Pessimistic-Prisoner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.63K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

1,178

Trades

1,696

lifetime

Volume

$315.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-25 14:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 181 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% +$3,622

Other

0% 50% +$10

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down january 15 8am et	2	$3.0K	1,788	1,788	+0	Down	+$597	01-15 14:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 11:00 UTC	2	$2.6K	1,656	1,632	+24	Down	+$634	03-24 11:12
bitcoin up or down july 4 2026 4pm et	3	$2.5K	1,649	1,649	+0	Down	+$783	07-04 20:59
bitcoin up or down february 8 10am et	3	$2.0K	1,360	1,360	+0	Down	+$737	02-08 16:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 11:15 UTC	3	$2.0K	1,426	1,426	+0	Down	+$492	08-08 11:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 15:05 UTC	3	$1.8K	1,205	1,205	+0	Down	+$565	06-05 15:09
bitcoin up or down february 7 2am et	2	$1.8K	972	972	+0	Down	+$176	02-07 08:34
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-21 16:00 UTC	3	$1.7K	1,359	1,359	+0	Down	+$483	08-21 18:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 19:25 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,014	1,014	+0	Down	+$432	06-11 19:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 20:05 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,111	1,111	+0	Up	+$638	06-30 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 21:15 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,061	1,061	+0	Up	+$528	09-14 21:19
solana up or down january 13 9am et	3	$1.5K	1,336	1,336	+0	Down	+$1,123	01-13 15:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-07 20:45 UTC	4	$1.5K	1,038	1,006	+31	Up	+$313	04-07 21:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 09:10 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,027	1,027	+0	Down	+$525	07-05 09:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 18:50 UTC	2	$1.5K	1,015	999	+16	Up	+$508	03-24 18:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 18:45 UTC	2	$1.4K	946	914	+32	Up	+$437	04-12 18:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 13:00 UTC	1	$1.4K	2,546	0	+2,546	Down	-$1,395	02-12 12:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 18:00 UTC	2	$1.4K	861	849	+12	Down	+$320	03-23 18:14
bitcoin up or down july 3 2026 4am et	2	$1.3K	958	958	+0	Down	+$578	07-03 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$1.3K	866	866	+0	Down	+$393	05-08 11:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$1.3K	878	878	+0	Down	+$417	05-07 13:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-11 13:45 UTC	2	$1.3K	879	849	+30	Down	+$406	04-11 14:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 10:55 UTC	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	Down	+$331	07-17 10:58
bitcoin up or down august 21 2026 3pm et	2	$1.2K	934	934	+0	Down	+$265	08-21 19:57
bitcoin up or down february 11 5am et	2	$1.2K	819	819	+0	Down	+$419	02-11 11:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 12:25 UTC	2	$1.2K	838	838	+0	Up	+$456	07-05 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 21:20 UTC	2	$1.2K	821	808	+13	Up	+$413	03-23 21:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 16:35 UTC	4	$1.2K	826	826	+0	Down	+$340	07-12 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 09:35 UTC	3	$1.2K	913	876	+37	Up	+$388	04-12 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	5	$1.2K	1,277	1,277	+0	Down	+$170	05-08 12:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 14:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	130	46¢	$60	0xeb6ac2…
10-19 15:34:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	520	56¢	$293	0x8a502a…
10-19 13:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	293	51¢	$150	0x2b8896…
10-18 20:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	399	47¢	$187	0xbe03c3…
10-18 20:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	368	33¢	$122	0x049c47…
10-18 16:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	179	98¢	$175	0x16bf69…
10-18 16:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x93adfe…
10-18 14:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	271	97¢	$264	0x429b88…
10-18 14:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	271	55¢	$149	0xd2ff21…
10-17 13:19:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x869186…
10-17 13:16:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	115	44¢	$51	0xc4e825…
10-16 18:28:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	190	51¢	$97	0xb0caf5…
10-12 16:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	223	45¢	$100	0x37d058…
10-11 06:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	154	52¢	$80	0xa24a75…
10-08 18:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	377	99¢	$373	0xe0dc82…
10-08 18:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	377	51¢	$193	0x1ac309…
10-08 06:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	142	97¢	$138	0x3f4427…
10-08 06:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	142	59¢	$84	0x38af37…
10-07 18:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	157	51¢	$80	0x38a283…
10-07 13:03:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	698	98¢	$683	0xd2aabb…
10-07 12:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	698	52¢	$362	0xd70e3b…
10-07 07:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	378	99¢	$374	0x894c6f…
10-07 07:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	378	53¢	$202	0x411ff5…
10-06 20:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	221	95¢	$210	0x117619…
10-06 20:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	221	51¢	$113	0x68291a…
10-06 20:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	147	81¢	$119	0x666998…
10-06 20:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	147	51¢	$75	0xc75d3a…
10-06 20:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	101	78¢	$79	0x9517d6…
10-06 20:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	101	45¢	$45	0x1eeca8…
10-06 20:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0x0252e0…
