Improbable-Direction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.4%

Resolved

Trades

301

lifetime

Volume

$302

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-16 08:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

39% 0% $-0

Politics

31% 0% $-0

Crypto

26% 50% +$0

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	02-26 07:06
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	02-05 09:16
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	8	$8	4	4	-0	open	—	01-14 03:26
bitcoin above 68k on april 9	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-09 03:00
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-12 08:39
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-07 06:05
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-28 08:22
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-26 07:05
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-06 08:21
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-16 06:24
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:48
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-13 09:10
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-25 05:20
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 07:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 07:33
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 06:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-02 07:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:58
bitcoin above 70k on april 10	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-10 03:45
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-11 06:33
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-17 03:40
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$-0	03-09 06:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 06:33
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-25 06:46
highest temperature in toronto on april 3 2026 9corhigher	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:56
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 06:04
bitcoin above 66k on march 10	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 04:14
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-21 08:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:57
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 07:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 08:31:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xee64aa…
06-16 08:30:16	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in june	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb5c046…
06-16 08:10:51	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc6a8c7…
06-16 08:04:31	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in june	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xce7a83…
06-15 07:32:28	will solana dip to 50 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x97b704…
06-15 07:30:58	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0277cc…
06-13 09:10:27	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x5ae9e4…
06-13 08:55:37	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x5338e3…
06-12 08:39:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb74827…
06-12 08:38:07	ruben dias 20260609175357515	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0eaeec…
06-12 08:32:15	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x468de2…
06-12 08:27:55	ruben dias 20260609175357515	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xca9b63…
06-11 08:53:33	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf46da5…
06-11 08:47:03	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6d67df…
06-09 04:11:55	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x487f0d…
06-09 04:11:12	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x64659a…
06-09 03:55:57	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x08e064…
06-09 03:50:18	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7f3766…
06-08 03:35:42	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7451c1…
06-08 03:33:40	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x872533…
06-08 03:30:10	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x74d4bf…
06-08 03:26:07	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbaf760…
06-06 08:21:40	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xda1b31…
06-06 08:20:28	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x1a3935…
06-06 08:08:43	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa8f050…
06-06 08:03:52	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xad0e10…
06-05 07:10:15	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x45d82a…
06-05 07:08:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xad2652…
06-05 06:55:30	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x60c0c5…
06-05 06:48:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6f4460…
06-04 07:54:27	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 1 7 2026	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xb43364…
06-04 07:53:24	will jd vance attend nato summit	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x75bf74…
06-04 07:42:51	will bitcoin dip to 60k june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x391b8c…
06-04 07:35:12	will jd vance attend nato summit	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x7499c6…
06-03 07:58:52	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xdbab69…
06-03 07:57:37	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfa117c…
06-03 07:50:13	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xaabdc2…
06-03 07:45:54	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x01dd37…
06-02 07:06:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x498b13…
06-02 07:05:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x7cd0c7…
06-02 06:56:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe6178f…
06-02 06:48:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe325e0…
05-30 07:45:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x770583…
05-29 06:40:13	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xe56d40…
05-28 07:44:01	JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x21e051…
05-28 07:30:41	JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb599b…
05-27 09:07:21	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb439cb…
05-27 08:45:43	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x210e64…
05-25 06:46:33	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5dce18…
05-25 06:45:32	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xbdb73e…
05-25 06:35:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8a9148…
05-25 06:32:14	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x440460…
05-23 07:13:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb79cae…
05-23 07:05:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x333dc6…
05-21 08:21:57	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb7a21a…
05-21 08:21:10	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xcb9ad7…
05-21 08:13:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa821b3…
05-21 08:10:40	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9e9185…
05-18 08:49:14	Will Trump say "China" this week?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x01761f…
05-18 08:47:37	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x17408c…
05-18 08:41:44	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xddb6f0…
05-18 08:38:00	Will Trump say "China" this week?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x259743…
05-16 07:24:31	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1faf1b…
05-16 07:04:50	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf0a823…
05-15 06:53:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0xb17871…
05-15 06:39:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xee73de…
05-14 07:10:22	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0ae909…
05-14 06:58:35	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa8b187…
05-13 08:20:49	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe0dead…
05-13 08:05:48	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x86aa79…
05-12 07:40:11	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd44dde…
05-12 07:37:14	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x23747f…
05-11 06:58:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc599e8…
05-11 06:57:47	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x92a26d…
05-11 06:47:17	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x00445b…
05-11 06:35:07	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x6ca7b7…
05-09 06:53:35	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x83f8d2…
05-09 06:39:52	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x12b868…
05-08 08:24:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5fb508…
05-08 08:24:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8fe6e8…
05-08 08:16:07	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5841b1…
05-08 08:11:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc3004d…
05-06 06:58:00	Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf32786…
05-06 06:47:14	Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x52c681…
05-04 06:20:34	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xcc06a3…
04-30 07:33:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd2387c…
04-30 07:21:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x079789…
04-29 07:36:24	Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6a30a7…
04-29 07:16:02	Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf86027…
04-28 04:38:16	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xcedf9e…
04-28 04:37:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa71dc0…
04-28 04:19:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe5c769…
04-28 04:13:58	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa8c6e9…
04-27 06:08:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xc8d20a…
04-27 06:06:24	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xee9730…
04-27 04:37:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf9508d…
04-27 04:34:28	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x056cec…
04-25 06:34:50	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x982218…
04-25 06:33:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x641227…
04-25 06:28:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe7aa56…