Wary-Seal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$669

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

29.7%

Resolved

127

Trades

2,999

lifetime

Volume

$120.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-21 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

81% 31% $-668

Politics

14% 0% $-1

Sports

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No		-22	$-2	32¢	$-7	$-5	05-28 07:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	8	$2.4K	2,016	2,016	+0	Nikoloz Basilashvili	+$1	05-11 05:44
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud	3	$1.6K	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	05-18 11:12
Cordoba: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Renzo Olivo	13	$1.6K	959	959	+0	Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi	$-8	05-12 14:13
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	8	$1.4K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-25 02:22
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund	13	$1.4K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 04:18
Will Aspen Miller win Breakaway Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	8	$1.2K	1,289	1,289	+0	open	—	05-15 16:26
Tunis: Laurent Lokoli vs Federico Agustin Gomez	10	$1.1K	1,005	1,005	+0	Laurent Lokoli	$-0	05-13 09:15
Will Sam Petersen win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	23	$1.1K	821	821	+0	open	—	05-11 03:33
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	6	$1.1K	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	05-14 08:46
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	13	$1.1K	1,020	1,001	+19	open	—	05-24 03:54
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	2	$1.1K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-15 01:01
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami	24	$1.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 06:14
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden	27	$1.0K	1,002	851	+151	open	—	06-01 13:50
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	5	$999	1,004	1,004	+0	open	—	05-27 19:43
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	8	$969	550	550	+0	open	—	05-15 12:53
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals	13	$962	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-17 07:06
Oeiras 4: Roman Safiullin vs Laslo Djere	15	$901	1,001	1,001	+0	Laslo Djere	+$0	05-13 04:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$856	719	719	+0	open	—	05-28 15:40
Oeiras 4: Henrique Rocha vs Roman Safiullin	2	$851	1,001	1,001	+0	Roman Safiullin	$-30	05-11 01:13
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	8	$848	501	501	+0	open	—	05-16 06:11
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	16	$842	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-23 21:09
Bengaluru 2: Alex Hernandez vs Yuta Kawahashi	4	$827	629	629	+0	Yuta Kawahashi	$-3	05-11 02:40
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Nishesh Basavareddy	3	$815	1,006	1,006	+0	Tomas Barrios	$-70	05-13 09:45
Bengaluru 3: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Kriish Tyagi	8	$812	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 09:40
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	2	$812	501	501	+0	open	—	05-26 00:50
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli	16	$790	987	987	+0	Laurent Lokoli	$-0	05-12 06:16
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	15	$782	1,613	1,263	+350	open	—	05-14 08:40
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	2	$777	501	501	+0	open	—	05-15 01:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$773	502	424	+78	open	—	05-28 15:39
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	10	$756	502	502	+0	open	—	05-30 15:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 12:35:51	bitcoin up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x07148c…
07-21 09:49:55	will mrbeast say trap during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829401	Yes	SELL	41	4¢	$2	0x9b8288…
07-21 09:49:25	will mrbeast say dollar 10 times during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829393	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0x15ba13…
07-21 09:48:55	will warsh say renovation during july press conference 20260720204109059	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0xaa204e…
07-21 09:48:19	will warsh say consumer confidence during july press conference 20260720204109053	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xc9e78f…
07-21 08:49:00	will kevin fagan advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738454	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xb3f5fd…
07-21 07:34:31	will warsh say central bank during july press conference 20260720204109041	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xfed16a…
07-21 07:34:07	will warsh say central bank during july press conference 20260720204109041	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0xe4159e…
07-21 07:25:34	will warsh say renovation during july press conference 20260720204109059	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x6292d9…
07-21 06:39:25	will warsh say consumer confidence during july press conference 20260720204109053	No	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0x3606c5…
07-21 06:13:46	will mrbeast say dollar 10 times during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829393	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x464b97…
07-21 05:13:03	will warsh say central bank during july press conference 20260720204109041	Yes	BUY	21	83¢	$17	0x7eacb7…
07-21 05:10:33	will warsh say bet or betting during july press conference 20260720204109038	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x5d3153…