10-06 19:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	47	46¢	$22	0xa694e8…
10-06 19:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	46	51¢	$23	0xc5a61c…
10-06 19:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	46	40¢	$18	0x2a9294…
10-06 19:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	353	57¢	$200	0x5eab10…
10-06 16:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	189	79¢	$149	0xa44e63…
10-06 16:52:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x5b25ea…
10-03 11:51:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	32	51¢	$16	0x804ab9…
10-03 11:51:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	705	48¢	$338	0x1a544c…
10-03 11:45:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	633	52¢	$327	0x63488d…
10-03 11:45:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	160	54¢	$87	0xab6e70…
10-03 11:25:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	460	54¢	$250	0x22445b…
10-01 20:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET	Down	SELL	769	82¢	$632	0x64942a…
10-01 20:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	769	38¢	$289	0x47a7d5…
10-01 19:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x6a7feb…
10-01 19:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	463	89¢	$410	0x8f3647…
10-01 19:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	463	60¢	$278	0x8f3195…
10-01 14:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	348	93¢	$324	0x018848…
10-01 14:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	348	46¢	$160	0x291ea2…
10-01 12:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	459	46¢	$209	0x9a524b…
10-01 12:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	250	88¢	$220	0x4f3ae4…
10-01 12:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	250	51¢	$129	0x7dcf6b…
09-30 20:07:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	532	56¢	$296	0x544e99…
09-30 20:03:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	370	21¢	$79	0x413589…
09-30 20:02:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 20:00 UTC	Down	SELL	371	78¢	$289	0xc8c70b…
09-30 20:00:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	371	53¢	$195	0xa778ef…
09-30 19:56:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 19:55 UTC	Up	SELL	237	84¢	$199	0x2a41f9…
09-30 19:55:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	237	55¢	$130	0xe1798d…
09-30 15:40:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	433	46¢	$200	0x83ebe3…
09-29 11:29:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x1d25e9…
09-29 11:29:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	595	95¢	$566	0x8cf194…
09-29 11:24:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x6f7175…
09-29 11:24:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	414	59¢	$246	0x8d706b…
09-29 11:14:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0x6a6a1c…
09-27 12:50:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	407	49¢	$200	0x16acb2…
09-27 12:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	662	91¢	$605	0xf2b577…
09-27 12:35:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 12:35 UTC	Up	BUY	662	58¢	$383	0x1a4c5e…
09-27 12:33:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	432	92¢	$397	0x9f1300…
09-27 12:28:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	432	50¢	$217	0x17c940…
09-27 11:17:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 11:15 UTC	Down	SELL	382	97¢	$370	0x0149c7…
09-27 11:14:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	382	52¢	$198	0x238792…
09-27 07:27:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	193	50¢	$97	0xf9ec74…
09-26 17:54:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	143	53¢	$75	0xf7512d…
09-26 17:39:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:35 UTC	Up	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0x998615…
09-26 17:33:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x24cb69…
09-26 12:00:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 11:45 UTC	Down	SELL	347	99¢	$344	0x43d046…
09-26 11:52:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	347	42¢	$147	0x4d4aaa…
09-21 20:20:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	236	43¢	$101	0x82a93c…
09-21 20:09:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	132	53¢	$70	0x541a80…
09-21 20:06:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 20:05 UTC	Down	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0xf8beb8…
09-20 10:47:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	428	46¢	$197	0x338c35…
09-20 10:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	348	60¢	$210	0xae5f59…
09-20 10:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	348	51¢	$178	0xfaeccd…
09-20 09:04:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	56	57¢	$32	0x1113eb…
09-20 09:04:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xbe52fb…
09-20 09:00:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0x70d6d3…
09-20 08:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x7e950c…
09-20 08:57:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	18	53¢	$10	0x188546…
09-18 20:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x51e55d…
09-18 19:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x8e7273…
09-18 18:49:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x2ebf97…
09-16 16:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	624	54¢	$336	0xa4cd66…
09-16 16:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	117	36¢	$42	0x9a01e8…
09-16 16:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	117	57¢	$67	0xa23498…
09-16 16:47:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	381	99¢	$377	0xd1dc9a…
09-16 16:44:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	381	49¢	$187	0xed33fd…
09-16 16:34:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:30 UTC	Down	SELL	195	99¢	$193	0xeb271a…
09-16 16:32:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	195	53¢	$104	0x2ab1b8…
09-16 07:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	208	91¢	$190	0xf28274…
09-16 07:52:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	208	53¢	$110	0x4d522f…
09-15 17:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	723	54¢	$387	0xa4b0e0…