Ill-Informed-Precision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

5,360

Trades

48,513

lifetime

Volume

$999.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$80

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-27 11:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

99% 56% +$20,005

Crypto

1% 44% +$33

Politics

0% 57% +$184

Tech

0% 30% -$10

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$11

Sports

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 990 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Yes	+50	$38	67¢	$33	-$5	08-30 11:49
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	+50	$10	33¢	$17	+$7	08-29 15:57
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+50	$12	30¢	$15	+$3	08-29 21:52
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+9	$2	98¢	$9	+$6	08-29 13:22
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	No	+5	$4	96¢	$5	+$1	08-26 20:26
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+50	$11	4¢	$2	-$9	08-26 20:26
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+3	$0	1¢	$0	$0	08-29 22:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 460 479	130	$6.8K	7,263	7,283	-20	Yes	+$649	01-23 17:25
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 380 399	92	$6.2K	5,893	5,843	+50	Yes	+$237	01-30 16:37
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	159	$5.8K	5,459	5,380	+79	Yes	+$1,339	03-02 16:59
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 90 114	124	$5.6K	5,060	3,362	+1,698	No	-$576	01-26 15:25
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 115 139	98	$5.1K	4,434	3,422	+1,013	Yes	+$62	01-31 15:05
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	55	$5.1K	4,933	5,557	-625	Yes	+$708	03-06 16:42
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	102	$4.9K	4,491	4,441	+50	Yes	+$1,401	03-03 16:35
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	148	$4.7K	5,366	5,413	-47	Yes	+$1,348	02-23 16:54
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	139	$4.6K	10,823	9,055	+1,768	No	-$221	03-06 10:09
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 90 114	93	$4.6K	3,951	3,762	+189	Yes	+$945	02-18 16:48
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	112	$4.5K	4,880	3,474	+1,407	No	-$622	02-24 15:20
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 40 64	91	$4.4K	2,950	3,053	-103	Yes	+$480	02-14 16:35
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	185	$4.2K	12,350	13,194	-845	No	-$539	03-05 10:00
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	147	$4.1K	6,365	5,365	+1,000	Yes	+$477	02-02 15:12
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 400 419	158	$3.8K	7,623	8,092	-469	No	-$7	01-27 16:56
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	59	$3.7K	3,607	3,607	+0	Yes	+$1,514	02-27 16:47
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 140 164	47	$3.7K	2,403	2,435	-32	Yes	+$669	01-24 16:48
elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	82	$3.7K	3,611	3,605	+5	Yes	+$1,144	03-04 17:00
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 65 89	87	$3.6K	4,312	1,205	+3,107	Yes	+$1,016	01-28 16:09
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	157	$3.4K	6,116	5,891	+224	No	-$451	02-02 16:38
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	72	$3.4K	3,216	3,216	+0	Yes	+$1,191	02-06 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	192	$3.3K	9,839	9,490	+349	No	-$366	01-28 16:08
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	222	$3.3K	11,890	7,859	+4,031	No	-$412	01-22 23:55
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	88	$3.3K	8,519	7,464	+1,055	No	-$1,004	03-05 16:27
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	95	$3.2K	2,450	2,350	+100	Yes	+$735	02-16 16:34
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 140 164	155	$3.0K	6,606	6,383	+223	Yes	+$894	02-11 17:00
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 90 114	79	$3.0K	2,382	2,485	-103	Yes	+$429	01-21 16:56
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 360 379	86	$2.8K	5,645	4,241	+1,404	No	-$316	01-30 14:56
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 340 359	146	$2.8K	6,937	5,493	+1,444	No	+$217	02-10 14:49
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	110	$2.8K	5,761	5,761	+0	No	-$817	03-03 16:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:18:47	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$7	0x211f87…
10-27 12:15:51	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x2b0528…
10-27 12:01:20	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x1ae213…
10-27 11:49:02	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	34	63¢	$21	0x1fc513…
10-27 11:40:45	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	38	67¢	$26	0xb51f34…
10-27 11:29:06	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x34c458…
10-27 11:28:41	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x68a6ba…
10-27 11:22:30	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xb59ffb…
10-27 11:20:36	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x3f6a1b…
10-27 11:20:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x39c786…
10-27 11:17:56	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x85f28b…
10-27 10:47:11	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $56 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x7c7b54…
10-27 10:47:03	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $56 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x034db7…
10-27 10:47:00	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xbd6461…
10-27 10:46:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x01b6f3…
10-27 10:45:27	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x029edd…
10-27 10:44:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x1da5b3…
10-27 10:39:33	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x16d467…
10-27 09:48:56	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xef0275…
10-27 09:26:57	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x0bc825…
10-27 09:07:14	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	165	71¢	$117	0xa92edf…
10-27 09:06:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x6be01a…
10-27 09:06:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x55f961…
10-27 09:06:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x4e5f98…
