Miserly-Verdict — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$102

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

68.7%

Resolved

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-16 22:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

54% 65% +$991

Politics

42% 38% -$1,014

Crypto

4% 50% -$118

Sports

0% 50% +$39

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+808	$21	2¢	$15	-$6	05-26 06:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
italy nordio reform referendum passes	16	$2.5K	1,963	1,963	+0	No	+$682	03-23 15:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$1.6K	2,606	0	+2,606	Yes	-$1,560	06-14 22:49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$1.2K	2,222	2,222	+0	Yes	+$678	04-08 09:50
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	5	$909	1,789	1,789	+0	No	-$323	04-28 23:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	3	$657	562	562	+0	No	+$354	05-24 14:19
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$602	673	667	+7	No	+$245	03-29 20:41
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	6	$599	520	520	+0	No	+$379	04-10 22:45
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$498	600	0	+600	No	+$102	05-06 10:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	5	$414	300	300	+0	Yes	+$6	05-13 19:24
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	13	$355	1,038	2,000	-962	Yes	+$125	04-23 19:16
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	9	$224	1,302	0	+1,302	Yes	-$224	04-28 23:42
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	2	$208	317	0	+317	No	-$208	04-24 23:52
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	3	$196	300	0	+300	Yes	+$104	04-12 12:59
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$195	200	200	+0	Yes	+$47	04-13 18:35
uel not por1 2026 04 16 total 2pt5	3	$191	200	197	+3	Under	+$18	04-16 20:00
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	8	$178	561	0	+561	Yes	-$178	05-28 11:35
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$136	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-16 21:10
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$117	791	0	+791	Yes	-$117	01-17 11:25
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$107	200	0	+200	Yes	+$93	04-29 19:09
tur tra iba 2026 04 19 tra	2	$101	10,100	0	+10,100	No	-$101	04-19 18:59
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	1	$77	100	0	+100	No	-$77	04-12 00:53
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?	1	$75	100	0	+100	Yes	+$25	01-08 18:16
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 9 15	1	$63	168	0	+168	Yes	-$63	06-08 14:03
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	7	$59	200	0	+200	No	-$59	04-12 01:37
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$54	100	0	+100	No	-$54	04-13 20:22
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$49	75	0	+75	No	+$25	01-15 18:37
sud rec1 slo 2026 04 08 rec1	6	$49	60	0	+60	No	+$11	04-08 21:40
por ama spo 2026 04 11 btts	2	$38	25	25	+0	No	+$12	04-11 23:50
cs2 ts7 9z 2026 06 13	1	$27	50	0	+50	Spirit	-$27	06-13 22:01
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$24	63	0	+63	Yes	+$39	05-30 16:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 22:40:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	2,250	0¢	$9	0x41ff09…
06-14 22:49:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	963	27¢	$260	0x62667a…
06-14 17:06:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,643	79¢	$1,300	0x3284a0…
06-13 22:01:52	cs2 ts7 9z 2026 06 13	9z	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xa52216…
06-08 14:03:31	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 9 15	No	BUY	168	38¢	$63	0x30cfa1…
05-30 16:27:39	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	63	38¢	$24	0xd5d82d…
05-28 11:35:04	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	140	25¢	$35	0x833bd8…
05-28 11:34:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0xc4c638…
05-26 06:57:53	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x9470e1…
05-26 06:57:41	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0x4f0334…
05-26 06:57:27	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0x6723a1…
05-26 06:57:15	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	96	3¢	$2	0x3ca05d…
05-26 06:57:02	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	84	3¢	$2	0xbadf70…
05-26 03:42:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	92	40¢	$37	0x9f4be0…
05-26 03:42:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x513868…
05-26 03:42:51	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	42	40¢	$17	0xe569e9…
05-25 22:15:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	33	40¢	$13	0x817b0c…
05-25 22:01:53	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x3b4ff5…
05-25 19:48:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	61	38¢	$23	0x6ff77b…
05-24 19:04:11	Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5336f7…
05-24 14:19:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	562	90¢	$506	0xa181da…
05-23 22:23:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x09a8ed…
05-23 22:23:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	560	27¢	$151	0xad2e3e…
05-16 21:10:58	Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x44e6d0…
05-13 19:24:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	300	70¢	$210	0x306ed9…
05-13 11:06:35	Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x35ef3c…
05-11 12:31:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xe06a14…
05-11 12:31:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xbbd613…
05-11 12:29:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	250	68¢	$170	0x9a2913…
05-11 12:26:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x8fc11f…
05-06 10:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x377aad…
05-06 10:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xf51681…
05-06 10:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xba91db…
05-06 10:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3a22d4…
