Constant-Engagement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

277

lifetime

Volume

$3.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 06-09 01:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

57% 100% +$21

Other

31% — —

Sports

8% 100% +$7

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	17	$294	181	181	+0	open	—	05-21 09:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	13	$284	172	172	+0	open	—	04-07 06:46
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	12	$258	227	227	+0	open	—	04-16 03:31
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	4	$165	107	87	+20	open	—	04-29 09:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	8	$135	81	81	+0	open	—	04-25 10:51
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	11	$121	462	217	+245	open	—	06-09 01:06
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	5	$118	161	160	+1	open	—	04-16 12:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$117	64	64	+0	open	—	04-22 19:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	6	$112	50	70	-20	open	—	05-10 14:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$110	58	58	+0	open	—	05-26 18:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	4	$110	59	59	+0	open	—	03-22 05:41
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	5	$104	119	119	+0	open	—	06-02 11:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	7	$102	65	65	+0	No	+$20	05-06 01:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$101	59	59	+0	open	—	03-01 17:04
deepseek v4 released by april 24	6	$92	90	90	+0	open	—	04-23 20:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$90	51	51	+0	open	—	05-04 11:44
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	4	$86	49	49	+0	open	—	04-23 19:20
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	6	$83	57	38	+19	open	—	04-29 09:03
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$76	41	41	+0	open	—	05-06 20:11
ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	5	$70	137	0	+137	open	—	06-09 01:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$65	36	36	+0	open	—	03-29 22:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	05-06 11:31
will iran strike safaniya field by march 31	7	$55	35	35	+0	open	—	03-22 09:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$50	28	28	+0	open	—	03-22 08:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$49	31	31	+0	open	—	05-06 02:46
will iran strike al zour refinery by march 31	6	$46	32	32	+0	open	—	03-22 09:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$46	24	24	+0	open	—	03-14 00:15
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$45	30	30	+0	open	—	03-16 02:26
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	10	$45	119	92	+27	open	—	04-23 19:36
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$43	74	0	+74	open	—	02-20 06:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 01:07:21	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xed49fe…
06-09 01:06:46	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x774c51…
06-09 01:01:51	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x54db6f…
06-09 01:01:13	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xd09a3a…
06-08 20:58:52	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x530155…
06-08 20:49:13	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2e6722…
06-08 20:44:01	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x800cca…
06-08 20:38:00	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x9a5d38…
06-05 02:46:19	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x23271c…
06-04 17:25:06	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	44	17¢	$7	0xcb6099…
06-02 11:46:44	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	SELL	77	29¢	$22	0x503a95…
06-02 11:46:28	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	SELL	217	17¢	$37	0xabdedc…
06-02 11:09:08	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0xd7b99c…
06-02 11:08:37	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x808b82…
06-02 11:05:19	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x17404f…
06-02 10:48:03	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0x9ee213…
06-01 19:32:17	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xfb2aec…
06-01 19:20:09	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Max Holloway	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x3f1eef…
05-28 13:16:36	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x298989…
05-28 13:16:06	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x201a1b…
05-28 13:15:31	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x810b1c…
05-28 11:33:44	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x48a174…
05-26 18:22:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x5d5932…
05-26 18:21:37	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x18cd1b…
05-26 18:19:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x2d710b…
05-26 18:19:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0x2f0ec9…
05-23 03:52:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5fd34e…
05-23 03:50:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa36950…
05-21 09:45:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x3f4925…
05-21 09:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x84ea3c…
05-11 17:37:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x8f4e27…
05-11 17:36:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x97436a…
05-10 21:35:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	81	86¢	$69	0x7a9408…
05-10 14:37:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x7aea88…
05-09 12:13:55	Will the fight be won by submission?	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x0bae15…
05-09 12:06:32	Will the fight be won by submission?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x45b089…
05-07 11:24:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xe97084…
05-07 11:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x3f5e9c…
05-07 03:12:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x0857f7…
05-07 03:11:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xaa35b9…
05-07 03:07:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x649fb7…
05-07 03:01:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x48be59…
05-07 02:59:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xde0d2c…
05-07 02:08:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0xa4627b…
05-07 02:05:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x693c19…
05-07 02:01:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0xdf577b…
05-06 20:54:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0xf1c161…
05-06 20:46:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	24	70¢	$17	0x889c40…
05-06 20:35:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x53fb01…
05-06 20:27:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x540c12…
05-06 20:11:08	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	41	96¢	$39	0xce6635…
05-06 11:31:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xc7c3d7…
05-06 11:30:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xa14c7e…
05-06 02:46:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	31	79¢	$25	0x741fec…
05-06 02:40:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x186c7f…
05-06 02:14:04	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	14	76¢	$11	0xf79a14…
05-06 02:12:42	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0xbc216e…
05-06 01:54:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	19	98¢	$18	0xfadd12…
05-06 01:42:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	65	93¢	$61	0x9093e5…
05-04 19:14:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x44bedd…
05-04 18:36:38	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x8695e4…
05-04 17:37:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x711804…
05-04 17:34:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x5e766f…
05-04 17:30:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x1f57e1…
05-04 17:10:34	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x29f56c…
05-04 17:08:18	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x9ff72a…
05-04 16:48:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x129b6a…
05-04 16:47:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x5f89b2…
05-04 16:39:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xdbd4d0…
05-04 16:38:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x4c9bae…
05-04 16:29:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x29f655…
05-04 16:24:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xa9ed33…
05-04 16:17:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	22	59¢	$13	0x815f1b…
05-04 16:09:12	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xe5a933…
05-04 16:07:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xe2476d…
05-04 15:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x594fd2…
05-04 11:57:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xffae24…
05-04 11:55:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xb7dfac…
05-04 11:44:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x68905e…
04-30 14:15:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x864373…
04-30 14:14:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x996f70…
04-29 09:05:12	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf79c04…
04-29 09:03:36	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x445642…
04-29 08:48:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x9fcfe7…
04-26 00:26:04	Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0ffc5c…
04-26 00:25:30	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x6c4c8c…
04-26 00:25:10	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x85d850…
04-25 17:42:18	Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4ba19e…
04-25 17:42:04	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6f4680…
04-25 17:41:56	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3c5316…
04-25 10:51:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	94¢	$54	0x183a04…
04-23 20:42:00	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	SELL	67	60¢	$40	0x6f4089…
04-23 19:36:58	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	SELL	27	20¢	$5	0xe72848…
04-23 19:33:38	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	SELL	35	20¢	$7	0x023e77…
04-23 19:33:02	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x851a30…
04-23 19:32:20	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xbb40b2…
04-23 19:31:22	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0xc4733d…
04-23 19:31:08	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	SELL	23	41¢	$9	0x3fc62b…
04-23 19:26:54	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x416aa7…
04-23 19:20:56	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	39	47¢	$18	0x3a12a1…