Quarterly-Ignorance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

3,438

Trades

32,125

lifetime

Volume

$845.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-27 10:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 109 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 52% +$35,277

Other

0% 22% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 331 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET	42	$15.9K	9,890	9,890	+0	Up	+$3,858	05-16 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	71	$13.6K	8,236	6,934	+1,302	Down	+$301	10-26 13:54
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 6pm et	100	$11.1K	6,107	6,030	+77	Down	+$1,069	04-12 23:00
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 2pm et	94	$7.4K	3,950	3,920	+30	Up	+$413	04-20 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	42	$7.2K	11,804	0	+11,804	Down	-$7,173	10-23 00:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET	98	$6.5K	6,978	0	+6,978	Down	+$509	10-23 14:34
bitcoin up or down april 18 2026 6am et	42	$5.9K	3,583	3,500	+83	Down	+$1,150	04-18 11:00
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 7pm et	92	$5.9K	3,568	3,486	+82	Down	+$1,132	04-13 00:00
bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 6am et	59	$5.4K	2,937	2,908	+29	Up	+$402	04-22 12:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET	91	$5.4K	6,687	0	+6,687	Up	+$1,315	05-03 17:43
bitcoin up or down april 10 2026 5pm et	113	$5.4K	3,102	3,046	+56	Down	+$775	04-10 22:00
bitcoin up or down april 19 2026 3am et	61	$5.2K	3,097	3,029	+68	Down	+$942	04-19 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	31	$5.1K	5,921	0	+5,921	Down	+$812	10-26 00:54
bitcoin up or down april 10 2026 6pm et	87	$4.8K	2,928	2,856	+72	Down	+$996	04-10 23:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	28	$4.5K	5,654	0	+5,654	Down	+$1,181	10-25 21:55
ethereum up or down on march 24 2026	24	$4.5K	2,768	2,730	+38	Up	+$1,031	03-24 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1AM ET	45	$4.3K	5,332	0	+5,332	Up	+$988	04-26 05:27
bitcoin up or down april 13 2026 4am et	65	$4.3K	2,634	2,569	+65	Down	+$904	04-13 09:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:40 UTC	66	$4.0K	6,679	11	+6,668	Down	+$2,652	03-18 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6PM ET	80	$4.0K	5,697	0	+5,697	Up	+$1,679	05-03 22:27
bitcoin up or down april 19 2026 6pm et	25	$4.0K	2,575	2,498	+77	Down	+$1,063	04-19 23:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 05:25 UTC	41	$3.9K	4,921	0	+4,921	Down	+$994	03-19 05:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6AM ET	87	$3.9K	5,137	0	+5,137	Up	+$1,274	04-25 10:34
bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 6pm et	28	$3.8K	4,064	0	+4,064	Up	+$287	04-23 22:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12PM ET	50	$3.7K	5,322	0	+5,322	Up	+$1,656	04-25 16:56
bitcoin up or down april 10 2026 10am et	30	$3.6K	2,063	2,029	+34	Up	+$464	04-10 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET	109	$3.5K	6,301	0	+6,301	Down	-$3,483	05-01 16:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:40 UTC	91	$3.5K	4,856	0	+4,856	Down	+$1,337	03-18 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7PM ET	34	$3.5K	1,838	1,789	+49	Down	+$98	10-25 23:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 18:40 UTC	53	$3.4K	3,947	0	+3,947	Up	+$505	03-20 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:26:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x890f79…
10-27 12:26:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	112	8¢	$9	0xaf9e7a…
10-27 12:26:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	59	8¢	$5	0x68883c…
10-27 12:26:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	126	8¢	$10	0xfd9c2d…
10-27 10:51:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x619add…
10-27 10:51:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x3e938b…
10-27 10:51:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	68	79¢	$53	0x1d5d40…
10-27 10:50:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x6ecc1f…
10-27 10:50:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x92509b…
10-27 10:49:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	125	85¢	$106	0xf3e782…
10-27 10:48:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	116	87¢	$101	0xa51300…
10-27 10:48:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0xf96a2e…
10-27 10:48:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x106ffd…
10-27 10:48:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	289	87¢	$252	0x67d73e…
10-27 10:48:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	72	91¢	$66	0x0a3503…
10-27 10:48:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	112	90¢	$101	0x06c22f…
10-27 10:47:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x0823a2…
10-27 10:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	508	91¢	$462	0x72153b…
10-27 10:47:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x039878…
10-27 10:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	508	91¢	$462	0x713a1b…
10-27 10:47:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0xffd74c…
10-27 10:46:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	90¢	$34	0xe03fe1…
10-27 10:46:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0x64e66a…
10-27 10:46:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x63d899…
10-27 10:46:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x4f14e0…
10-27 10:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	76	5¢	$4	0xa1192d…
10-27 06:20:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x5603de…
10-27 06:20:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	92	10¢	$10	0xfe3f60…
10-27 06:20:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0xf91861…
