Carefree-Fort — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$3.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-07

last 07-23 23:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Tech

69% — —

Other

14% — —

Sports

9% 57% $-13

Politics

5% — —

Crypto

4% 50% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-6	$-7	88¢	$-5	+$2	07-23 10:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$556	2,367	1,600	+767	open	—	04-23 18:29
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	6	$283	847	818	+29	open	—	04-23 18:10
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	3	$229	200	200	+0	open	—	06-09 02:21
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	2	$208	127	127	+0	open	—	04-12 04:26
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	3	$153	130	130	+0	open	—	06-13 02:29
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	3	$148	110	110	+0	open	—	06-30 23:27
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	9	$143	480	480	+0	open	—	06-12 09:43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$78	167	167	+0	open	—	05-15 23:01
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	2	$75	105	105	+0	open	—	04-08 21:48
will openais valuation hit high 950b by june 30	2	$73	833	833	+0	open	—	06-25 19:46
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$70	100	70	+30	open	—	06-19 03:20
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	2	$68	125	125	+0	open	—	06-11 09:49
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	2	$67	37	43	-6	open	—	07-23 10:06
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	2	$62	280	280	+0	open	—	06-10 05:23
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$60	72	0	+72	open	—	06-11 04:52
btc updown 5m 1781852100	2	$51	28	28	+0	open	—	06-19 06:59
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	3	$47	52	52	+0	open	—	05-15 23:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$47	27	27	+0	open	—	05-01 20:41
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$44	50	0	+50	Thunder	+$6	05-05 10:23
Will Solana reach $120 in May?	3	$43	514	514	+0	open	—	05-15 23:01
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	1	$35	0	48	-48	open	—	06-01 05:20
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	1	$30	37	0	+37	open	—	07-04 05:38
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays	2	$27	18	18	+0	Tampa Bay Rays	+$7	05-06 19:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	2	$27	19	19	+0	Yes	+$7	05-06 04:52
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	2	$27	60	0	+60	open	—	06-10 08:52
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	1	$25	40	0	+40	open	—	04-30 05:30
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$25	28	0	+28	Thunder	+$3	05-06 05:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	05-15 23:02
Lightning vs. Canadiens	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	04-30 05:30
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	1	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	04-30 05:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 23:47:07	will the next claude opus model be released by july 29 2026	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x963333…
07-23 10:06:24	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	87¢	$37	0xc2c41c…
07-11 02:30:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0xb027f7…
07-09 09:14:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	107	1¢	$1	0xf2951e…
07-04 05:38:35	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xc9c4ec…
06-30 23:27:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	110	62¢	$68	0xdd79b2…
06-25 19:46:19	will openais valuation hit high 950b by june 30	Yes	SELL	833	3¢	$23	0x9770a0…
06-25 10:55:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x33ec7a…
06-19 10:05:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x1f3cb4…
06-19 07:37:40	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x94b8c2…
06-19 07:31:26	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x9c64de…
06-19 06:59:55	eth updown 5m 1781852400	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x00d165…
06-19 06:59:08	btc updown 5m 1781852100	Up	SELL	28	95¢	$26	0x024989…
06-19 06:58:53	btc updown 5m 1781852100	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x6e9cac…
06-19 03:22:56	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	BUY	55	11¢	$6	0x7dfc1c…
06-19 03:22:11	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0xcfb39e…
06-19 03:20:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	70	64¢	$45	0x2e7478…
06-17 22:01:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xd4111a…
06-17 13:58:38	cs2 tdk nem 2026 06 17	Team Nemesis	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x388c6f…
06-17 08:29:16	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x2f5d03…
06-15 08:52:48	gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf28db0…
06-13 04:34:25	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x43471a…
06-13 02:29:07	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	130	57¢	$74	0x1e0d64…
06-12 09:47:46	next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xe46536…
06-12 09:43:51	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xb205fc…
06-11 09:49:45	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	125	38¢	$48	0xfe38d3…
06-11 05:51:13	will next claude mythos debut on the text arena leaderboard at 1500	Yes	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xd0c986…
06-11 04:52:30	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	82¢	$40	0xcd36da…
06-10 20:04:25	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	84	14¢	$12	0x6b0665…
06-10 18:57:58	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0x294fef…
06-10 18:48:48	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xb4c4e4…
06-10 18:47:28	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x75e5c2…
06-10 18:44:51	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x7d4e57…
06-10 08:52:01	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0x3e1379…
