Disguised-Bet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

163

Trades

1,116

lifetime

Volume

$2.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 06-06 06:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 99% +$10

Other

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cs2 nemi1 ursa 2026 03 25	4	$16	18	0	+18	open	—	03-25 19:24
btc updown 5m 1776215100	2	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	04-15 01:09
btc updown 5m 1776212400	1	$13	13	0	+13	open	—	04-15 00:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 07:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 12:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 05:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	05-15 06:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 03:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 05:43
cs2 g2 aim1 2026 03 25	2	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	03-25 08:06
cs2 navi aur1 2026 03 23	3	$9	14	0	+14	open	—	03-23 07:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$8	29	29	+0	open	—	04-29 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 05:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	1	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	05-23 06:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	05-22 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 06:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 12:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 05:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 10:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 21:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 03:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 12:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 06:38:28	eth updown 5m 1780727700	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x149687…
06-06 05:28:39	eth updown 5m 1780723500	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xa2b0f7…
06-06 03:03:37	eth updown 5m 1780714800	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x74f49a…
06-05 21:04:10	btc updown 5m 1780693200	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf50b39…
06-05 17:54:06	btc updown 5m 1780681800	Up	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x2b6efd…
06-05 12:18:45	eth updown 5m 1780661700	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x5a9425…
06-05 04:43:55	eth updown 5m 1780634400	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x5e368f…
06-05 04:33:33	btc updown 5m 1780633800	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xd7aafe…
06-05 03:58:40	eth updown 5m 1780631700	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x4bae96…
06-05 02:28:58	eth updown 5m 1780626300	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xdbf5a6…
06-04 21:58:37	eth updown 5m 1780610100	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x5a8e3c…
06-04 21:39:00	eth updown 5m 1780608900	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf9fd88…
06-04 17:34:01	eth updown 5m 1780594200	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x820548…
06-04 15:13:49	eth updown 5m 1780585800	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x606f24…
06-04 14:48:51	eth updown 5m 1780584300	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xb75044…
06-04 13:18:27	btc updown 5m 1780578900	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x8438a3…
06-04 11:08:46	eth updown 5m 1780571100	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x19617d…
06-04 08:43:43	eth updown 5m 1780562400	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x385781…
06-04 05:48:31	btc updown 5m 1780551900	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x215b96…
06-03 22:58:55	eth updown 5m 1780527300	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x73e25c…
06-03 21:18:40	eth updown 5m 1780521300	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x698a9d…
06-03 18:38:48	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe0e1c8…
06-03 18:03:43	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xbd7a54…
06-03 16:58:37	Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xd39c38…
06-03 08:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x18838f…
06-03 04:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x414c05…
06-03 02:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x62f134…
06-03 01:43:46	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7af760…
06-03 00:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0c14f3…
06-03 00:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2358e4…
06-02 22:08:41	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4a7ccc…
06-02 21:58:41	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x28408e…
06-02 21:08:50	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8d6302…
06-02 20:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd6c3ec…
06-02 19:43:54	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdf1dce…
06-02 05:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfb787d…
06-02 04:28:41	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbf4b96…
06-01 19:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdda7da…
06-01 15:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf39d15…
06-01 13:48:43	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8375fd…
06-01 13:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xba8b87…
06-01 13:18:57	Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5b251e…
06-01 07:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa44ca9…
06-01 06:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfa01e2…
06-01 02:33:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x77f309…
05-31 07:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6cded4…
05-31 02:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x765c60…
05-30 06:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xae4af1…
05-30 02:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xba7e06…
05-30 02:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x318e04…
05-29 19:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2484c8…
05-29 14:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1eb094…
05-29 14:23:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbbc27d…
05-29 11:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x48231b…
05-29 03:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8fa3ad…
05-28 12:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x421f26…
05-28 12:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xb86739…
05-28 09:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xfa3799…
05-28 07:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x8a24c8…
05-28 07:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x038293…
05-28 04:34:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x155c66…
05-28 02:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0094e4…
05-27 21:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x525ea2…
05-27 17:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc4ee1f…
05-27 14:18:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x9f8c39…
05-27 14:03:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x99225b…
05-27 08:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x692ba0…
05-27 08:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf2bcf4…
05-27 03:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8b893a…
05-27 02:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc86603…
05-27 02:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8e8ebe…
05-26 21:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x45fcd1…
05-26 16:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5ddfb4…
05-26 16:08:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7cf5b3…
05-26 15:43:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x86b2e8…
05-26 15:33:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x767056…
05-26 15:13:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xff35f8…
05-26 14:53:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7d97e2…
05-26 10:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdb1464…
05-26 10:38:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x18a491…
05-26 10:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe7e6e9…
05-26 09:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf82461…
05-26 09:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8b04e7…
05-26 08:38:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5d33ef…
05-26 04:28:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2a916b…
05-26 01:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd0a947…
05-25 23:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x156957…
05-25 22:23:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0ca00b…
05-25 21:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd23a07…
05-25 19:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb96b17…
05-25 10:38:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x02398d…
05-25 10:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x7767a2…
05-25 10:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x016691…
05-25 09:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x6cf21f…
05-25 08:53:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x9ddb67…
05-25 08:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x0ca4cd…
05-25 07:58:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x7182e4…
05-25 06:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x8ca79b…
05-25 06:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xf836b2…
05-25 05:08:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xb66cf0…