10-27 06:19:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	87	13¢	$11	0x4e856d…
10-26 23:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0xf8839e…
10-26 23:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	168	8¢	$13	0x4a5bf6…
10-26 23:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	105	10¢	$10	0x7add29…
10-26 23:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xa9ea45…
10-26 23:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	105	9¢	$9	0xb75f1b…
10-26 22:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x5078fe…
10-26 22:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x858e53…
10-26 22:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x08fc5b…
10-26 22:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x86a8ab…
10-26 22:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	67	6¢	$4	0x4f8997…
10-26 17:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xc20dcd…
10-26 15:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	45	5¢	$2	0x45bc3b…
10-26 15:35:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd1be73…
10-26 15:34:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x13fae2…
10-26 15:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	57	77¢	$44	0x629a4c…
10-26 15:21:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xf93af2…
10-26 14:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	175	88¢	$154	0x094fb6…
10-26 14:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	139	90¢	$125	0x7fcfcd…
10-26 14:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x56ada1…
10-26 14:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	149	87¢	$130	0x900651…
10-26 14:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xd3a485…
10-26 14:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x52bed6…
10-26 14:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0xd9526c…
10-26 14:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	36	87¢	$31	0x8400e7…
10-26 14:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	66	87¢	$57	0x052ad4…
10-26 14:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	111	87¢	$97	0x6a599c…
10-26 14:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	63	87¢	$55	0xfb48a7…
10-26 14:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x2b6926…
10-26 14:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	99	87¢	$86	0xf21a0c…
10-26 13:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	5,001	100¢	$4,996	0x958ab7…
10-26 13:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	1,933	100¢	$1,931	0x6aaed3…
10-26 13:47:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	479	40¢	$192	0x439994…
10-26 13:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	103	95¢	$98	0xbad6e9…
10-26 13:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	140	94¢	$132	0x3a4641…
10-26 13:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	56	94¢	$53	0xa946e3…
10-26 13:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x95068c…
10-26 13:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	72	95¢	$68	0xf2c9bb…
10-26 13:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x4174cf…
10-26 13:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	279	96¢	$268	0x4f5098…
10-26 13:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	279	95¢	$265	0x445678…
10-26 13:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	129	94¢	$121	0x7be91e…
10-26 13:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xb9bdc8…
10-26 13:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	114	91¢	$104	0x4f5991…
10-26 13:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	90	91¢	$82	0x7a82f1…
10-26 13:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	479	34¢	$162	0xea8352…
10-26 13:45:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xa84e84…
10-26 13:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x902b9f…
10-26 13:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0xe09861…
10-26 13:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	93	95¢	$88	0x0e326f…
10-26 13:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	148	95¢	$141	0x70e15e…
10-26 13:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0xb53489…
10-26 13:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0xb1af7d…
10-26 13:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	78	93¢	$73	0x858f45…
10-26 13:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	78	93¢	$73	0x7d4a09…
10-26 13:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	168	95¢	$159	0xcb0700…
10-26 13:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x881172…
10-26 13:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	151	93¢	$140	0x6d2090…
10-26 13:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	336	94¢	$316	0xc03803…
10-26 13:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	215	94¢	$202	0x60c3d6…
10-26 13:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	241	94¢	$228	0xf5c2ad…
10-26 13:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	434	94¢	$408	0x3c97a8…
10-26 13:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	369	95¢	$349	0xff2359…
10-26 13:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	434	94¢	$408	0xd6dce0…
10-26 13:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	306	95¢	$291	0x76453f…
10-26 13:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	312	94¢	$293	0x0aba42…
10-26 13:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x0b387a…
10-26 13:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x792d4e…
10-26 13:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	235	91¢	$214	0xa86ab0…
10-26 13:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	367	92¢	$337	0x705e09…
10-26 13:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x60e851…