Wary-Seal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$669

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

29.7%

Resolved

127

Trades

2,767

lifetime

Volume

$117.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-30 22:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

82% 31% $-668

Politics

14% 0% $-1

Sports

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No		-22	$-2	23¢	$-5	$-3	05-28 07:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	8	$2.4K	2,016	2,016	+0	Nikoloz Basilashvili	+$1	05-11 05:44
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud	3	$1.6K	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	05-18 11:12
Cordoba: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Renzo Olivo	13	$1.6K	959	959	+0	Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi	$-8	05-12 14:13
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng	8	$1.4K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-25 02:22
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund	13	$1.4K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 04:18
Will Aspen Miller win Breakaway Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	8	$1.2K	1,289	1,289	+0	open	—	05-15 16:26
Tunis: Laurent Lokoli vs Federico Agustin Gomez	10	$1.1K	1,005	1,005	+0	Laurent Lokoli	$-0	05-13 09:15
Will Sam Petersen win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend?	23	$1.1K	821	821	+0	open	—	05-11 03:33
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	6	$1.1K	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	05-14 08:46
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	13	$1.1K	1,020	1,001	+19	open	—	05-24 03:54
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	2	$1.1K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-15 01:01
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami	24	$1.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 06:14
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden	27	$1.0K	1,002	851	+151	open	—	06-01 13:50
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	5	$999	1,004	1,004	+0	open	—	05-27 19:43
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	8	$969	550	550	+0	open	—	05-15 12:53
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals	13	$962	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-17 07:06
Oeiras 4: Roman Safiullin vs Laslo Djere	15	$901	1,001	1,001	+0	Laslo Djere	+$0	05-13 04:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$856	719	719	+0	open	—	05-28 15:40
Oeiras 4: Henrique Rocha vs Roman Safiullin	2	$851	1,001	1,001	+0	Roman Safiullin	$-30	05-11 01:13
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	8	$848	501	501	+0	open	—	05-16 06:11
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	16	$842	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-23 21:09
Bengaluru 2: Alex Hernandez vs Yuta Kawahashi	4	$827	629	629	+0	Yuta Kawahashi	$-3	05-11 02:40
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Nishesh Basavareddy	3	$815	1,006	1,006	+0	Tomas Barrios	$-70	05-13 09:45
Bengaluru 3: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Kriish Tyagi	8	$812	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	05-19 09:40
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	2	$812	501	501	+0	open	—	05-26 00:50
Tunis: Ilia Simakin vs Laurent Lokoli	16	$790	987	987	+0	Laurent Lokoli	$-0	05-12 06:16
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	15	$782	1,613	1,263	+350	open	—	05-14 08:40
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	2	$777	501	501	+0	open	—	05-15 01:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$773	502	424	+78	open	—	05-28 15:39
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	10	$756	502	502	+0	open	—	05-30 15:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 22:05:01	wti closes above 76 on july 1 2026	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x9ed68a…
06-30 22:04:23	wti closes above 76 on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf1dae0…
06-30 21:29:02	will polymarket mindshare hit 90 by december 31 20260630144203050	No	SELL	43	86¢	$37	0x85438d…
06-30 21:27:50	will polymarket mindshare hit 90 by december 31 20260630144203050	No	BUY	43	86¢	$37	0x75f0ca…
06-30 10:41:58	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0xb15f22…
06-26 21:35:46	will t1 make finals at msi 2026 20260622172025738	Yes	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0xfb1714…
06-26 21:34:32	will t1 make finals at msi 2026 20260622172025738	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x293f88…
06-26 21:34:31	will t1 make finals at msi 2026 20260622172025738	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xcbfd10…
06-26 21:12:52	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x7cfd51…
06-26 21:12:52	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	Yes	SELL	110	5¢	$6	0x4dc32f…
06-26 21:11:46	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	Yes	BUY	110	6¢	$7	0x05e4a6…
06-26 21:11:44	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x7a4774…
06-26 20:55:10	will t1 outperform blg at msi 2026 20260624124505284	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x2775c6…
06-26 20:54:31	will t1 outperform blg at msi 2026 20260624124505284	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xc6429e…
06-23 00:15:38	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x9eef6c…
06-23 00:00:17	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	26	82¢	$21	0xd0db45…
06-22 06:14:31	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x99a1e2…
06-22 04:27:37	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	26	68¢	$17	0x325a5e…
06-22 00:02:40	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	150	84¢	$126	0x5c5915…
06-22 00:01:47	will ng reach 3 80 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x445757…
06-21 23:53:02	will meta reach 640 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xce6e57…
06-21 23:52:04	will meta reach 640 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xf83a03…
06-21 23:15:32	will ng reach 3 80 by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0x5ce95b…
06-21 23:14:49	will ng reach 3 70 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x220d32…
06-21 23:14:14	will ng reach 3 80 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x89e4d6…
06-21 23:00:28	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x2891d9…
06-21 23:00:10	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xced969…
06-21 22:58:52	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x8e87d0…
06-20 11:12:16	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	19	67¢	$13	0x1c0aad…
06-17 15:41:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	79	94¢	$75	0x6e77bb…
06-17 11:47:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026 585	No	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0x4d415b…
06-17 11:46:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x96a86e…
06-17 08:27:17	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	79	42¢	$33	0xe36028…
06-17 01:43:55	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x677c50…
06-17 01:33:38	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa83f55…
