…
03-15 00:03:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0x87701a…
03-14 21:28:31	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	30	94¢	$29	0x8ff7a2…
03-14 14:39:35	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	30	94¢	$29	0xa5af98…
03-13 21:04:55	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x4cf338…
03-13 09:25:17	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	33	96¢	$31	0x373ae1…
03-13 02:57:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x8fb4b7…
03-12 20:22:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x75000d…
03-12 19:40:47	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0x727d58…
03-12 13:29:47	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$35	0xa8844a…
03-11 20:28:43	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x2509e5…
03-11 15:09:39	will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0xe132fa…
03-11 03:01:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0xf6055d…
03-10 19:50:53	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x283335…
03-10 19:31:35	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x111e25…
03-10 11:24:51	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xb96882…
03-09 20:02:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0xf63ead…
03-09 12:34:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x9bc3fa…
03-08 07:50:53	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0xde317d…
03-08 03:14:21	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xe364a8…
03-08 02:59:17	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$36	0x91ff2e…
03-07 21:13:25	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$36	0x23fdac…
03-06 23:16:15	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x3fb758…
03-06 16:02:51	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xa6e4e2…
03-06 14:03:43	will iran strike israel on march 4	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0xe6ce94…
03-06 09:00:17	will iran strike israel on march 4	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x5ba9d6…
03-06 04:11:11	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$30	0xb8678a…
03-04 20:44:57	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xa71d2d…
03-04 20:42:43	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x0fb429…
03-04 16:42:25	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0x993aaa…
02-22 12:48:12	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0xa218a1…
02-22 12:45:14	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x091938…
02-22 12:40:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x4c9f4a…
02-21 05:53:40	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xb7027c…
02-21 05:53:04	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xef8cf1…
02-21 05:52:30	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x00e0de…
02-21 05:51:58	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x8f398f…
02-21 05:51:32	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x708ffd…
02-21 05:48:54	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x90c9f1…
02-21 05:47:08	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x301ae4…
02-21 05:46:32	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xbff36e…
02-21 05:42:02	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0xa445ff…
02-21 05:41:16	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0xa4c4a8…
02-21 05:39:44	will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xf304da…
02-21 05:39:04	will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xe4d7f9…
02-21 05:37:12	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x8415c0…
02-21 05:36:32	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6a1f11…
02-21 05:36:10	bitcoin above 66k on february 21	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x24f1d9…
02-21 05:35:36	bitcoin above 66k on february 21	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbbe839…
02-20 11:57:52	will slovakia win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x980fbe…
02-20 11:57:14	will slovakia win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xe42c58…
02-20 11:56:56	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0xed0c97…
02-20 11:56:22	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0xb2f168…
02-20 11:54:16	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0xe13fde…
02-20 11:53:40	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x33070f…
02-20 11:49:08	will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	No	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0xfa07c3…
02-20 11:48:32	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xdc84ad…
02-20 11:46:12	will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x3e7265…
02-20 11:45:24	will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x9c8b25…
02-20 11:43:54	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x7165fe…
02-20 11:43:30	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x5e7e81…
02-20 11:43:06	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xeeeed1…
02-20 11:41:30	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x804f29…
02-20 11:41:12	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x620c86…
02-20 11:40:18	Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x033c85…
02-20 11:39:28	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x9e8053…
02-20 11:39:22	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x631221…
02-20 11:39:00	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x0b50f5…
02-20 11:35:36	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	SELL	43	93¢	$40	0xd5fd42…
02-20 11:35:12	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xdf8351…
02-20 11:34:42	bitcoin above 70k on february 20	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x4715e1…
02-20 11:34:22	bitcoin above 70k on february 20	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x154afc…
02-20 11:32:06	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x389240…
02-19 07:49:48	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	SELL	24	93¢	$22	0x15ffa1…
02-19 07:49:46	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xf7e799…
02-19 07:49:26	will finland win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	24	94¢	$22	0x59d74e…
02-19 07:49:10	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$44	0xee5cb9…
02-19 07:48:50	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$44	0xee5716…