Ill-Informed-Precision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

5,380

Trades

48,696

lifetime

Volume

$1.00M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$79

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 04:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 229 days

Categories

Other

99% 56% +$20,212

Crypto

1% 44% +$33

Politics

0% 57% +$184

Tech

0% 30% -$10

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$11

Sports

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 990 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Yes	+50	$38	65¢	$32	-$6	08-30 11:49
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	+50	$10	35¢	$18	+$8	08-29 15:57
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+50	$12	29¢	$14	+$3	08-29 21:52
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+9	$2	98¢	$9	+$6	08-29 13:22
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	No	+5	$4	97¢	$5	+$1	08-26 20:26
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+50	$11	3¢	$2	-$10	08-26 20:26
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+3	$0	1¢	$0	$0	08-29 22:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 460 479	130	$6.8K	7,263	7,283	-20	Yes	+$649	01-23 17:25
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 380 399	92	$6.2K	5,893	5,843	+50	Yes	+$237	01-30 16:37
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	159	$5.8K	5,459	5,380	+79	Yes	+$1,339	03-02 16:59
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 90 114	124	$5.6K	5,060	3,362	+1,698	No	-$576	01-26 15:25
elon musk of tweets january 29 january 31 115 139	98	$5.1K	4,434	3,422	+1,013	Yes	+$62	01-31 15:05
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	55	$5.1K	4,933	5,557	-625	Yes	+$708	03-06 16:42
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	102	$4.9K	4,491	4,441	+50	Yes	+$1,401	03-03 16:35
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	148	$4.7K	5,366	5,413	-47	Yes	+$1,348	02-23 16:54
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	139	$4.6K	10,823	9,055	+1,768	No	-$221	03-06 10:09
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 90 114	93	$4.6K	3,951	3,762	+189	Yes	+$945	02-18 16:48
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 340 359	112	$4.5K	4,880	3,474	+1,407	No	-$622	02-24 15:20
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 40 64	91	$4.4K	2,950	3,053	-103	Yes	+$480	02-14 16:35
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	185	$4.2K	12,350	13,194	-845	No	-$539	03-05 10:00
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	147	$4.1K	6,365	5,365	+1,000	Yes	+$477	02-02 15:12
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 400 419	158	$3.8K	7,623	8,092	-469	No	-$7	01-27 16:56
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	59	$3.7K	3,607	3,607	+0	Yes	+$1,514	02-27 16:47
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 140 164	47	$3.7K	2,403	2,435	-32	Yes	+$669	01-24 16:48
elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	82	$3.7K	3,611	3,605	+5	Yes	+$1,144	03-04 17:00
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 65 89	87	$3.6K	4,312	1,205	+3,107	Yes	+$1,016	01-28 16:09
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	157	$3.4K	6,116	5,891	+224	No	-$451	02-02 16:38
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	72	$3.4K	3,216	3,216	+0	Yes	+$1,191	02-06 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	192	$3.3K	9,839	9,490	+349	No	-$366	01-28 16:08
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	222	$3.3K	11,890	7,859	+4,031	No	-$412	01-22 23:55
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	88	$3.3K	8,519	7,464	+1,055	No	-$1,004	03-05 16:27
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 65 89	95	$3.2K	2,450	2,350	+100	Yes	+$735	02-16 16:34
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 140 164	155	$3.0K	6,606	6,383	+223	Yes	+$894	02-11 17:00
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 90 114	79	$3.0K	2,382	2,485	-103	Yes	+$429	01-21 16:56
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 360 379	86	$2.8K	5,645	4,241	+1,404	No	-$316	01-30 14:56
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 340 359	146	$2.8K	6,937	5,493	+1,444	No	+$217	02-10 14:49
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	110	$2.8K	5,761	5,761	+0	No	-$817	03-03 16:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 05:08:25	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc20023…
10-28 05:08:25	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x17949f…
10-28 04:59:37	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xbe3c92…
10-28 04:51:25	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	53	70¢	$37	0xff8542…
10-28 04:51:02	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xe9512f…
10-28 04:38:44	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	110	84¢	$92	0x175c6a…
10-28 04:37:04	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0xd8ca27…
10-28 04:33:52	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x64756c…
10-28 04:26:11	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x55e267…
10-28 04:17:47	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x0a2463…
10-28 03:40:24	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xaf1cd4…
10-28 03:04:12	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x6a2f71…
10-28 02:15:05	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x954a20…
10-28 02:06:29	ng up or down on october 28 2026	Down	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xda4786…
10-28 01:55:09	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xc09110…
10-28 01:50:05	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $305 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x4ddcc8…
10-28 01:17:32	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xb23f54…
10-28 00:58:33	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xb01c07…
10-28 00:54:38	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd7aca3…
10-28 00:50:03	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x810127…
10-28 00:49:29	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9c2fd9…
10-28 00:46:26	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x50a463…
10-28 00:43:35	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x5e25bc…
10-28 00:39:39	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb74e6f…
10-28 00:38:39	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	7	82¢	$5	0x78a114…
