Famous-Audience — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$350

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.2%

Resolved

2,777

Trades

6,708

lifetime

Volume

$50.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 10-20 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 156 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 87% -$229

Tech

24% 45% +$325

Other

23% 42% -$429

Sports

1% 40% -$14

Pop-Culture

0% 29% -$3

Politics

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	8	$1.3K	764	764	+0	No	+$240	09-30 20:49
claude sonnet 5pt1 output token price debut at least 10	10	$1.1K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$93	09-28 22:30
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	3	$1.0K	551	551	+0	No	+$22	10-02 14:43
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	19	$867	724	724	+0	Yes	+$120	10-12 12:12
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	7	$573	347	347	+0	Yes	+$75	09-28 17:08
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	6	$572	319	319	+0	Yes	+$59	09-22 17:53
Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by September 30?	8	$571	325	325	+0	Yes	+$72	09-22 16:37
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	8	$549	405	405	+0	Yes	+$148	09-28 17:54
OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29?	9	$510	314	314	+0	Yes	+$110	09-30 02:45
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	22	$465	1,229	1,229	+0	No	-$433	10-09 23:02
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	4	$429	231	231	+0	Yes	+$29	09-26 06:38
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 21, 2026?	9	$428	237	236	+0	Yes	+$45	09-21 16:18
will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	2	$416	255	255	+0	No	+$16	09-30 12:26
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	13	$398	216	216	+0	Yes	+$17	06-13 16:01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	8	$364	462	277	+185	No	-$102	10-19 17:01
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	7	$358	249	249	+0	Yes	+$74	09-22 16:28
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	4	$351	266	110	+156	Yes	+$23	09-22 17:48
Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?	11	$336	253	253	+0	Yes	+$113	09-26 09:24
Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	11	$320	202	202	+0	Yes	+$49	10-19 03:01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	6	$316	366	366	+0	No	+$16	10-04 18:42
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	3	$308	166	166	+0	Yes	+$8	09-22 16:24
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	2	$301	223	223	+0	Yes	+$101	09-24 03:05
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	4	$293	331	331	+0	Yes	-$227	09-30 00:44
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	4	$286	385	385	+0	Yes	-$182	09-30 00:43
will no company have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	5	$277	147	147	+0	No	+$6	02-10 00:08
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	5	$243	145	145	+0	Yes	+$43	09-26 07:21
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	15	$221	455	455	+0	No	+$35	08-31 16:22
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	3	$213	171	171	+0	Yes	+$73	09-22 15:59
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	11	$211	196	196	+0	Yes	-$33	06-23 08:29
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	12	$209	175	175	+0	No	-$54	06-21 09:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 10:45:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x1d84a9…
10-20 06:10:16	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xf26799…
10-20 04:37:08	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	14¢	$16	0xf15254…
10-19 17:01:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	24¢	$14	0x7f29fb…
10-19 15:38:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	59¢	$22	0xfa29d5…
10-19 06:14:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x37d766…
10-19 06:13:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0x5ca3cc…
10-19 04:06:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x982e1b…
10-19 03:01:45	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x03378e…
10-19 02:14:06	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x513de2…
10-19 01:49:00	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x6191af…
10-19 01:43:48	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xe2efc0…
10-19 01:32:00	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xef8a87…
10-19 01:24:32	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x3e7065…
10-18 17:44:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x82bb31…
10-18 17:42:48	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0x981eef…
10-18 17:39:29	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x3bbcf0…
10-17 16:24:47	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x95fa1e…
10-17 16:24:21	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x9b903a…
10-17 16:23:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	257	46¢	$118	0xdd0c6a…
10-17 16:22:30	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	34	63¢	$21	0x89becc…
10-17 16:22:12	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	55¢	$17	0x0d20a2…
10-17 13:43:18	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xf9fa11…
10-17 05:02:47	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0xb1d7db…
10-16 15:20:09	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	85	78¢	$66	0x63652c…
10-16 15:19:37	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0xf2f3e2…
10-16 15:17:19	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x87b8c9…
10-16 07:03:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x5181ba…
10-16 04:54:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0x481efe…
10-16 04:14:34	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0x9059e0…