07-21 05:08:31	will warsh say echo of history during july press conference 20260720204109034	No	BUY	45	76¢	$34	0xf490ea…
07-21 05:06:25	will warsh say groupthink or group think during july press conference 20260720204109032	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x645778…
07-21 05:04:27	will warsh say task force 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109030	No	BUY	35	82¢	$29	0xe30310…
07-21 03:48:42	over 90m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129616	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x7ca2d2…
07-21 03:47:39	over 90m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129616	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x002d0d…
07-21 03:45:57	over 500k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129595	No	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x297e62…
07-21 03:43:21	will warsh say trump during july press conference 20260720204109039	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x687c78…
07-21 03:42:06	will warsh say productivity during july press conference 20260720204109042	Yes	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x1bb492…
07-21 03:41:03	will warsh say trump during july press conference 20260720204109039	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x214d7b…
07-21 03:25:15	will warsh say ai or artificial intelligence during july press conference 20260720204109043	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xaef92b…
07-21 03:13:04	will warsh say inflation 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109028	Yes	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0x171af0…
07-21 03:10:01	will trumps remarks not air 20260720190340729	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0xd81a42…
07-21 03:09:03	will trumps remarks not air 20260720190340729	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x8ac661…
07-21 02:54:55	will warsh say inflation 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109028	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2b8c2f…
07-21 02:52:04	will trump say six seven this week 20260719005322432	Yes	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0xc1981f…
07-21 02:50:42	will trump say six seven this week 20260719005322432	Yes	BUY	26	10¢	$3	0xc59c89…
07-21 02:49:36	will mrbeast say fortnite during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723134	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0xba0ecb…
07-21 02:49:15	will mrbeast say minecraft during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723133	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x716386…
07-21 02:48:30	will mrbeast say lose or loser during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829406	No	SELL	44	92¢	$41	0x29e89a…
07-21 02:48:09	will mrbeast say fight during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829399	No	SELL	51	89¢	$45	0x638126…
07-21 02:47:27	will mrbeast say fortnite during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723134	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x0d81d1…
07-21 02:47:16	will mrbeast say minecraft during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152723133	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xfad780…
07-21 02:47:06	will mrbeast say darius during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829409	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x53116c…
07-21 02:46:57	will mrbeast say lose or loser during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829406	No	BUY	44	92¢	$41	0xe0a626…
07-21 02:46:42	will mrbeast say fight during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829399	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x9c0034…
07-21 02:32:45	over 750k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129596	No	SELL	101	2¢	$2	0xefcfe3…
07-21 02:31:25	over 750k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129596	No	BUY	101	3¢	$3	0x875f33…
07-21 01:59:18	spy closes above 750 on july 21 2026	Yes	SELL	80	9¢	$7	0x697c86…
07-21 01:57:07	spy closes above 750 on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x6dba54…
07-21 01:54:48	will mrbeast say trap during his next gaming youtube video 20260713152829401	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x06a740…
07-21 01:48:48	val orat rvn3 2026 07 20 game3 round handicap orat 2pt5	ORA Temper	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x4606a5…
07-21 01:48:15	val orat rvn3 2026 07 20 game3 round total 21pt5	Under	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x1bd1c9…
07-21 01:46:31	val orat rvn3 2026 07 20 game3 round handicap orat 2pt5	ORA Temper	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb58180…
07-21 01:45:19	val orat rvn3 2026 07 20 game3 round total 21pt5	Under	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x626c81…
07-21 01:31:06	bitcoin up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	101	42¢	$42	0x0fcc2a…
07-18 09:21:07	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 21 2026 20260717132724268	No	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0xd6bc9f…
07-18 09:08:55	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	No	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x821249…
07-18 09:08:42	will apple aapl q3 ipad revenue be above 6b 20260717034957303	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x64f850…
07-18 09:08:22	will microsoft msft q4 total capital expenditures be above 56b 20260717035757354	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x943ef6…
07-18 09:07:12	will apple aapl q3 greater china revenue be above 20b 20260717035254128	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0xb7823c…
07-18 08:58:01	will apple aapl q3 iphone revenue be above 56pt5b 20260717035215862	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x4ff598…