10-28 00:28:08	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x576fd7…
10-28 00:26:48	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xd3fb8d…
10-28 00:17:39	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	56	64¢	$36	0x774262…
10-28 00:17:32	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x836c15…
10-28 00:15:27	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x51bcde…
10-28 00:15:03	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	108	81¢	$87	0x7d0d88…
10-28 00:15:02	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x8c5529…
10-28 00:15:02	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0x3a5d73…
10-28 00:06:05	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x10bb3b…
10-28 00:02:44	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x8a30bf…
10-28 00:00:05	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	201	53¢	$106	0x0b3dd8…
10-27 23:59:35	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xac0e0a…
10-27 23:51:53	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x73b1bb…
10-27 23:51:06	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x5ccce9…
10-27 23:50:56	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xffe445…
10-27 23:31:17	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x9a28c3…
10-27 22:55:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x6bbbb1…
10-27 22:54:42	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	13¢	$5	0x0cd90f…
10-27 22:24:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xff2d41…
10-27 22:23:21	googl up or down on october 28 2026	Up	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0x215487…
10-27 21:41:11	ewy up or down on october 28 2026	Down	BUY	201	57¢	$114	0xa5818f…
10-27 21:40:21	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	131	30¢	$39	0x979f2e…
10-27 21:39:41	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $159 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	24¢	$8	0xec1bdc…
10-27 21:34:42	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $149 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	65¢	$21	0x6c4e6b…
10-27 21:34:20	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x6a1bb1…
10-27 21:30:30	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	71¢	$23	0x0049b7…
10-27 21:27:17	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $149 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	64¢	$21	0xda8f63…
10-27 21:27:17	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x8ecbad…
10-27 21:25:45	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0xfaa4bf…
10-27 21:25:00	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x46e4ae…
10-27 20:26:12	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xdc9ec3…
10-27 20:19:32	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe39582…
10-27 20:19:30	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x4272ee…
10-27 20:19:17	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xbd38f4…
10-27 20:19:12	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	32¢	$17	0xfc06fe…
10-27 20:18:12	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x450881…
10-27 20:10:18	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x3d44c6…
10-27 20:07:44	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x731154…
10-27 20:07:18	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2144f3…
10-27 20:05:35	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9b385d…
10-27 20:05:35	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0863fb…
10-27 20:05:03	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xf338f0…
10-27 20:05:03	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x316c97…
10-27 20:02:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xcb7d43…
10-27 19:51:27	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $146 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x899807…
10-27 19:48:45	will ewy reach 159 by october 26 2026	No	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x6057fc…
10-27 19:48:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xda60e0…
10-27 19:45:09	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $147 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x5f9cf2…
10-27 19:32:14	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x10cd09…
10-27 19:31:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0xd451a6…
10-27 19:25:27	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x476679…
10-27 19:25:15	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0x57bf3e…
10-27 18:26:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x627eb4…
10-27 18:16:06	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xad7592…
10-27 18:15:35	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x348097…
10-27 17:55:42	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x9b7b8d…
10-27 17:43:00	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x2706ad…
10-27 17:10:09	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	110	74¢	$81	0x567342…
10-27 17:03:06	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0x3de615…
10-27 17:02:47	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xe91b26…
10-27 17:00:57	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	45	72¢	$32	0x3081d8…
10-27 16:55:56	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xf75f4d…
10-27 16:54:54	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xd9116b…
10-27 16:48:06	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xc7cec1…
10-27 16:48:06	will hood dip to 95 by october 26 2026 from october 27	Yes	BUY	110	78¢	$86	0x11a9b6…
10-27 16:39:35	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $82.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	47	81¢	$38	0x7a3f61…
10-27 16:39:12	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x3e95a7…
10-27 16:36:23	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0xdd601c…
10-27 16:35:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xe6e196…
10-27 16:18:21	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x6af7e5…
10-27 16:13:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xfe3533…
10-27 16:10:20	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xa622ad…
10-27 16:08:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3517c7…
10-27 16:00:05	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7d85a4…
10-27 15:55:29	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x7e9629…