Noteworthy-Spear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.1%

Resolved

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$2.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 06-10 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

84% 60% +$1

Other

14% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	10	$280	147	147	+0	open	—	05-14 06:55
iran closes its airspace by june 15	11	$212	158	158	+0	open	—	06-07 14:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	13	$195	140	140	+0	open	—	06-03 14:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	14	$169	200	200	+0	open	—	05-29 18:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	6	$162	85	85	+0	No	+$0	05-05 04:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	7	$140	178	178	+0	open	—	05-18 18:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	5	$135	70	70	+0	No	+$1	05-02 14:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	8	$130	69	69	+0	open	—	06-09 13:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	4	$117	61	61	+0	No	+$0	05-10 07:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	13	$89	299	299	+0	open	—	05-31 19:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	4	$75	79	79	+0	open	—	05-20 19:49
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	8	$75	98	98	+0	open	—	04-23 02:14
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	2	$75	38	38	+0	open	—	05-25 14:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	7	$73	150	150	+0	No	$-0	05-09 03:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$71	80	80	+0	open	—	05-26 18:29
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	4	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	04-23 14:41
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	2	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	06-06 06:10
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	05-25 23:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	3	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	06-06 10:53
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$46	24	24	+0	open	—	05-27 00:15
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	10	$43	250	250	+0	open	—	04-28 01:53
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	5	$37	54	91	-37	open	—	06-01 09:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$34	35	0	+35	open	—	05-25 03:54
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	04-18 15:33
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$27	14	14	+0	open	—	05-21 12:24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	3	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	05-14 20:47
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	3	$8	110	108	+2	open	—	04-30 16:23
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$8	70	70	+0	open	—	04-22 07:44
israel closes its airspace by june 9	8	$8	212	212	+0	open	—	06-10 01:31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	8	$6	108	108	+0	open	—	05-20 14:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 01:31:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0xd42046…
06-10 01:31:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0xcfc87d…
06-10 01:31:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x7fd0ae…
06-10 01:31:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x14d348…
06-10 00:04:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0xcaeaf9…
06-09 13:32:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x6fbe58…
06-09 11:15:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x178a2c…
06-09 03:24:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xc37a01…
06-09 03:23:19	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	87	3¢	$3	0xe988fc…
06-09 01:31:18	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x0efc9e…
06-08 04:03:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0xe3a1bc…
06-08 04:03:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0xd2d6b4…
06-08 04:03:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x72c237…
06-07 23:56:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x75b3b0…
06-07 23:56:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xc9fd55…
06-07 23:56:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x38528c…
06-07 14:22:16	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0xfbc443…
06-07 12:55:31	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	39	91¢	$35	0x926174…
06-07 05:36:31	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	31	92¢	$28	0xa6a2d8…
06-07 05:36:31	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x01b82a…
06-07 02:35:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xaf0256…
06-07 02:35:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x66571e…
06-07 02:31:30	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	38	91¢	$35	0x2d9ec4…
06-07 00:36:46	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	38	91¢	$35	0x7fb2ea…
06-06 10:53:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xd93972…
06-06 10:53:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x635eb2…
06-06 06:12:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xb6f54b…
06-06 06:10:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x199d91…
06-06 04:19:46	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x691e1e…
06-05 09:38:09	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	46	10¢	$5	0xb4d62a…
06-05 06:39:03	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x2df356…
06-05 06:39:03	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x09515e…
06-03 14:45:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xf372f8…
06-03 14:45:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x5d0731…
06-03 09:34:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x90b698…
06-03 04:31:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0x6356b1…
06-03 04:31:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x3db300…
06-03 02:37:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0xc5c5c9…
06-03 02:37:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x2a2fd5…
06-03 02:37:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x28c5ae…
06-02 18:21:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x6c38d4…
06-02 15:54:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x123cd8…
06-02 07:45:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x768142…
06-02 07:45:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x3f2dd9…
06-02 05:00:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xe59521…
06-02 03:51:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	SELL	54	3¢	$2	0x54b7ac…
06-01 23:32:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	54	5¢	$3	0x97c5b9…
06-01 09:30:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	1¢	$1	0x5a3b7c…
06-01 07:00:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xf18c95…
06-01 07:00:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0xb22162…
06-01 07:00:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x85890e…
05-31 19:33:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x60dc0d…
05-31 17:48:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0xee5a3b…
05-31 17:48:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x5b3198…
05-31 17:48:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x54ffc6…
05-31 17:44:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x31b276…
05-30 19:40:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	35	4¢	$2	0xd2320c…
05-30 19:40:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	67	5¢	$3	0xbe6c44…
05-30 14:16:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	106	4¢	$4	0x82fb26…
05-29 18:41:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x2aff7b…
05-29 18:41:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x514456…
05-29 18:20:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x09064c…
05-29 15:51:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xc0f20b…
05-29 15:50:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	6¢	$3	0x6eb4b1…
05-29 15:02:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0x6499d9…
05-29 15:02:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	7¢	$3	0x2eaca4…
05-29 11:11:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x16e6d9…
05-29 07:09:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x08688b…
05-29 05:00:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	64	4¢	$3	0xf23f45…
05-29 05:00:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x34b653…
05-29 02:27:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0xba77de…
05-28 20:22:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xab836b…
05-28 19:13:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xbd3b02…
05-28 02:44:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xf96fae…
05-28 02:44:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc65454…
05-27 23:49:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xab95d7…
05-27 09:41:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	37	92¢	$34	0x9900a6…
05-27 09:13:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xc8ae5b…
05-27 09:13:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x4ff74d…
05-27 00:15:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x5bc00a…
05-27 00:15:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x099e53…
05-26 22:23:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x0b0afa…
05-26 18:29:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xda3f49…
05-26 18:29:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x759162…
05-26 15:25:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xc6fd54…
05-25 23:20:42	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0xfa897b…
05-25 23:20:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xbf619e…
05-25 23:09:04	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0xd42e04…
05-25 14:40:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0xb5d07e…
05-25 12:19:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xc4a699…
05-25 03:54:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x91cb3d…
05-21 12:24:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x1a4621…
05-21 09:10:10	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x25a6cb…
05-21 06:41:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x2fdfee…
05-21 06:41:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x0359a5…
05-21 02:29:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xa1f722…
05-21 02:29:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xe1949b…
05-21 02:29:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xa7f240…
05-20 19:49:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0xd61f1a…
05-20 19:31:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0xd86ba7…