07-18 08:54:22	will apple aapl q3 mac revenue be above 9pt5b 20260717034907915	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0xf38056…
07-18 08:49:16	will microsoft msft q4 total capital expenditures be above 56b 20260717035757354	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xaf6b25…
07-18 08:42:10	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 21 2026 20260717132724268	No	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x51162c…
07-18 08:40:48	will apple aapl q3 greater china revenue be above 20b 20260717035254128	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf1f280…
07-18 08:23:37	will apple aapl q3 greater china revenue be above 19b 20260717035254127	Yes	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x6ea67e…
07-18 08:21:24	columbus air quality index below 100 by july 20 2026 20260717132724267	No	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x285349…
07-16 07:03:02	will ewy reach 187 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0xa8638d…
07-16 04:14:07	will googl dip to 350 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x2a8318…
07-16 04:11:20	will googl dip to 350 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x69d7e6…
07-16 03:47:23	will ewy reach 185 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0x249f18…
07-16 03:46:29	will ewy reach 185 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x005ab2…
07-16 01:08:04	will ewy reach 189 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	21	90¢	$19	0x02f934…
07-16 00:50:58	will ewy reach 187 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x7246a4…
07-16 00:50:58	will ewy reach 189 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0x068a79…
07-15 15:22:13	bitcoin up or down on july 15 2026	Up	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x38513c…
07-15 14:25:10	lol ts kc 2026 07 15 game1	Karmine Corp	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0xecaa4e…
07-15 13:46:56	ewy up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0x3b759c…
07-15 13:25:13	lol ly jdg 2026 07 15	JD Gaming	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x5ea50e…
07-15 12:50:25	bitcoin up or down on july 15 2026	Up	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x7cdde1…
07-12 11:48:19	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	No	SELL	96	42¢	$40	0xe3aee6…
07-06 02:35:02	will meta reach 650 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	94	6¢	$6	0x46431c…
07-06 02:34:32	will meta reach 650 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	94	7¢	$7	0xf2bf4c…
07-06 02:30:07	will aapl dip to 304 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xe5d426…
07-06 02:29:41	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113086	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0xf6243a…
07-06 02:29:20	will aapl dip to 300 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x8420d3…
07-06 02:28:58	will aapl dip to 300 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x732eae…
07-06 02:26:25	will aapl reach 312 by july 6 2026	No	SELL	40	36¢	$14	0x604daf…
07-06 02:25:43	will aapl reach 312 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0x2a07c5…
07-06 01:40:43	will the announcers say fan 5 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113089	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x028188…
07-06 01:39:55	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0xbb97e0…
07-06 01:16:47	will the announcers say ronaldo during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113107	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xf28f38…
07-06 01:03:13	will the announcers say qatar or russia during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913606	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x207506…
07-06 01:03:10	will the announcers say qatar or russia during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913606	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xad231f…
07-06 01:02:22	will the announcers say qatar or russia during the brazil vs norway fifa world cup match 20260705030913606	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0xbf32cb…
07-05 22:19:53	will the announcers say fan 5 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113089	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x650f82…
07-05 22:18:52	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$31	0x7759ea…
07-05 22:13:23	will the announcers say extra time during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113095	No	SELL	25	33¢	$8	0xfb2607…
07-05 22:10:37	will the announcers say extra time during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113095	No	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0xaa4020…
07-05 22:04:23	will sydney eugene be eliminated from love island usa this week 20260626220759032	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x492ba6…
07-05 22:02:01	will the announcers say altitude during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113092	No	SELL	70	7¢	$5	0xa8ce22…
07-05 22:01:22	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113085	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x458fb8…
07-05 22:00:41	will the announcers say ref or referee 10 times during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113085	Yes	BUY	42	63¢	$26	0xec2533…
07-05 21:58:07	will the announcers say altitude during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113092	No	BUY	70	7¢	$5	0x1edaaa…
07-05 21:51:19	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xed8510…
07-05 21:50:43	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	No	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0x822d54…
07-05 21:50:17	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	No	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x739d91…