Cylindrical-Catastrophe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$300

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

83.5%

Resolved

Trades

222

lifetime

Volume

$159.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$719

Open exposure

$5.37K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-07 01:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 92% +$223

Other

22% 50% +$94

Politics

1% 0% -$27

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$6

Sports

0% 100% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+5,479	$5,366	98¢	$5.4K	+$0	09-27 01:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	19	$11.7K	5,893	5,893	+0	No	+$29	05-20 04:24
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$10.6K	5,302	5,302	+0	No	+$0	01-17 13:53
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	12	$8.7K	4,545	4,379	+167	No	-$5	02-16 11:32
bitcoin above 64k on march 17	2	$8.2K	4,948	3,295	+1,653	Yes	+$2	03-16 11:48
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	9	$5.8K	5,824	0	+5,824	No	+$31	05-24 15:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$5.7K	5,853	0	+5,853	No	+$181	04-07 12:16
bitcoin above 60k on march 26	1	$5.6K	5,613	0	+5,613	Yes	+$6	03-25 08:08
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$5.4K	5,479	0	+5,479	open	—	09-27 01:32
will solana reach 140 february 9 15	1	$5.3K	5,336	0	+5,336	No	+$5	02-13 09:10
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$5.3K	5,281	0	+5,281	No	+$5	01-16 01:38
solana above 190 on january 15	2	$5.3K	5,276	0	+5,276	No	+$5	01-13 03:27
bitcoin above 88k on february 5	1	$5.2K	5,171	0	+5,171	No	+$5	02-04 11:52
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	1	$5.2K	5,189	0	+5,189	No	+$26	01-25 23:01
will ethereum dip to 1400 march 9 15	1	$4.9K	4,943	0	+4,943	No	+$5	03-14 02:57
will bitcoin reach 106k january 12 18	1	$4.7K	4,661	0	+4,661	No	+$5	01-17 13:58
bitcoin above 106k on january 25	1	$4.2K	4,170	0	+4,170	No	+$4	01-23 04:42
solana above 100 on february 6	1	$3.7K	3,729	0	+3,729	No	+$4	02-06 11:25
solana above 180 on january 22	1	$3.5K	3,514	0	+3,514	No	+$4	01-19 11:43
will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	1	$3.3K	3,320	0	+3,320	No	+$7	03-06 07:56
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$3.3K	3,341	0	+3,341	Yes	+$49	03-16 11:48
will bitcoin dip to 60k in january 2026	5	$3.2K	1,608	1,608	+0	No	+$2	01-11 08:18
solana above 100 on january 2	2	$3.2K	1,596	1,596	+0	Yes	+$2	01-02 12:12
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	1	$2.9K	2,941	0	+2,941	No	+$24	03-27 02:06
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$2.7K	2,712	0	+2,712	No	+$14	03-28 02:40
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 28 2026 19corbelow	1	$2.7K	2,698	0	+2,698	No	+$3	03-27 01:32
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$2.3K	2,266	0	+2,266	No	+$8	03-23 12:22
solana above 50 on february 11	1	$2.2K	2,162	0	+2,162	Yes	+$4	02-10 12:33
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	07-03 23:17
solana above 190 on january 22	1	$1.8K	1,778	0	+1,778	No	+$2	01-19 11:43
bitcoin above 86k on january 12	1	$1.7K	1,742	0	+1,742	Yes	+$3	01-12 12:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 01:43:23	Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	451	50¢	$225	0x00c22f…
09-27 01:32:32	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5,373	98¢	$5,266	0xe48802…
09-04 23:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x671a58…
09-04 23:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0x75af90…
09-04 23:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x0fe658…
09-04 23:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x39ad38…
08-14 03:08:33	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x4edd8a…
08-14 03:07:30	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	451	59¢	$266	0x715a8f…
08-12 02:02:28	Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xaba224…
08-12 00:46:45	Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x5ad021…
08-12 00:29:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0xc354f8…
08-12 00:11:27	Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x4151ef…
08-11 15:42:00	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-11 12:00 UTC	Down	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xa7fa00…
08-11 15:42:00	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-11 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xa7fa00…
08-11 15:08:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-11 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x06b956…
08-09 06:56:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0xb756d0…
08-09 06:56:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0x5dc2c4…
08-09 06:51:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x1dd70a…
08-09 06:43:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x22f881…
08-09 06:41:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x9e9223…
08-08 08:28:01	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xc542c5…
08-08 08:27:54	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	48	53¢	$25	0x407260…
08-08 08:27:01	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	32	51¢	$16	0x0db07e…
08-08 08:26:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x1e63da…
08-08 08:26:51	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x7dba99…
08-08 08:26:49	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xba04e9…
08-08 06:32:18	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xf9ec9b…
08-08 06:28:54	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x487957…
08-08 06:20:13	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x82b71d…
08-08 06:04:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x3d94a6…
08-08 06:04:07	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0x7d08d8…
08-08 05:59:45	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x108368…