10-27 09:06:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xffa7a4…
10-27 09:06:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xf2f719…
10-27 09:06:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xa86fa6…
10-27 09:06:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x5e390f…
10-27 09:05:15	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0x4c8d0e…
10-27 08:58:00	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x2c6179…
10-27 08:49:45	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	77¢	$25	0xcf9f82…
10-27 08:18:35	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xb8f629…
10-27 08:07:23	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xf37b46…
10-27 08:04:11	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0x229015…
10-27 08:00:17	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0xc6aef0…
10-27 08:00:15	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	201	51¢	$102	0xdfca9c…
10-27 08:00:15	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	146	71¢	$104	0xb5f80d…
10-27 08:00:05	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	202	38¢	$76	0xfe9d9d…
10-27 07:42:57	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x4a5555…
10-27 07:18:47	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xabd7eb…
10-27 06:40:12	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x2d2e12…
10-27 06:39:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf47b41…
10-27 06:39:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x2337e1…
10-27 06:37:11	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x7c35d9…
10-27 06:33:51	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xb18dbb…
10-27 06:30:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x9babf8…
10-27 06:24:53	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2716fd…
10-27 06:24:36	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xbc219c…
10-27 06:21:33	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x8a475a…
10-27 06:17:24	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x6c7228…
10-27 06:16:15	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x1133fd…
10-27 06:16:02	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x704ecb…
10-27 06:15:15	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7469f5…
10-27 06:00:17	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xed51ce…
10-27 05:42:48	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0xad04d9…
10-27 05:39:47	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xe1de39…
10-27 05:31:48	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x5a602d…
10-27 05:31:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xaa3fce…
10-27 05:30:56	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0xf34fc5…
10-27 05:30:48	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x2464ba…
10-27 05:18:53	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $51 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	175	68¢	$119	0x8e290e…
10-27 05:13:32	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	44	73¢	$32	0x3b39ef…
10-27 03:25:33	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xcbc3c4…
10-27 03:17:24	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb03917…
10-27 03:17:24	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x921ec4…
10-27 03:17:24	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1ef226…
10-27 03:17:23	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfe458c…
10-27 03:17:23	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa3e423…
10-27 03:17:21	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8ab7be…
10-27 03:17:21	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7c6853…
10-27 03:17:20	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9ef0f2…
10-27 03:17:20	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x54929d…
10-27 03:17:18	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7764f8…
10-27 03:17:18	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0bd32c…
10-27 03:17:15	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xee562e…
10-27 03:17:15	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb07bd0…
10-27 03:17:15	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x85873f…
10-27 03:17:15	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4425b2…
10-27 03:17:14	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x56a5ed…
10-27 03:14:53	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xdbabfa…
10-27 02:55:09	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x5b06ab…
10-27 02:48:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x29a3f0…
10-27 02:21:21	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $315 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0xb61627…
10-27 02:16:41	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x1a42ed…
10-27 02:08:09	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	66	82¢	$54	0xcce41e…
10-27 00:45:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x467b1f…
10-27 00:35:18	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x01b793…
10-27 00:17:41	ewy up or down on october 27 2026	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2136f0…
10-27 00:14:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x65d725…
10-27 00:14:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x678140…
10-27 00:13:54	ewy up or down on october 27 2026	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x09b2b8…
10-27 00:09:09	ewy up or down on october 27 2026	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xa40235…
10-27 00:03:59	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xe60096…
10-27 00:02:15	amzn up or down on october 27 2026	Down	BUY	35	40¢	$14	0x756be1…
10-27 00:01:12	ewy up or down on october 27 2026	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x7d41d1…
10-27 00:00:29	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $150 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xd9fe23…
10-26 23:47:45	hood up or down on october 27 2026	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x6686c3…
10-26 21:59:32	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x651d54…
10-26 21:59:18	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x21b106…
10-26 21:59:03	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $900 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x5e93c5…