Nocturnal-Strawman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$371

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

273

Trades

2,127

lifetime

Volume

$24.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 05-21 06:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 56% $-371

Other

1% — —

Politics

0% 0% $-0

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 640 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1776112200	12	$947	654	640	+13	open	—	04-13 20:42
btc updown 15m 1776113100	11	$713	516	505	+11	open	—	04-13 20:59
btc updown 15m 1776066300	10	$481	418	406	+12	open	—	04-13 07:54
btc updown 15m 1776108600	11	$454	387	377	+11	open	—	04-13 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	5	$399	440	440	+0	open	—	05-04 08:20
btc updown 15m 1776105900	6	$307	208	204	+4	open	—	04-13 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	5	$305	174	174	+0	open	—	05-03 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	5	$300	185	185	+0	open	—	05-03 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	5	$297	182	182	+0	open	—	05-04 08:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	4	$284	160	160	+0	open	—	05-03 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	8	$267	238	238	+0	Down	$-13	05-11 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	6	$235	453	132	+321	Down	$-15	05-12 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	8	$232	131	131	+0	open	—	05-03 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	2	$224	125	125	+0	open	—	05-03 10:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	4	$219	124	124	+0	open	—	05-03 10:29
btc updown 15m 1776105000	6	$218	248	239	+10	open	—	04-13 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	9	$218	141	141	+0	Down	+$18	05-11 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$212	118	118	+0	open	—	05-03 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$201	159	159	+0	Down	+$21	05-11 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	8	$183	122	122	+0	Up	+$13	05-08 17:00
ethereum up or down april 13 2026 12pm et	26	$181	130	127	+3	open	—	04-13 16:16
btc updown 15m 1776101400	9	$180	179	155	+24	open	—	04-13 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	4	$173	156	156	+0	Up	+$13	05-12 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$170	99	99	+0	Down	+$10	05-11 19:19
xrp updown 15m 1776086100	37	$168	184	177	+7	open	—	04-13 13:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	2	$164	135	135	+0	open	—	05-01 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	13	$160	181	169	+12	open	—	04-30 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	6	$156	148	148	+0	Down	+$8	05-12 09:23
btc updown 15m 1776100500	12	$147	118	115	+3	open	—	04-13 17:28
btc updown 15m 1776065400	11	$144	429	102	+328	open	—	04-13 07:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 06:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x7d9eab…
05-13 11:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	55	77¢	$42	0x853cee…
05-13 11:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	43	32¢	$14	0xa57c95…
05-13 11:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0xdd125f…
05-13 11:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	28	58¢	$16	0x90f108…
05-13 11:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0xaae433…
05-13 11:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x5bcdea…
05-13 11:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x2aeb1a…
05-13 11:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	31	87¢	$27	0x200bdf…
05-13 11:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x1a8cdb…
05-13 11:07:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	17	83¢	$14	0x6a5ea8…
05-13 11:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x7a1924…
05-13 08:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xd75850…
05-13 08:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x75af0b…
05-12 18:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	239	4¢	$10	0x0fc9fb…
05-12 18:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	44	16¢	$7	0xac283e…
05-12 18:57:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x7c1601…
05-12 18:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x413083…
05-12 18:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	47	63¢	$30	0xbe6c7e…
05-12 18:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0xd6e9c9…
05-12 18:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	43	85¢	$37	0x9ff432…
05-12 18:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	43	83¢	$36	0xe07745…
05-12 17:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	57	99¢	$57	0x757f94…
05-12 17:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xaf2945…
05-12 17:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x55503f…
05-12 16:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x218b14…
05-12 16:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	214	24¢	$51	0x186f1a…
05-12 16:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x940d99…
05-12 16:56:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	65	23¢	$15	0xdb8198…
05-12 16:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x75f884…
05-12 16:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	33	68¢	$23	0x9d39ff…
05-12 16:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	33	81¢	$27	0x26a916…
05-12 16:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	36	30¢	$11	0xfa2555…
05-12 16:49:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xeeace3…
05-12 16:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	114	1¢	$1	0x80bd89…
05-12 16:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x72595f…
05-12 16:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x0a1e81…
05-12 16:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	53	69¢	$37	0xe322f6…
05-12 16:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	53	60¢	$32	0xfbeb8b…
05-12 16:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	53	76¢	$40	0x3d8086…
05-12 09:56:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd1aeab…
05-12 09:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	59	90¢	$53	0x88eef1…
05-12 09:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	59	64¢	$38	0x13e038…
05-12 09:22:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	72	29¢	$21	0x8de82c…
05-12 09:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	72	36¢	$26	0x8a5663…
05-12 09:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	17	44¢	$7	0xf68ddb…
05-12 09:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x8a2811…
05-12 09:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	45	36¢	$16	0x718160…
05-12 09:12:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xd94bf7…
05-12 09:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xb2c06a…
05-12 09:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb92c31…
05-12 09:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xdf621e…
05-12 09:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xe1b8ec…
05-12 09:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x12a246…
05-12 09:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x9da285…
05-12 08:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x6f6fb7…
05-12 08:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xa16724…
05-12 08:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	45	56¢	$25	0x56656e…
05-12 08:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	41	59¢	$24	0xe8c77b…
05-12 08:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xdd112a…
05-12 08:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xdea54f…
05-12 08:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	112	88¢	$98	0xe3d68b…
05-12 08:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x0246d4…
05-12 08:47:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x8170e0…
05-12 08:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x85884f…
05-12 08:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe70970…
05-12 08:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	98	85¢	$83	0x1f2b2c…
05-12 08:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xe2e86a…
05-12 08:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	59	18¢	$11	0xa97f63…
05-12 08:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x16546a…
05-12 08:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0xe97515…
05-12 08:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x86cc84…
05-12 08:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	62	28¢	$17	0xb3fe58…
05-12 08:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x9ffbf8…
05-11 22:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	56	44¢	$25	0xc16f2d…
05-11 22:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	70	46¢	$32	0x41aff7…
05-11 22:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	114	19¢	$22	0x18e55d…
05-11 22:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0x823f5e…
05-11 21:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x0b7251…
05-11 21:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xb717cc…
05-11 21:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0x281f47…
05-11 21:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x2c94f2…
05-11 21:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xc1d05f…
05-11 21:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0x6d00dc…
05-11 21:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	33	95¢	$32	0xc8f87e…
05-11 21:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xa41cdf…
05-11 21:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xfb220b…
05-11 21:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xe6df54…
05-11 20:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	28	85¢	$24	0xc038ff…
05-11 20:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xbf3cfa…
05-11 20:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	56	56¢	$31	0x934537…
05-11 20:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x6abe2e…
05-11 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x3c7659…
05-11 20:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x778d7a…
05-11 20:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	47	77¢	$36	0xb4d532…
05-11 20:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xc468a2…
05-11 20:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x223ba6…
05-11 20:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6742b5…
05-11 20:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	17	58¢	$10	0x8fa584…
05-11 20:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd15826…