08-08 05:57:54	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	49	38¢	$19	0xd166a6…
08-08 05:57:54	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x67d5d3…
08-08 03:01:01	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xdd7dfc…
08-08 02:57:46	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x5f23ed…
08-08 02:50:19	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	40	48¢	$19	0xe3d0f6…
08-08 02:48:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x5b9249…
08-08 01:06:27	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0xfce002…
08-08 01:05:40	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x38b1ba…
08-08 00:49:03	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	43	46¢	$20	0x426b42…
08-08 00:48:31	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x14b519…
08-07 11:01:42	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x131032…
08-07 11:01:30	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x1de7f0…
08-07 11:01:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb0e355…
08-07 11:00:45	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xb5df38…
08-07 11:00:45	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8a3ea7…
08-07 11:00:42	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x9367a4…
08-07 11:00:42	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x4ef49a…
08-07 10:42:10	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x05d6cf…
08-07 10:41:46	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xee331e…
08-07 10:14:48	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	52	95¢	$49	0x73456d…
08-07 10:06:19	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xb166df…
08-07 10:00:06	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x32fa0e…
08-07 09:38:16	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xed0f7d…
08-07 09:32:39	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x45decf…
08-07 09:27:45	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x99661a…
08-01 01:51:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xcdcd7e…
08-01 01:47:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x058d73…
08-01 01:45:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x448b2d…
08-01 01:04:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	70	76¢	$53	0xfcc7e5…
08-01 01:02:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	70	76¢	$53	0xeb27b4…
08-01 01:01:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x9aba71…
08-01 01:01:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x00182e…
07-26 02:13:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x27741f…
07-26 02:11:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xbb5f47…
07-26 02:09:00	will anyone say clone during rick and morty e10 s9 20260721174118159	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xe54a1e…
07-26 02:08:15	will anyone say clone during rick and morty e10 s9 20260721174118159	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xce7ca0…
07-26 02:07:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xbd07f0…
07-26 02:05:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xae2003…
07-26 02:04:57	Who will win the gold medal in Women's Skateboard Vert at X Games New Orleans 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x18aec7…
07-25 01:32:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x0434e4…
07-25 01:31:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	400	10¢	$40	0xbec4a2…
07-25 01:31:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x3af17c…
07-25 01:31:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x8b1100…
07-25 01:31:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x1ce34a…
07-25 01:31:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	400	12¢	$48	0x25e100…
07-25 01:05:07	cs2 run2 ent2 2026 07 23 game2 round total 24pt5	Under	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xc66e0c…
07-24 00:26:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x74c40c…
07-24 00:25:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x6c3bf0…
07-22 00:01:52	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x7704ad…
07-22 00:00:39	Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x698cef…
07-03 23:17:32	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	SELL	1,000	93¢	$930	0x9f0692…
07-03 23:16:41	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xa5bb96…
07-03 23:07:44	us government removes public access to another anthropic ai model in 2026 20260703203121674	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x8c86a5…
07-03 23:00:16	us government removes public access to another anthropic ai model in 2026 20260703203121674	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x6c8077…
07-03 22:38:52	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0xd0f85d…
07-03 22:38:37	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x76955a…
06-22 00:24:17	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0x79db11…
06-22 00:23:13	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x4e576b…
06-21 01:48:26	Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?	Yes	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x534d9a…
06-21 01:47:11	Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xd2429b…
06-19 12:29:16	cs2 inf6 ruby1 2026 06 19	ex-RUBY	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x068d4e…
06-15 12:46:58	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x91d25b…
06-15 07:46:09	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	116	92¢	$107	0x38e74b…
06-14 23:39:01	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	116	92¢	$107	0x934361…
06-12 14:04:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x7eff8b…
05-24 15:05:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	BUY	3,333	100¢	$3,320	0x1defc1…
05-23 04:24:41	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$70	0x2946a4…
05-22 12:02:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3ccb70…