Thoughtful-Cellar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.0%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$586

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-15 14:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 63% +$6

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1770839100	4	$49	25	25	+0	open	—	02-11 20:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	8	$37	36	36	+0	Up	+$3	05-09 08:29
btc updown 15m 1770840000	2	$34	39	39	+0	open	—	02-11 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	5	$22	27	21	+6	Down	+$5	05-09 08:34
btc updown 15m 1769372100	7	$21	22	20	+2	open	—	01-25 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 18:44
btc updown 15m 1770836400	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	02-11 19:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 18:39
btc updown 15m 1770837300	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	02-11 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	3	$17	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 18:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$17	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 18:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	4	$16	9	9	+0	Down	+$0	05-09 08:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$15	13	13	+0	Up	$-7	05-08 18:49
btc updown 15m 1769371200	3	$15	16	16	+0	open	—	01-25 20:08
btc updown 15m 1769357700	6	$14	20	20	+0	open	—	01-25 16:20
crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	2	$13	16	0	+16	open	—	03-05 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	4	$13	11	11	+0	open	—	05-16 08:34
btc updown 15m 1769410800	4	$13	20	20	+0	open	—	01-26 07:06
btc updown 15m 1769090400	6	$11	18	18	+0	open	—	01-22 14:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 18:09
btc updown 15m 1769416200	4	$10	15	15	+0	open	—	01-26 08:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 02:45
btc updown 15m 1769373000	5	$10	68	67	+1	open	—	01-25 20:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$9	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$9	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$9	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 18:19
btc updown 15m 1769675400	3	$6	29	0	+29	open	—	01-29 08:34
btc updown 15m 1769411700	4	$5	40	0	+40	open	—	01-26 07:25
bitcoin above 70k on march 6	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	03-06 13:30
btc updown 15m 1769093100	2	$5	10	10	+0	open	—	01-22 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 14:40:10	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x82bd51…
06-13 15:39:12	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	Switzerland	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x84da53…
06-13 15:17:03	doge updown 5m 1781363700	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0d1eff…
06-13 15:06:45	doge updown 5m 1781363100	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xec8b42…
06-13 15:01:51	doge updown 5m 1781362800	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xf052d8…
06-13 14:58:37	doge updown 5m 1781362500	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x120062…
05-16 08:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x938892…
05-16 08:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x984d40…
05-16 08:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x579b23…
05-16 08:34:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcf2ec5…
05-16 08:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x39114d…
05-16 08:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x038d84…
05-16 08:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x15896c…
05-16 08:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x3737be…
05-09 23:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xaf7d79…
05-09 23:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x465c3f…
05-09 23:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x7fd120…
05-09 23:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb1d80f…
05-09 23:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x66d5c6…
05-09 23:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xdf2bcd…
05-09 23:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x9d6618…
05-09 23:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x35d9db…
05-09 22:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xd1e068…
05-09 22:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x162ad5…
05-09 22:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x1b4d61…
05-09 22:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x788065…
05-09 22:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x16b6d6…
05-09 22:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xc3e30e…
05-09 22:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0ad4e2…
05-09 22:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x675071…
05-09 22:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xcb35a7…
05-09 22:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x18504b…
05-09 08:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3d7a50…
05-09 08:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x8ba18d…
05-09 08:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x94ef9c…
05-09 08:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0xfc1be6…
05-09 08:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0xcdf76e…
05-09 08:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x101479…
05-09 08:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0xf882d7…
05-09 08:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x318d5b…
05-09 08:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x29703b…
05-09 08:30:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe306df…
05-09 08:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x92e7b1…
05-09 08:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xd48e76…
05-09 08:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0xc3ca58…
05-09 08:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xc2228e…
05-09 08:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x4f8c01…
05-09 08:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x018abf…
05-09 08:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x918f9f…
05-09 08:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x0e593c…
05-09 08:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x27a71c…
05-09 08:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xb1b7e4…
05-09 08:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	94¢	$4	0x9250c4…
05-09 08:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x5c5eb5…
05-09 03:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x2e3730…
05-09 03:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe79e9f…
05-09 03:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd39de5…
05-09 02:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x86afee…
05-09 02:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x8b24f2…
05-08 18:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x412b8c…
05-08 18:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0x666def…
05-08 18:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x3b4b1f…
05-08 18:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x161bfb…
05-08 18:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x08aee1…
05-08 18:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x4e5962…
05-08 18:35:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa2ace5…
05-08 18:35:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x00199f…
05-08 18:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x2d1fde…
05-08 18:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x8130cc…
05-08 18:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x8940ee…
05-08 18:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x2a1759…
05-08 18:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x81fdd4…
05-08 18:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdc38c2…
05-08 18:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x27e973…
05-08 18:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x33fe23…
05-08 18:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xe14632…
05-08 18:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x7f9571…
05-08 18:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x5e98d0…
05-08 18:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd29d63…
03-06 13:30:03	bitcoin above 70k on march 6	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xb9a644…
03-06 12:39:59	bitcoin above 70k on march 6	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x30efcf…
03-06 06:23:49	sol updown 5m 1772778000	Down	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x01b7eb…
03-06 06:22:19	sol updown 5m 1772778000	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x379f8e…
03-06 06:18:25	sol updown 5m 1772777700	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0775f5…
03-05 16:27:11	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	India	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x737a1e…
03-04 09:02:13	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	India	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x04d34b…
03-04 09:01:39	crint zaf nzl 2026 03 04	South Africa	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x365d3c…
02-28 16:59:01	crint ind wst 2026 03 01	India	BUY	3	77¢	$3	0xb185e4…
02-28 16:58:43	crint lka pak 2026 02 28	Sri Lanka	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x937c5f…
02-28 07:45:43	crint lka pak 2026 02 28	Sri Lanka	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x73f707…
02-28 07:44:25	crint ind wst 2026 03 01	India	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x191d8f…
02-12 05:41:21	btc updown 5m 1770874800	Down	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xc61b5f…
02-12 05:40:17	btc updown 5m 1770874800	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x567419…
02-12 05:39:41	btc updown 5m 1770874800	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2a562a…
02-12 05:30:21	btc updown 5m 1770874200	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4a7bd0…
02-12 05:14:27	btc updown 5m 1770873300	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9a48e2…
02-12 05:10:13	btc updown 5m 1770873000	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5a3509…
02-12 04:59:09	btc updown 5m 1770872400	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x81c4b8…
02-11 20:14:29	btc updown 15m 1770840000	Down	SELL	39	20¢	$8	0x33cbc5…
02-11 20:11:13	btc updown 15m 1770840000	Down	BUY	39	67¢	$26	0x5a18cc…