Cavernous-Threat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

43.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$67

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 07-01 06:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

53% 33% $-6

Politics

33% — —

Tech

8% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+19	$10	96¢	$18	+$8	06-12 10:12
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	+11	$1	6¢	$1	$-0	06-12 09:50
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	+8	$1	8¢	$1	$-0	06-12 10:04
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$1	4¢	$1	$-0	06-22 14:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	06-12 10:12
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$5	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 06:43
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$5	11	0	+11	TheMongolz	$-5	05-10 17:08
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-09 20:45
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	1	$5	9	0	+9	Spirit	+$4	05-10 09:36
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	05-09 20:25
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$5	9	0	+9	Aurora Gaming	$-5	05-10 17:08
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$5	8	0	+8	Spirit	+$3	05-10 17:08
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	2	$4	21	0	+21	open	—	06-18 14:06
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	2	$2	8	0	+8	Spirit	$-2	05-10 09:17
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	06-12 09:56
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	06-22 14:58
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	05-09 20:23
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	06-12 09:52
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-13 14:17
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-09 20:05
Will Trump's remarks not air?	1	$1	21	0	+21	open	—	05-19 10:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-09 20:29
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	05-09 20:06
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	06-12 09:50
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	1	$1	2	0	+2	MOUZ	$-1	05-09 20:49
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	06-15 19:23
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	06-22 14:56
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	1	$1	7	0	+7	open	—	06-12 10:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	05-09 20:22
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	1	$1	8	0	+8	open	—	06-12 10:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 06:43:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xa234e8…
06-22 14:58:14	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd00cf4…
06-22 14:56:46	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7720f9…
06-18 14:06:11	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xae6818…
06-15 19:23:09	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xbc4611…
06-14 17:56:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9849c0…
06-12 10:13:39	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb62260…
06-12 10:12:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x781758…
06-12 10:10:48	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb4e7d6…
06-12 10:04:55	Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xad0e15…
06-12 09:56:06	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x24e48d…
06-12 09:52:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x685da5…
06-12 09:50:28	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x65f7b0…
05-19 10:21:30	Will Trump's remarks not air?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xf4854f…
05-13 14:17:35	Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5041be…
05-10 17:08:54	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Spirit	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xc657d5…
05-10 17:08:40	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	G2	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3eb3b8…
05-10 17:08:06	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	PARIVISION	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xed772e…
05-10 09:36:17	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x603260…
05-10 09:17:51	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc5633d…
05-09 20:50:08	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	TheMongolz	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7e75cd…
05-09 20:49:26	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	G2	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x411775…
05-09 20:45:44	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0afb1f…
05-09 20:29:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe21eb6…
05-09 20:25:38	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x009704…
05-09 20:23:50	Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb82132…
05-09 20:22:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x2bbebb…
05-09 20:06:53	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x07223b…
05-09 20:05:25	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x893567…