Constant-Engagement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

340

lifetime

Volume

$4.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-22 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$21

Other

27% — —

Sports

18% 100% +$7

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?	Yes		+25	$7	28¢	$7	+$0	07-16 10:43
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes		+43	$3	2¢	$1	$-2	06-20 15:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	17	$294	181	181	+0	open	—	05-21 09:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	13	$284	172	172	+0	open	—	04-07 06:46
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	19	$274	767	697	+70	open	—	06-14 02:42
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	12	$258	227	227	+0	open	—	04-16 03:31
boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	29	$217	514	264	+250	open	—	06-13 23:19
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	4	$165	107	87	+20	open	—	04-29 09:05
ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	8	$147	186	104	+82	open	—	06-14 02:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	8	$135	81	81	+0	open	—	04-25 10:51
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$118	161	160	+1	open	—	04-16 12:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$117	64	64	+0	open	—	04-22 19:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$112	50	70	-20	open	—	05-10 14:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$110	58	58	+0	open	—	05-26 18:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$110	59	59	+0	open	—	03-22 05:41
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	5	$104	119	119	+0	open	—	06-02 11:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	7	$102	65	65	+0	No	+$20	05-06 01:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$101	59	59	+0	open	—	03-01 17:04
deepseek v4 released by april 24	6	$92	90	90	+0	open	—	04-23 20:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$90	51	51	+0	open	—	05-04 11:44
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	4	$86	49	49	+0	open	—	04-23 19:20
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	6	$83	57	38	+19	open	—	04-29 09:03
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$76	41	41	+0	open	—	05-06 20:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$65	36	36	+0	open	—	03-29 22:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	05-06 11:31
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	7	$57	88	0	+88	open	—	07-21 11:23
will iran strike safaniya field by march 31	7	$55	35	35	+0	open	—	03-22 09:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$50	28	28	+0	open	—	03-22 08:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$49	31	31	+0	open	—	05-06 02:46
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	5	$48	50	50	+0	open	—	06-29 18:19
will iran strike al zour refinery by march 31	6	$46	32	32	+0	open	—	03-22 09:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$46	24	24	+0	open	—	03-14 00:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 18:17:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x38f45f…
07-22 14:36:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0xfe8388…
07-21 11:23:45	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xf35d1c…
07-19 23:07:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0x30d67a…
07-19 12:45:22	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 spread home 3pt5	Spain	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa45bae…
07-19 12:44:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	40	6¢	$3	0xfc9fde…
07-19 12:44:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xe3fdc8…
07-18 19:28:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x1afee2…
07-18 19:18:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0xee8893…
07-18 11:30:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x037e67…
07-18 11:21:27	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xb57854…
07-18 11:01:55	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x4e289e…
07-18 11:00:01	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xed3b10…
07-16 10:43:04	Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x936775…
07-16 10:11:29	Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x1d578c…
07-10 04:53:19	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	SELL	33	52¢	$17	0x95b0f0…
07-10 02:51:23	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0x6cb842…
06-29 18:19:14	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	SELL	28	25¢	$7	0x39569b…
06-29 18:13:17	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x564d8a…
06-29 18:04:50	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	SELL	22	56¢	$13	0x494b93…
06-29 17:57:44	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x9be43d…
06-29 17:57:02	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x374981…
06-20 15:01:44	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x9487e7…
06-14 02:42:48	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x6c4b1c…
06-14 02:42:33	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x6e00cc…
06-14 00:41:04	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xfb2343…
06-14 00:39:30	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	SELL	196	19¢	$37	0xcec9b7…
06-13 23:19:04	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x2ffd7f…
06-13 23:18:45	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xa68f0e…
06-13 23:18:45	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x8f0a19…
06-13 23:18:43	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x076ef8…
06-13 23:18:34	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x36a76d…
06-13 23:18:31	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x19f7b4…
06-13 23:18:22	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x5a9d2d…
06-13 23:18:16	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x901763…
06-13 23:13:58	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xef618e…
06-13 17:02:40	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x376bd6…
06-13 12:50:33	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	SELL	60	38¢	$23	0x9f4149…
06-13 09:48:46	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xc4c83e…
06-13 08:49:07	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	SELL	68	32¢	$22	0xecf750…
06-13 08:41:13	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	SELL	270	19¢	$51	0xe0ed7c…
06-13 08:40:27	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0xca6549…
06-13 06:33:34	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xda10f9…
06-13 06:33:01	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x1d0fcc…
06-13 06:32:31	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xcf4828…
06-13 06:31:49	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	SELL	135	23¢	$31	0xaa9528…
06-13 03:54:43	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xf409cc…
06-13 03:52:15	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	47	30¢	$14	0x97539c…
06-13 03:51:37	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x8fae82…
06-13 03:38:57	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x63ee3a…
06-13 03:32:24	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0xb73356…
06-13 03:32:12	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x872a32…
06-13 03:21:22	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x6c2167…
06-13 03:21:09	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x6ce17d…
06-13 02:50:49	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	23	30¢	$7	0x736ef6…
06-12 17:52:54	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xd76852…
06-12 08:23:16	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x7b49ce…
06-12 05:11:49	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xbf7337…
06-12 02:51:36	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x27b079…
06-12 02:51:04	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x5e2aa8…
06-12 02:27:10	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x3d7239…
06-12 02:26:58	boxing tommy fury vs eddie hall	Hall	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xa92fc5…
06-09 01:07:21	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xed49fe…
06-09 01:06:46	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x774c51…
06-09 01:01:51	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x54db6f…
06-09 01:01:13	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd09a3a…
06-08 20:58:52	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x530155…
06-08 20:49:13	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2e6722…
06-08 20:44:01	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x800cca…
06-08 20:38:00	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x9a5d38…
06-05 02:46:19	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x23271c…
06-04 17:25:06	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	44	17¢	$7	0xcb6099…
06-02 11:46:44	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	SELL	77	29¢	$22	0x503a95…
06-02 11:46:28	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	SELL	217	17¢	$37	0xabdedc…
06-02 11:09:08	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xd7b99c…
06-02 11:08:37	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x808b82…
06-02 11:05:19	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x17404f…
06-02 10:48:03	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0x9ee213…
06-01 19:32:17	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xfb2aec…
06-01 19:20:09	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x3f1eef…
05-28 13:16:36	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x298989…
05-28 13:16:06	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x201a1b…
05-28 13:15:31	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x810b1c…
05-28 11:33:44	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x48a174…
05-26 18:22:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x5d5932…
05-26 18:21:37	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x18cd1b…
05-26 18:19:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x2d710b…
05-26 18:19:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0x2f0ec9…
05-23 03:52:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5fd34e…
05-23 03:50:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa36950…
05-21 09:45:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x3f4925…
05-21 09:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x84ea3c…
05-11 17:37:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x8f4e27…
05-11 17:36:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x97436a…
05-10 21:35:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	81	86¢	$69	0x7a9408…
05-10 14:37:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x7aea88…
05-09 12:13:55	Will the fight be won by submission?	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x0bae15…
05-09 12:06:32	Will the fight be won by submission?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x45b089…
05-07 11:24:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe97084…
05-07 11:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x3f5e9c…