10-16 04:14:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x724d6e…
10-16 04:12:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0xc004d1…
10-15 19:57:13	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x367a02…
10-15 16:54:40	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x6791cc…
10-15 16:47:08	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xb6fa8c…
10-15 15:54:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	48	86¢	$41	0xbb5912…
10-15 15:00:31	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xcedb71…
10-15 14:39:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xa87961…
10-15 14:28:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xb1a0ef…
10-15 14:16:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x71f001…
10-15 14:16:17	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xfffed2…
10-15 14:16:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x4debda…
10-15 14:16:01	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x1fd45b…
10-15 14:15:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0x43a32e…
10-15 13:55:11	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xb5f0aa…
10-15 10:32:16	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xd3cfb8…
10-15 10:29:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	71	82¢	$58	0x96020e…
10-15 10:25:53	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	8¢	$4	0x77df30…
10-15 01:38:58	claude fable 5pt2 output token price debut at least 50	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x86dbe9…
10-15 01:38:46	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 21 2026	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x445030…
10-14 21:36:19	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	71	87¢	$62	0x25a4cb…
10-14 21:31:43	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x7ccc11…
10-14 21:02:25	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 21 2026	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xed295c…
10-14 14:49:24	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 21 2026	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x99933e…
10-14 12:33:57	claude fable 5pt2 output token price debut at least 50	Yes	BUY	35	60¢	$21	0xf57acf…
10-14 04:49:17	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	88	60¢	$53	0x467bfc…
10-14 04:38:01	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0xe48b43…
10-14 04:05:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	74¢	$64	0x2493a7…
10-14 02:48:22	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x46b6c5…
10-13 21:14:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x6562a0…
10-13 21:04:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0x4c89ce…
10-13 09:31:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x3a0e3f…
10-13 09:04:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x2b99e3…
10-13 07:35:02	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0xee2197…
10-13 07:30:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x48bb7c…
10-13 06:22:37	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	72¢	$40	0x03dbdd…
10-13 06:11:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	72¢	$19	0x7301be…
10-13 05:54:18	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0x2cad93…
10-13 03:42:24	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0xad3516…
10-13 02:18:17	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x906b97…
10-12 23:24:17	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x4a3844…
10-12 23:14:41	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	4¢	$5	0xfa05bf…
10-12 18:45:48	Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xee571c…
10-12 16:54:38	Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0xcb11d4…
10-12 16:54:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	30¢	$21	0x3e1946…
10-12 16:54:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x6a8a23…
10-12 16:43:33	Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0x8db798…
10-12 16:41:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	53¢	$29	0xcc3ae3…
10-12 12:13:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	46¢	$16	0x9c0902…
10-12 12:12:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	60¢	$17	0xd27e21…
10-12 12:01:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	63¢	$17	0x960b4e…
10-12 11:18:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	63¢	$10	0xdeceb9…
10-12 10:59:20	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x7204a6…
10-12 09:56:10	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x9850a1…
10-12 09:55:35	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x31a137…
10-12 02:53:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x56448f…
10-12 01:45:29	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe60d77…
10-11 11:20:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x3a9661…
10-11 11:20:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	64¢	$45	0x1ba26d…
10-10 22:36:12	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xfc239a…
10-10 22:33:07	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?	Yes	SELL	22	29¢	$6	0x3c72c6…
10-10 06:35:45	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0x9749fa…
10-09 23:05:16	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	7¢	$8	0x048099…
10-09 23:02:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,229	1¢	$16	0x4e6cd6…
10-09 14:43:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xad7906…
10-09 14:11:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xd6a136…
10-09 13:25:18	gemini 4pt0 released by october 9 2026	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xace01a…
10-09 12:03:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xb53896…
10-09 03:46:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x95bcd2…
10-09 03:45:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	4¢	$5	0xf0db22…