05-06 10:49:04	Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	600	83¢	$498	0xfcacd4…
05-01 17:47:38	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	300	5¢	$14	0x76debd…
04-29 19:09:50	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0xaab393…
04-29 19:09:50	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	81	54¢	$43	0x555435…
04-29 19:09:50	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	53	54¢	$28	0x3c5bb9…
04-29 19:07:36	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	54	54¢	$29	0x1f36eb…
04-28 23:42:14	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	180	27¢	$48	0xa15f40…
04-28 23:37:50	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	122	27¢	$33	0xadba0a…
04-28 23:33:28	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,782	16¢	$291	0xc412f3…
04-28 23:27:18	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xa6ec33…
04-28 23:10:56	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,094	35¢	$383	0xe39245…
04-28 23:09:24	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	395	34¢	$134	0xacfb46…
04-28 21:31:30	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	33¢	$99	0xb4af26…
04-27 03:40:44	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x142697…
04-27 03:31:24	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xa92547…
04-27 03:29:20	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	694	14¢	$99	0xec06de…
04-27 03:23:58	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	79	14¢	$11	0xde0209…
04-27 02:59:38	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x9a9821…
04-27 02:58:24	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x65f5a2…
04-27 02:58:18	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	67	14¢	$9	0xd40f0b…
04-24 23:52:08	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x2b607b…
04-23 19:16:20	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	916	12¢	$110	0xc00003…
04-23 19:15:26	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x1ade9e…
04-23 02:30:10	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0x663b1e…
04-23 02:29:38	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0xff9770…
04-23 00:46:42	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x21066f…
04-23 00:17:18	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0x2cf2f3…
04-23 00:16:56	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	500	12¢	$60	0x9c6030…
04-22 23:47:40	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	358	12¢	$43	0x9a3d90…
04-22 10:07:52	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	542	11¢	$60	0xe7bc99…
04-22 10:06:20	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0xe8524f…
04-22 10:03:56	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	432	11¢	$48	0x66825a…
04-22 10:01:50	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xa711eb…
04-22 10:00:38	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0x04c497…
04-20 19:35:26	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	300	66¢	$198	0x7bdb52…
04-19 18:59:28	tur tra iba 2026 04 19 tra	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0x001ad6…
04-19 18:59:12	tur tra iba 2026 04 19 tra	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x19f9d0…
04-16 23:17:44	Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	67	24¢	$16	0x7010db…
04-16 23:17:40	Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $140M and $155M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	94	17¢	$16	0x81ed65…
04-16 23:17:36	Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $155M and $170M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	114	14¢	$16	0xea9da2…
04-16 20:00:36	uel not por1 2026 04 16 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	149	52¢	$77	0x2f77ee…
04-16 19:59:42	uel not por1 2026 04 16 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	48	53¢	$25	0x687788…
04-16 19:39:16	uel not por1 2026 04 16 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	200	44¢	$88	0x2c7077…
04-13 20:22:25	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	91	54¢	$49	0xedbf9a…
04-13 20:18:45	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x46fb65…
04-13 18:35:29	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	41	60¢	$25	0x78e3b5…
04-13 17:07:11	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	38	60¢	$23	0x0de7d6…
04-13 17:03:57	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	121	60¢	$73	0x9d2168…
04-13 16:14:25	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	42	37¢	$15	0xc856db…
04-13 16:14:23	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	158	37¢	$59	0xfa4420…
04-12 12:59:17	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	90	65¢	$58	0x501d8f…
04-12 09:30:01	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xa7dc19…
04-12 01:37:23	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x94124b…
04-12 01:31:21	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	209	65¢	$137	0x76a882…
04-12 01:24:39	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x2e871d…
04-12 01:24:39	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x225a91…
04-12 01:24:39	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$2	0x11bec1…
04-12 00:53:19	will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xb77c00…
04-12 00:15:27	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	29¢	$18	0xfd077a…
04-12 00:15:27	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0x276453…
04-12 00:15:17	Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	94	29¢	$28	0x8f733a…
04-11 23:50:11	por ama spo 2026 04 11 btts	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2bea8b…
04-10 22:45:51	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	SELL	219	94¢	$206	0x474ede…
04-10 22:43:03	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	SELL	235	94¢	$220	0x285aa7…
04-10 22:42:23	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	SELL	66	94¢	$62	0x729247…
04-10 19:45:23	por ama spo 2026 04 11 btts	No	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x7d0e88…