06-17 00:31:16	will king abdullah ii attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204728	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$5	0x3b0a8f…
06-17 00:30:56	will king abdullah ii attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204728	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x5060ba…
06-17 00:30:34	will pete hegseth attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204737	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x2b4d81…
06-17 00:29:55	will benjamin netanyahu attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204734	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x097f69…
06-17 00:29:29	will marco rubio attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204731	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x60a1e3…
06-17 00:28:58	will benjamin netanyahu attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204734	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd35aaa…
06-17 00:27:47	will marco rubio attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204731	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x20c41b…
06-17 00:27:28	will pete hegseth attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204737	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x045ae9…
06-17 00:10:47	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	No	SELL	25	24¢	$6	0xfc4f5d…
06-17 00:10:17	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	No	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0x0b6c17…
06-16 23:48:43	will abdel fattah el sisi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204735	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x43231e…
06-16 23:47:40	will abdel fattah el sisi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204735	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x68653c…
06-16 22:44:47	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	No	SELL	74	88¢	$65	0x81fa46…
06-16 22:44:16	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x78c333…
06-16 22:44:10	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xf2425c…
06-16 22:44:05	will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	No	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0xc637a0…
06-16 16:41:14	william saliba 20260609174813082	Yes	SELL	60	91¢	$54	0x65a4f3…
06-16 04:43:12	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0xa035e9…
06-16 03:04:10	will the announcers say shot 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513553	No	SELL	30	59¢	$18	0x361f0f…
06-16 02:30:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xf20b47…
06-16 02:29:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x9f679b…
06-16 02:29:09	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xde8642…
06-16 02:28:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xe15899…
06-16 02:28:18	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xf43d85…
06-16 02:21:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	101	40¢	$40	0x68f5fc…
06-16 02:03:03	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x97e271…
06-16 01:27:42	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xdf28d5…
06-16 01:27:39	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0xbbfc64…
06-16 01:24:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5f69fd…
06-16 01:21:00	will the announcers say shot 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513553	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x4b488b…
06-16 01:18:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0x87e5bb…
06-16 01:11:21	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x413662…
06-16 01:10:36	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x55c2fa…
06-16 00:45:27	will the announcers say golden boot during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513571	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x71a394…
06-16 00:40:57	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x0e0e69…
06-16 00:33:16	will the announcers say ronaldo during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513558	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x5f6ca4…
06-16 00:32:49	will the announcers say foul 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513551	Yes	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0xb29726…
06-16 00:31:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	110	54¢	$60	0x4c02f9…
06-16 00:30:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	110	55¢	$61	0xb9e245…
06-16 00:23:45	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xb19e89…
06-16 00:23:33	will the announcers say foul 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513551	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x76260d…
06-16 00:09:12	will the announcers say foul 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513551	Yes	SELL	31	80¢	$25	0x0d9e79…
06-16 00:07:48	will the announcers say ronaldo during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513558	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x7d7320…
06-16 00:06:00	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9578db…
06-16 00:02:06	will the announcers say foul 20 times during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513551	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x099beb…
06-15 23:48:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0x2793dd…
06-15 23:48:33	will the announcers say golden boot during the england vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260615191513571	Yes	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x7ab2a1…
06-15 23:47:39	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$1	0x13e026…
06-15 23:34:45	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xa75a9c…
06-15 23:33:36	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0x791e99…
06-15 23:32:34	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x813b1e…
06-15 23:27:00	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x4e1710…
06-15 23:16:42	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	Yes	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x3181a4…
06-15 16:27:09	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xb43928…
06-15 16:26:52	will king abdullah ii sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950084	No	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x2d7895…
06-15 16:26:34	will marco rubio sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950069	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0xff17dd…
06-15 16:09:51	lol sly gal 2026 06 15 game2	Solary	SELL	125	69¢	$86	0x9cf883…
06-15 15:38:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xb98755…
06-15 15:38:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	94	96¢	$90	0x5b5740…
06-15 15:33:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	70	66¢	$46	0x650d90…
06-15 15:32:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x9b05af…
06-15 15:21:16	lol sly gal 2026 06 15 game2	Solary	SELL	125	54¢	$67	0x536734…
06-15 15:15:28	lol sly gal 2026 06 15 game2	Solary	BUY	221	56¢	$124	0x669419…
06-15 15:15:21	lol sly gal 2026 06 15 game2	Solary	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7b5de6…
06-15 15:15:21	lol sly gal 2026 06 15 game2	Solary	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0x0421bb…