06-10 05:28:25	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xb81914…
06-10 05:24:42	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x28996b…
06-10 05:23:57	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	Yes	SELL	280	14¢	$39	0xa8d9e2…
06-09 23:47:54	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	SELL	280	25¢	$70	0x69c4e4…
06-09 02:38:18	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x705aaf…
06-09 02:26:46	will openais valuation hit high 950b by june 30	Yes	BUY	833	6¢	$50	0xb070af…
06-09 02:24:58	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	Yes	BUY	280	8¢	$22	0x09a84b…
06-09 02:21:37	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xca309c…
06-08 06:28:30	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x7f25ed…
06-08 03:15:18	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x1e8d3f…
06-04 09:16:31	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x0471a0…
06-01 05:20:40	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	48	73¢	$35	0xd3465f…
05-31 13:53:45	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0x22f55b…
05-31 07:17:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x1cf796…
05-29 04:09:15	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xe12d63…
05-28 18:47:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x478380…
05-28 18:26:16	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x10c2dd…
05-27 05:17:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1?	No	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0xf3d887…
05-27 04:22:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x3cd35e…
05-27 04:00:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x7f9b27…
05-26 02:09:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x1b93e5…
05-25 11:15:00	Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong	Stan Wawrinka	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc7950a…
05-15 23:02:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x5e995d…
05-15 23:02:04	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0xdaa621…
05-15 23:01:33	Will Solana reach $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	514	3¢	$13	0x731b38…
05-15 23:01:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	23¢	$38	0x4c2294…
05-15 23:01:05	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	62¢	$21	0x83c83f…
05-13 09:11:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	24¢	$40	0xb20653…
05-09 10:12:00	Will Solana reach $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	335	6¢	$20	0x09eda3…
05-09 10:11:51	Will Solana reach $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	179	6¢	$10	0xc49850…
05-08 07:33:23	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x9d98b4…
05-08 07:32:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x01fe04…
05-06 19:14:12	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0xca5bb9…
05-06 05:27:38	Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x8c9ba8…
05-06 05:27:16	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc52123…
05-06 05:26:46	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xb6f022…
05-06 05:26:32	Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0xee1264…
05-06 05:26:22	Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x9cd6c8…
05-06 04:52:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	Yes	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x0ef7b7…
05-05 10:23:06	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x90673e…
05-04 22:51:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xfcfeb5…
05-04 22:51:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb907a0…
05-04 22:48:50	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x99b64a…
05-03 08:12:48	Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x85beaa…
05-03 07:37:56	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Raptors	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf6fac2…
05-03 07:32:42	Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	19	42¢	$8	0x643632…
05-01 20:41:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xa6e219…
05-01 20:31:40	Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk	Marta Kostyuk	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xcfdf0d…
05-01 03:38:34	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x3e86b3…
04-30 05:30:46	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Jack Della Maddalena	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xdab05d…
04-30 05:30:36	Stars vs. Wild	Wild	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x5399f9…
04-30 05:30:26	Lightning vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xdfce06…
04-30 05:30:00	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x6b68f9…
04-30 05:29:50	Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas	Fenerbahce	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xc0eeb1…
04-29 14:04:44	Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	Jannik Sinner	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x189287…
04-29 14:04:38	Jiujiang: Andre Ilagan vs James McCabe	James McCabe	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5c92d4…
04-29 04:15:26	Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics	Kansas City Royals	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x6bb6c5…
04-29 04:13:42	Magic vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x2ebd93…
04-29 04:13:20	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xb7cc3f…
04-29 04:13:12	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x0e179f…
04-24 07:33:58	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0x04711a…
04-24 07:20:38	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x605a08…
04-24 06:52:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xa75f39…
04-24 06:49:48	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x97deea…
04-23 18:29:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	17¢	$30	0x4c9b54…
04-23 18:10:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	640	19¢	$119	0x897c3c…